"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

lol y'all look at that shit?

Can't find a source for those odds. Are you misinterpreting the graph on oddsshark (which cuts off on september 1)?

Meantime

New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here).

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 27, 2020

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Where does this notion come from that betting odds operate on some sort of secret knowledge unavailable to normies

lol probably from personal experiences of losing all bets by 1pt

Can't find a source for those odds. Are you misinterpreting the graph on oddsshark (which cuts off on september 1)?

― Dan I., Tuesday, October 27, 2020 11:16 AM (five minutes ago)

exactly, it was a hyperbolic tweet with that graph with the dates conveniently snipped off.

now back to your regularly scheduled programming...

Unlike e.g. 538 model, betting markets can price in the (perceived) probability that the election will be stolen.

it's not a secret

http://www.betsmart.co/how-do-oddsmakers-set-lines/

To guarantee a profit, bookmakers need to ensure that the picks coming in for each team in each matchup are as close to 50/50 as possible (if you are unsure why, read up on What are Sportsbook Margins?). But what happens if something suddenly changes? A star player gets injured in training or a big trade happens? What if the bookmaker misread where people were going to put money and set the opening prices incorrectly?

Money will start coming in more on one side than the other and the oddsmaker becomes “exposed”. There is the potential for the oddsmaker to have to payout more than they took on the event if the side with the most action wins!

To help avert disaster scenarios like this, oddsmakers are constantly monitoring the picks that are coming in to ensure that they are as close to 50/50 as possible in order to preserve their profit margin.

And if there are a bunch of folks out there with secret knowledge (republican legislators who know exactly what they're plotting behind close doors), that might appear in the markets xpost

that doesn't mean they can be indicative of who is going to win (the better/more probable victor is usually favored) but if they lines move - that doesn't indicate necessarily that they have changed their opinion on who's going to win, it may be the money is coming in lopsided

right but money could be coming in lopsided for a good reason

sure, i'm just saying there's a tendency for people to read changes in vegas odds like changes in polling data and it's not the same thing

The Lincoln Project to build out its media business after the electionhttps://t.co/7eu5ITGPdP

— Jack Brewster (@jbruce218) October 27, 2020

It’s about time for Bill Maher to go away forever, maybe they can take his spot on HBO.

we need a john wilkes booth project immediately https://t.co/Y3Sxcv60T3

— Brandy Jensen (@BrandyLJensen) October 27, 2020

my sportsbook is now at Biden -190 and Trump +145, which is quite a terrible spread (they're pretty bad with any non-sports bets), but still, that's about as good for Biden as it's ever been. I got a max bet in when Biden was at -115 a few weeks ago (pre-debate, I think)

as ums mentioned the numbers don't mean much but where they expect most of the action to fall. as far as I can tell, a lot of gamblers are pro-Trump, or expect him to win. doesn't mean much, these guys are notoriously shit when it comes to prognosticating politics. I would imagine a lot of it is just FOMO from not grabbing Trump post-grab 'em by the pussy when his odds were at like +700 or whatever

I take that back, Trump is actually favored (-105) now.

― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, October 27, 2020 1:29 PM bookmarkflaglink

the betting markets like Betfair etc though have Biden 64-36 currently

which considering the info ums et al posted above, pretty damn good odds

And if there are a bunch of folks out there with secret knowledge (republican legislators who know exactly what they're plotting behind close doors), that might appear in the markets xpost

― Dan I., Tuesday, October 27, 2020 2:25 PM bookmarkflaglink

that's a reach. if that were the case, it'd be easy as hell to win bets by just following the pumps and dumps

Biden in GA?

most books offer bad odds and have a low max for that reason. I wanted to put my whole account on Biden but it only let me bet $100. anytime a sportsbook offers a non-sports bet it's purely for fun and to draw people in

In the UK, William Hill is offering 50-1 odds on a 45 win.

Channel Four news on US redneck safari as I write.

TOTAL CONFIDENCE. The Trump brand is so strong, he doesn't need to advertise! MAGA MAGA MAGA! *has aneurysm, shits self, dies*

Trump Pulls Florida Ads as Cash-Poor Campaign Enters Final Week

President Donald Trump’s campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016.

Since the beginning of the fall campaign on Labor Day, Trump has cut $24 million from his national ad budget, while former Vice President Joe Biden has added $197 million. Biden has outspent Trump three-to-one over that time.

Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he’s down in all those states but Ohio, where it’s effectively even.

The president still has $350,275 budgeted to spend on ads in Florida through Election Day, but has canceled $5.5 million in the final two weeks of the campaign, according to data compiled from ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics.

The Trump campaign says its organizational strength in Florida will carry it into Trump’s column on Election Night as Republicans get more in-person voters to the polls.

Speaking of MAGA, was it something someone posted here or somewhere else that pointed out how important chants and mantras are to cult members? Drain the swamp, lock her up, etc.

There's a practical take on that which I read saying that given the difference in early voting levels it would make more sense to concentrate on said states vs. Florida and its expense. But even so.

Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania

Spending in Michigan and Minnesota and not Wisconsin seems too dumb even for the Trump campaign. But whatever, maybe they know something I don't know.

We call that Pulling a Hillary '16.

Minnesota is an "industrial" state, huh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ViEzjcc6sE

BREAKING: NBC moves historically-red Texas to "tossup" in presidential race. #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/1dMFc7srvV

— Antonio Arellano (@AntonioArellano) October 27, 2020

A recent Politico article reported that Trump has been "fixated on Minnesota" since 2016. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/14/minnesota-swing-states-425366

just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania

That list of states has Trump's tiny fingerprints smeared all over it. He has a hard time learning new facts, but he still remembers his electoral college map from 2016 and he figures if they did it for him once, they can do it again. He figures DeSantos will deliver FL for him.

I obtained a copy of the "health care plan" that Kayleigh McEnany handed to Lesley Stahl in that massive binder. It was a large print list of bullet pointed highlights and slogans that was 10 pages long (including back and front covers). https://t.co/90P0xNlDx3

— Hunter Walker (@hunterw) October 27, 2020

wonder if the Minnesota fixation has to do with his attacks on Ilhan Omar drawing such a rowdy response

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/10/27/louis-dejoys-october-surprise/

I hope if Biden wins, trash like Dejoy are prosecuted for the things they have done

wonder if the Minnesota fixation has to do with his attacks on Ilhan Omar drawing such a rowdy response

― frogbs, Tuesday, October 27, 2020 3:40 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

50% hating Omar
50% wanting to bring it home for the My Pillow guy

Big early vote milestone via Elections Project: at 69.2 million votes, the early total is now over 50% of the entire voting total from 2016.

Y'al were curious about Cuban American voters?

https://www.newyorker.com/news/us-journal/how-pro-trump-disinformation-is-swaying-a-new-generation-of-cuban-american-voters

EP adds this'll mean going over 70 million by the day's end (and then some, I'm guessing) and I'm pretty well guessing we hit 72 million first thing tomorrow morning, maintaining the six million a day pace. If that holds, by Saturday morning we'd be at 90 million and 100 million by Election Day morning itself is thoroughly possible, even with Texas finishing early voting on Friday.

Getting a lot of those enthusiastic, motivated votes banked early hopefully frees up Dem organizers to get more less motivated voters out to the polls on or before Election Day.

all the early voting favoring Dems seems like a pretty good thing in a pandemic - even if Trump voters are enthusiastic, how many of them are really willing to stand for several hours in the cold and risk a life threatening disease to cast a vote for a candidate most people think is going to get crushed anyway?

and the total vote in 2016 was what... 130 million?

ah, 136.5 million. fucking libertarians.

136 million is what I saw referenced earlier today.

all the early voting favoring Dems seems like a pretty good thing in a pandemic - even if Trump voters are enthusiastic, how many of them are really willing to stand for several hours in the cold and risk a life threatening disease to cast a vote for a candidate most people think is going to get crushed anyway?

― frogbs, Tuesday, October 27, 2020 4:06 PM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah agreed, who knows....a vote counted now is a vote counted now...it could be something as you get a flat tire, who knows

Can we somehow trick 20 million Trump voters into giving themselves explosive diarrhea on election day

Talk about "exit polls," amirite?

Early returns

A tan wave election

Alfred, read that article, and tbh, all it really told me is that there are a load of 29-45 year old Cubans in Miami who aren't too smart. The quote from one left-leaning Cuban who laments that 'historical memory is short' is the definition of understatement-- it's as if people like Otaola are living in another dimension.