"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

"Nice trucks. You think I could hop into one of them and drive it away? I'd love to do it. Just drive the hell out of here. Just get the hell out of this. I had such a good life." -- Trump pic.twitter.com/0sZC13WH9O

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 26, 2020

Yes, they may be grifters looking for mudslinging clients in 2024, but this is a terrific ad:

In 8 days, we’ll make sure this story has a happy ending. pic.twitter.com/XAA3sLzqbo

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) October 26, 2020

i hate it but it's not for me

that ad will do great with the 10 and under voting bloc

half-expecting him to declare "National COVID-19 Day" where he just asks everybody to make out with infected people

"A 24-hour lifting of restrictions on gatherings and celebrations, a break in the war on Covid, just like the pause in the First World War on the Western Front in 1914."https://t.co/57MiYsCji9

— The Scotsman (@TheScotsman) October 25, 2020

my stance on the lincoln project however is that you do not, under any circumstances, gotta hand it to them xxp

i can't believe these words came out of jared kushner's mouth, wow!!

The backlash was swift against Jared Kushner Monday shortly after he suggested on that Black people must “want to be successful” so that his father-in-law’s policies can help them.

After telling “Fox and Friends” that he had an “in-depth and respectful policy discussion” with rapper Ice Cube — who told the network the day before that he had spoken with Trump administration officials recently to collaborate on its Platinum Plan that aims to invest $500 million into Black communities — Kushner launched into a tone-deaf lecture.

“Again, one thing that we have seen in a lot of the Black community, which is mostly Democrat, is that President Trump’s policies are the policies that can help people break out of the problems that they’re complaining about,” Kushner said. “But he can’t want them to be successful more than that they want to be successful.”

Are U. of Wisconsin/YouGov reputable snake oil salesman?

Wisconsin -- Biden +9
Michigan -- Biden +10
Pennsylvania -- Biden +8

That would be the election right there.

― clemenza, Monday, October 26, 2020 10:29 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

yougov is not snake oil, but they're a British pollster and they don't have a great record in the US.

xpost to clemenza -- yep, I'm playing with the map and basically not seeing any way for Biden to lose if he takes those 3.

― Lavator Shemmelpennick, Monday, October 26, 2020 10:45 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

here's one: everything goes like it did in 2016, except those states, which take weeks to call their results, during which time the courts intervene.

i can believe it. he was the one who thought it might be politically advantageous to let the virus run rampant in the "blue states."

xp

i realized this is fucked up but sometimes i'm kind of grateful these people are so terrible at what they do bcz it makes me feel less terrible at what i do in comparison

he screwed up blending his foundation again in that trucks clip

this is what i'm talking about when i say you'll know they're serious about texas if they send the candidates or surrogates to el paso and the RGV

Donald Trump still leads in Texas, according to the final Times/Siena poll of the state, as strength among nonwhite voters does just enough to overcome all out rebellion in the suburbs
Trump 47, Biden 43https://t.co/LP92cGZCgK

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 26, 2020

In the survey, white college grads in these competitive districts have swung (per their own self-report) from Trump+24 in '16 to Trump+2.
But nonwhite voters statewide have swung toward Trump, modestly but significantly given they represent nearly half of voters

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 26, 2020

it's probably going to be impossible to campaign in el paso before the election though because https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/10/26/el-paso-texas-curfew-installed-covid-19-patients-flood-hospitals/6040309002/.

Wasserman's add-on to that:

The story in TX is pretty consistent: Trump has plummeted since '16 in white-collar suburbs, w/ potentially catastrophic implications for GOP control of congressional seats & the state house.

But Trump's modest gains w/ low-income Hispanics (RGV, etc.) may save him statewide. https://t.co/fBg9Y5FzPv

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 26, 2020

That truck thing is up there with the funniest things he has ever said.

he should just drive a truck up to his rallies and ask people to throw in their wallets and jewelry

"I should probably just take off, right? Take Air Force One to another country. Anybody know which of those we don't have an extradition treaty with? Like one of the non-shithole ones? Asking for a friend."

lol at the real clear politics guy going in

Oh what the hell, I'm not done. What hardcore NeverTrumpers will have to come to grips with after Trump probably loses is that there is no hunger for their brand of politics. 5/

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) October 26, 2020

The "'be the world's policeman'/cut social security/worst-of-all-possible-worlds-by-being socially-conservative-but-not-really-meaning it" coalition just isn't there. As I've said before, it gets the votes of three guys in think tank cubicles, two of whom voted for Johnson. 6/

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) October 26, 2020

if you want a dose of optimism about texas then check this out. NYT/sienna is the best of the bunch, but it seems like they have a systematic problem in texas.

Every final NYT/Siena 2018 poll for Texas, compared to results

Senate: R+8 / R+2
TX-07: R+3 / D+5
TX-23: R+8 / R+0
TX-31: R+15 / R+3
TX-32: D+4 / D+7

And universally they were finding Democrats doing weak with Hispanic voters https://t.co/iLwr49A4Vs

— Opinion Haver (@AsInMarx) October 26, 2020

has anyone done an in-depth look into why biden is doing poorly among hispanics?

i think the evidence for the premise (never mind understanding of the cause) is mixed, and i doubt we'll have much clarity until we have the exit polls.

I don't know exactly what they're doing, but it's not a good sign that I always know what a Trafalgar Group poll is going to say without having to open the link.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 25, 2020

the whole thread is a good takedown

Maybe when Trump said Mexico would build is wall, he meant Mexicans in Texas.

An American Mexican in Texas

i have always taken the (extremely uninformed) presumption that the conservative leaning of 1st/2nd gen texan mexican-american voters is proof of the universal ethos of "fuck you i got mine" and would love to be disabused of that notion by someone from that community.

I'm really fascinated by people of Mexican and Central American ancestry voting for conservatives. I've always thought it had something to do with religiosity?

i have always taken the (extremely uninformed) presumption that the conservative leaning of 1st/2nd gen texan mexican-american voters is proof of the universal ethos of "fuck you i got mine" and would love to be disabused of that notion by someone from that community.

― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, October 26, 2020 1:46 PM

and many Cubans.

I remember in 2008 in CA, there were definitely Mexican families in my neighborhood who had Yes on 8 signs (aka they were against gay marriage) and Obama signs up in their windows, but of course, yard signs are a shit measure, duh

presumed religion-motivated voting is the argument for sending catholic biden (not harris or obama or whatever) to texas this week.

Yeah, I was thinking as much.

I asked my wife (who is Mexican) about this the other day and she says that Trump's tough guy persona plays pretty well among young Hispanic men

seems like he just really likes pennsylvania though

.@mikememoli crunched the numbers on Biden’s campaign travels since the convention pic.twitter.com/Lv5EFX7I8m

— MSNBC Live with Hallie Jackson (@HallieOnMSNBC) October 26, 2020

"fuck you i got mine"

This right here explains pretty much everything about the conservatives in my family.

Getting votes in western PA is very important to winning PA tbh. He's got Philly on lock, but everything around Pgh to the state border is fair game.

so best not to mention that during a job interview i guess, because holy shit, it would be hard to avoid pulling out an airhorn and blasting it

PA is also like 20 minutes away from his basement him so the opportunity cost of sitting on an airplane for eight hours is lower than texas. that map makes sense to me. xp

and many Cubans.

― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, October 26, 2020 1:54 PM bookmarkflaglink

otm. one of our old family friends is Cuban and voting for Trump.

she also wouldn't let her children be friends/date Puerto Ricans growing up

Also if they were conservative in Mexico before emigrating, they're not going to magically vote Democratic when they get here. A lot of Mexican-Americans come from Guanajuato which is a majority-PAN state; that party maps onto the Republican party in terms of beliefs.

i think this is a bigger gender gap than among white voters

sorry--wrong hispanic race variable there, but still similar
70-24 among women; 43-44 among men

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 26, 2020

Fuck you got mine doesn’t explain relative strength in the RGV, which is... not rich.

Latinx voters are younger and poorer than average IIRC. Dem centrism doesn’t exactly make people of that profile swoon.

I haven’t spent much time in western PA but the little I did reminded me a hell of a lot of West Virginia

First PA poll to have Trump in the lead since May, and it's not Trafalgar or Rasmussen, in case you've been counting unhatched chickens or just need something to worry about: https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf

I asked my wife (who is Mexican) about this the other day and she says that Trump's tough guy persona plays pretty well among young Hispanic men

― frogbs, Monday, October 26, 2020 5:58 PM (twenty-two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'm not hispanic and have no special insight but the machismo / misogyny angle always seemed like the most plausible reason to me

xpost Well, I mean, West Virginia is right there! Even a state like Illinois, reliably blue, almost definitively Midwestern, me personally I'm just a four and a half hour drive from Kentucky - the distance from Philly to Pittsburgh - and I'm all the way up north. Missouri is another one that's sort of half Midwestern, half southern. Or Ohio.

Trump's *tough guy persona* plays pretty well among young Hispanic men

i like to think i can set aside personal biases enough to comprehend opinions that fall pretty far outside of my own worldview, even some i might find personally abhorrent. but Trump being a "tough guy" simply is not one of them.

xxxp that poll is from the Center for American Greatness, the leading voice of the next generation of American Conservatism.

Yeah I was about to say, automatic roffle at the source.

i have always taken the (extremely uninformed) presumption that the conservative leaning of 1st/2nd gen texan mexican-american voters is proof of the universal ethos of "fuck you i got mine" and would love to be disabused of that notion by someone from that community.

― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, October 26, 2020 1:46 PM (thirty-five minutes ago)

in my experience growing up in SoCal a lot of these 2nd generation mexican-americans look down on new immigrants and treat them like shit so Trump is right up their ally in that regard.

Oct. 26: Election day is in 8 days. Here's how polls looked on this day in...

1980: Dem margin +0 (actual = -10)
1984: D -19 (-18)
1988: D -10 (-8)
1992: D +8 (+6)
1996: D +14 (+8)
2000: D -3 (+0)
2004: D -1 (-2)
2008: D +7 (+7)
2012: D +0 (+4)
2016: D +5 (+2)

— On this day in the polls... 🤖 (@todayinpolls) October 26, 2020