"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

xpost only thing I don't like about the second article is they claim Wasserman predicted Trump's victory, when, in the link to his article, he emphatically says it's not a prediction, but a possibility.

but a good article nonetheless

From the Vanity Fair piece:

Bottom line?

Trump would need to win all of the states that are really close in the polls right now: Florida, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina. Those are prerequisites for a Trump victory. And then he’s gotta break through in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Arizona to have a pathway to replicating his success in 2016. And right now that’s just very hard to see. I could actually see Biden doing better in Arizona than in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

…Keep in mind also that the piece of turf that, in my view, is most likely to flip from Trump 2016 to Biden 2020 is in Omaha, Nebraska: Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, where the district-level polling shows Joe Biden ahead in some cases by double digits.

despite everything having this panic set in yesterday and today, feeling like trump is going to win

it's happening to me too, it's probably because there's so much to lose in our minds now and our brains know all of the bullshit that's happened over the last 4 years that our faith has dwindled.

i'm trying to distract myself mostly.

One thing I appreciate about keeping an eye on both Wasserman and Elections Project is that while they're both providing some useful and sanguine info, they do have different areas of focus and don't always agree on what they're seeing -- they've sparred/subtweeted each other before -- so even though both are thinking this is Biden's, they can still snipe a bit. Thus:

Florida's early vote is sending a confirming signal the state will be close. Registered Democrats lead in the early vote:

2016: +96,450 reg Dem
2020: +302,282 reg Dem

Trump 2016 margin: +112,911

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) October 27, 2020

FL's early vote data tells us virtually nothing about the vote preferences of the final electorate. We do have plenty of other evidence, however, that the state will be close. https://t.co/LvRRx7Bv2D

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 27, 2020

And in response to that!

I honestly don't know why some people stubbornly refuse to look at all election data as a whole https://t.co/7cVYYPDTPu

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) October 27, 2020

I'm just operating under the assumption that Trump will be reelected and ignoring everything that happens a week from now and on Wednesday I will either wake up pleasantly surprised or preemptively resigned to life in hell.

Vegas odds (which have favored Biden since June 3rd) have gone even as of this morning.

Would recommend keeping eye on the Turnout as Percent of Total 2016 Turnout option on the main Elections Project map, BTW:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Unlike the basic raw numbers site, which is certainly useful but is just that -- it makes it seem like there's only three states with really heavy voting -- you get a better sense of how some states are really off to the races all over the place. Texas and Hawaii, for instance, are essentially tied in those percentage terms at 86% plus (Hawaii apparently had a notable switch to balloting by mail and it's clearly a success). It also explains a bit more clearly why Biden is tending to Pennsylvania, not merely due to relative ease of access from Delaware and home connections -- unlike, say, Wisconsin, which is on the verge of hitting 50%, PA is only at almost 28%, so there's more votes to hit up and try and bank in advance, as well as more room for persuasion either way.

I take that back, Trump is actually favored (-105) now.

Vegas odds (which have favored Biden since June 3rd) have gone even as of this morning.

Well, speaking of said state:

Joe Biden leads in Nevada, according to the final Times/Siena survey of the state.
Biden 49, Trump 43https://t.co/tazhwMwSM1

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 27, 2020

Certainly neither side is treating it as set, given upcoming visits.

Further noted re Times/Siena survey:

Well this is our first post-debate poll, so you'll have to wait and see. Our prior NV polls were
Post-RNC: 46-42
Post-debate 1: 48-42https://t.co/nO65X71Oge

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 27, 2020

So emphasizing the supposition that the final debate essentially did nothing numbers-wise.

I take that back, Trump is actually favored (-105) now.

where are you seeing that?

Remember that Vegas lines are not set and do not change based on what they think will happen, they are to balance the money coming in on both sides. Ideally they want equal betting on both sides, then they make money on the vig on the losing bets.

lol y'all look at that shit?

Can't find a source for those odds. Are you misinterpreting the graph on oddsshark (which cuts off on september 1)?

Meantime

New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here).

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 27, 2020

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Where does this notion come from that betting odds operate on some sort of secret knowledge unavailable to normies

lol probably from personal experiences of losing all bets by 1pt

Can't find a source for those odds. Are you misinterpreting the graph on oddsshark (which cuts off on september 1)?

― Dan I., Tuesday, October 27, 2020 11:16 AM (five minutes ago)

exactly, it was a hyperbolic tweet with that graph with the dates conveniently snipped off.

now back to your regularly scheduled programming...

Unlike e.g. 538 model, betting markets can price in the (perceived) probability that the election will be stolen.

it's not a secret

http://www.betsmart.co/how-do-oddsmakers-set-lines/

To guarantee a profit, bookmakers need to ensure that the picks coming in for each team in each matchup are as close to 50/50 as possible (if you are unsure why, read up on What are Sportsbook Margins?). But what happens if something suddenly changes? A star player gets injured in training or a big trade happens? What if the bookmaker misread where people were going to put money and set the opening prices incorrectly?

Money will start coming in more on one side than the other and the oddsmaker becomes “exposed”. There is the potential for the oddsmaker to have to payout more than they took on the event if the side with the most action wins!

To help avert disaster scenarios like this, oddsmakers are constantly monitoring the picks that are coming in to ensure that they are as close to 50/50 as possible in order to preserve their profit margin.

And if there are a bunch of folks out there with secret knowledge (republican legislators who know exactly what they're plotting behind close doors), that might appear in the markets xpost

that doesn't mean they can be indicative of who is going to win (the better/more probable victor is usually favored) but if they lines move - that doesn't indicate necessarily that they have changed their opinion on who's going to win, it may be the money is coming in lopsided

right but money could be coming in lopsided for a good reason

sure, i'm just saying there's a tendency for people to read changes in vegas odds like changes in polling data and it's not the same thing

The Lincoln Project to build out its media business after the electionhttps://t.co/7eu5ITGPdP

— Jack Brewster (@jbruce218) October 27, 2020

It’s about time for Bill Maher to go away forever, maybe they can take his spot on HBO.

we need a john wilkes booth project immediately https://t.co/Y3Sxcv60T3

— Brandy Jensen (@BrandyLJensen) October 27, 2020

my sportsbook is now at Biden -190 and Trump +145, which is quite a terrible spread (they're pretty bad with any non-sports bets), but still, that's about as good for Biden as it's ever been. I got a max bet in when Biden was at -115 a few weeks ago (pre-debate, I think)

as ums mentioned the numbers don't mean much but where they expect most of the action to fall. as far as I can tell, a lot of gamblers are pro-Trump, or expect him to win. doesn't mean much, these guys are notoriously shit when it comes to prognosticating politics. I would imagine a lot of it is just FOMO from not grabbing Trump post-grab 'em by the pussy when his odds were at like +700 or whatever

I take that back, Trump is actually favored (-105) now.

― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, October 27, 2020 1:29 PM bookmarkflaglink

the betting markets like Betfair etc though have Biden 64-36 currently

which considering the info ums et al posted above, pretty damn good odds

And if there are a bunch of folks out there with secret knowledge (republican legislators who know exactly what they're plotting behind close doors), that might appear in the markets xpost

― Dan I., Tuesday, October 27, 2020 2:25 PM bookmarkflaglink

that's a reach. if that were the case, it'd be easy as hell to win bets by just following the pumps and dumps

Biden in GA?

most books offer bad odds and have a low max for that reason. I wanted to put my whole account on Biden but it only let me bet $100. anytime a sportsbook offers a non-sports bet it's purely for fun and to draw people in

In the UK, William Hill is offering 50-1 odds on a 45 win.

Channel Four news on US redneck safari as I write.

TOTAL CONFIDENCE. The Trump brand is so strong, he doesn't need to advertise! MAGA MAGA MAGA! *has aneurysm, shits self, dies*

Trump Pulls Florida Ads as Cash-Poor Campaign Enters Final Week

President Donald Trump’s campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016.

Since the beginning of the fall campaign on Labor Day, Trump has cut $24 million from his national ad budget, while former Vice President Joe Biden has added $197 million. Biden has outspent Trump three-to-one over that time.

Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he’s down in all those states but Ohio, where it’s effectively even.

The president still has $350,275 budgeted to spend on ads in Florida through Election Day, but has canceled $5.5 million in the final two weeks of the campaign, according to data compiled from ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics.

The Trump campaign says its organizational strength in Florida will carry it into Trump’s column on Election Night as Republicans get more in-person voters to the polls.

Speaking of MAGA, was it something someone posted here or somewhere else that pointed out how important chants and mantras are to cult members? Drain the swamp, lock her up, etc.

There's a practical take on that which I read saying that given the difference in early voting levels it would make more sense to concentrate on said states vs. Florida and its expense. But even so.

Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania

Spending in Michigan and Minnesota and not Wisconsin seems too dumb even for the Trump campaign. But whatever, maybe they know something I don't know.

We call that Pulling a Hillary '16.

Minnesota is an "industrial" state, huh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ViEzjcc6sE

BREAKING: NBC moves historically-red Texas to "tossup" in presidential race. #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/1dMFc7srvV

— Antonio Arellano (@AntonioArellano) October 27, 2020

A recent Politico article reported that Trump has been "fixated on Minnesota" since 2016. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/14/minnesota-swing-states-425366

just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania

That list of states has Trump's tiny fingerprints smeared all over it. He has a hard time learning new facts, but he still remembers his electoral college map from 2016 and he figures if they did it for him once, they can do it again. He figures DeSantos will deliver FL for him.

I obtained a copy of the "health care plan" that Kayleigh McEnany handed to Lesley Stahl in that massive binder. It was a large print list of bullet pointed highlights and slogans that was 10 pages long (including back and front covers). https://t.co/90P0xNlDx3

— Hunter Walker (@hunterw) October 27, 2020

wonder if the Minnesota fixation has to do with his attacks on Ilhan Omar drawing such a rowdy response

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/10/27/louis-dejoys-october-surprise/

I hope if Biden wins, trash like Dejoy are prosecuted for the things they have done