"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

many xps:
As an aside on yesterday's wind turbine discussion, painting one blade black reduces bird fatalities by 70%. Rappelling 40-50 m down existing turbine blades with some paint will be a new career option for thrill seekers.

"a guy named trump"

5 pence aides have coronavirus, including his chief of staff.

seems important, but he's going ahead with his campaign events tomorrow. he is the head of the covid-19 task force, after all

i feel like i have time traveled back to the dark ages and the warlord keeps telling me let the leeches suck my pupils or the sun god won't come back

In America, dark ages time travel to you!

"The Trump/Pence Promise: We bring the plague to YOU!"

Question for all you stat/poll/politics nerds: how/why is it that we have all these polls, with all these results, and yet the campaigns always have their fabled "internal" polls with their own secret numbers that they hold close to their vests? How would a campaign poll differently, and why would it get them significantly different numbers than all of the public polls? For example, I've seen people suggest that Biden should make another appearance or two in Texas, because the numbers there look more promising than they should, and then I've seen people countering with the notion that maybe the Biden's campaign's own polling makes it seem more of a longshot (which I swear to god autocorrect tried to change to "longshoremen"). Why would the campaign's polling come to a decisively different conclusion?

Baseball teams always say the same thing, that they have their "own metrics" that are much better than what the analysts put out there. Which is supposedly true, and corroborated by one of the posters on ILB who knows someone who works for one of the teams. I wonder about politics, though. If you were this genius pollster, couldn't you make more money--maybe even a lot more--working for one of the networks? With baseball, the money would be working anonymously for one of the teams.

It happened: Hays Co., TX just became the first county in America - to my knowledge - to surpass its total 2016 turnout.

Four years ago, it cast 72,164 total votes. With more than a week left, 73,277 people there have already early voted.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 25, 2020

Hi @NateSilver538. Colorado Secretary of State here. We have in-person early voting and Election Day in-person voting. In fact, we have over 340 voting centers across the state!

— Jena Griswold (@JenaGriswold) October 25, 2020

(xpost) I'm guessing you saw that poll today (Dallas Morning News) that has Biden up by 3 in Texas?

Yeah. I just don't get why there can be all these polls from professional sources that say one thing, but not only may the internal campaign polls says something else, the campaigns give them more weight than all the other polls. PA is another one. The Biden campaign sent out a surrogate a week or so ago to say that things were much closer than people were saying. Now, it's possible that's just sort of psyops, to get people to vote. But if they *do* have significantly different numbers, how did they get there, and why are they different from what others see? Do their polls take into account data not publicly available?

Hays County is outside Austin, right? Been a really fast growing region for a while now.

Early vote count now 58.6 million. Plus:

Texas is just shy of 80% of their total 2016 turnout. If the past is a guide, there will be a minor update later today that pushes them over

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) October 25, 2020

PA is another one. The Biden campaign sent out a surrogate a week or so ago to say that things were much closer than people were saying.

I'd say that's just them making sure complacency doesn't set in. I don't know if I've seen a Pennsylvania poll in months that doesn't have Biden up by 6-9/

Agreed. And yet, why are those public numbers trusted/trustworthy, but not Texas (which shows Biden has at least a shot)?

We might see an election in which pollsters understate the extent of Biden's possible victory, as most pundits did in 2012.

For example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZWvByn8HaU

FWIW, this is Biden internal polling from 9 days ago (from a "grassroots strategy summit" with Jen O'Malley Dillon):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkjVYdEX0AEOMjf?format=jpg&name=large

CNN has a thing up this morning comparing it to 1980, where it was close through October, then it wasn't, at all

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections#1980_United_States_presidential_election

Lots of differences, obviously--I imagine polling was less reliable--but it was like, fairly or not, voters said "Enough" right at the last minute. (Plus "There you go again" making Reagan less scary.)

I'm getting emails from Dem groups citing the Trafalgar poll article on The Hill

I get trying to GOTV but I don't get purposefully giving credence to a Republican polling firm and suggesting that Biden's chances are actually bad is a good way to do it.

All my emails from national democratic campaign groups have been nothing but shrill panic-stricken ALL CAPS freakouts for at least a week now

Expecting one where someone films themselves jumping bout a window

It must be effective to some extent, but I really don't get the point of formulating emails to look like obnoxious unwanted spam. I suppose if the thought is that it doesn't cost a lot to do, if anything, might as well spam it up and pick off any low hanging fruit rather than waste any time and money formulating something more specific or subtle.

maybe it works on older generations who routinely engage in apoplectic behavior online (I know we're used to this from MAGA types but I see old Biden supporters doing this too), but otoh I also see the same tactic targeted at younger voters ("we are CRYING right now...")

Remember in 2012 "Ham" Rove and co. were predicting all sorts of things even up on election night trying to keep the narrative going they were going to win and win big.

There is definitely some big delusions with some Trump supporters on their chances like there was with Clinton in the last election. Around here especially at work, I don't talk politics for jack, but you don't have to ask for an opinion from some of these people and plenty of Trumpkins are in denial of circumstances.

I don't see how anyone could win re-election after pretty much constantly flipping the bird to half the country for four years on anything and everything. GOP money cult and that core of crazy that has been media indoctrinated for three decades will ride or die with whatever lunatic is piloting the ship. Sad truth is I really don't think Trump would be losing all other idiocy included if the pandemic had not happened. They would have been able to ride the riots to victory.

I'm sure even if Biden wins the story will be all these people dying off because of this "red wave" of infections happening now will be pinned on him the same damn way the smoking crater of an economy that Obama received was his fault in 2008. And the money cult only has to find 15-20 of the voting electorate to go along with their harebrained BS to re-take power.

Remember in 2012 "Ham" Rove and co. were predicting all sorts of things even up on election night trying to keep the narrative going they were going to win and win big.

lol I rescreened Karl on FOX the other day

Such leadership

Mark Meadows on CNN: “We are not going to get control of the pandemic.”

Says we will instead try to get therapeutics and vaccines rather than trying to control the spread.

— Toluse Olorunnipa (@ToluseO) October 25, 2020

What in the

The Trump administration offered Santa Claus performers a deal: promote a Covid-19 vaccine, and they'd get early access to it. The plan has been called off. https://t.co/Cg7XRbUsZu

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 25, 2020

I'm sure even if Biden wins the story will be all these people dying off because of this "red wave" of infections happening now will be pinned on him the same damn way the smoking crater of an economy that Obama received was his fault in 2008.

Honestly this is the best-case scenario, because then people on the right would take virus seriously. I'm more concerned that here in the red states a Biden win — and the let's-hope-more-coherent federal focus on COVID that would accompany it — will just harden people's resistance to any and all public health mandates.

Like, people will be burning their "Biden face diapers" in the streets, that kind of thing.

I don't see the red states/people being curtailed/corralled at all, not even a little bit. Certainly there will be no enforceable mask mandate, because how in the world would a Biden administration enforce it? In some ways that's a relief, since progress toward a vaccine will be made no matter who is governing, but Biden will (most likely) get the actual win without while avoiding, say, sending troops into the streets to make people mask-up. Now, getting people to *take* the vaccine, that's another matter, but all the schools have to do is mandate them to get the ball rolling there.

Btw, speaking of Santa, the coup de grace is Trump losing and then being responsible for taking Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's Eve down with him due to his incompetence.

I have been waiting for some of militia nuts to basically go create some violence to try to bring back the "riots". If those clowns that were planning what they did would have instead done some type of actions to try to raise up racial animus and succeeded in getting the riots going now like they were this summer, I think Trump/GOPs 'us or them' would have been more effective. Luckily as in the 90s, these guys are a bunch of damn idiots.

Fox News makes more money when the Democrats are in power and those camo LARPers getting further into legit politics is probably the next step.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/22/926279072/militia-leader-known-as-the-bundy-ranch-sniper-seeks-a-new-title-senator

. Erwin said on the call: “Since you would be doing Santa a serious favor, Santa would definitely reciprocate.”

Mr. Caputo said: “I’m in, Santa, if you’re in.”

So if he loses, what's Trump going to do for the last few weeks of his term? He could (and will) surely do more rallies, or foment racial conflict, or basically just ... keep it up, but he would be doing so with not only no gain or benefit, but the sword of Damocles that is imminent investigation/prosecution hanging over his head. He can't even resign and have Pence pardon him (per some creative conspiracies), because you can't be pardoned for something you haven't been convicted of yet.

So if he loses, what's Trump going to do for the last few weeks of his term? He could (and will) surely do more rallies, or foment racial conflict, or basically just ... keep it up, but he would be doing so with not only no gain or benefit, but the sword of Damocles that is imminent investigation/prosecution hanging over his head. He can't even resign and have Pence pardon him (per some creative conspiracies), because you can't be pardoned for something you haven't been convicted of yet.

Part of me thinks he's just going to disappear, that the country will be effectively without a president from November until January (and he might not even show up for Biden's inauguration). Another part thinks he'll go on a looting-and-burning spree out of a combination of greed and spite. Sell off every national park to energy companies, fire everyone who pissed him off and shut down their agencies, etc., etc. It's really hard to say, because he's clearly insane. I guess we have to pray for the right combination of laziness and depression, rather than nihilism and rage.

do you guys follow The Frankenstein Project? it's a group of doctors who produce videos making fun of the monster they created

— blaaaaaaaaaines (@blainecapatch) October 16, 2020

I'd put big money on him not going to a Biden inauguration. Live tweeting a bunch of seditious bullshit during the inaugural speech.

I totally see him skipping the inauguration, and in fact possibly hosting his own alternative in protest. I think there is probably still time to book Three Doors Down again.

If he has nothing to gain and has already lost, then his underlings and supporters in government, from the Senate down, really have nothing to fear, and if he went full burn it down nihilist they might intervene. Of course, there is the question of *how* they respond to his bullying when he *is* out of office. Will they still fear his wrath and bend to his will as an ex president? It's not like they have anything else to offer.

Internal polls are useful for campaigns because they’re more likely to be district level, which gives you more useful information for campaigning. But yeah there’s some “not invented here” syndrome in the way campaigns ignore high quality external polling.

Internal polls aren’t untrustworthy per se. They’re not even necessarily biased. The problem is that *the ones we find out about* are biased, because campaigns have an incentive to leak particular results. External pollsters release every poll they do.

Which in part has been Harry Enten's point -- the GOP is barely leaking anything, and what they are leaking isn't much good for them to start with.

3DD, the “Beach Boys”, Kid Rock


I expect a fair amount of people including some newly minted congress folk (Marjorie Taylor Greene, etc) to be all STILL MUH PRESBNIDENT

Regardless if he wins or loses I expect him to immediately start campaigning for 2024. He doesn't want the job but he's got to keep the grift going to pay his lawyers and stave off debt repayment.

honestly can’t blame him. that’s a ton of $$$ to leave on the table

Hays County is outside Austin, right?

Yep, it's got Wimberley, Dripping Springs, Buda, and Kyle. As Austin housing has become rapidly unaffordable, development in these exurbs to the southwest of Austin has ramped up. In 2016 Hayes County went for Trump by less than 1%... it was basically 50/50. The population has doubled since then, and the new residents are mostly Austin commuters... my bet is that in 2020 they go for Biden by about 15 points.

🚨October 24/Texas Counties breakdown🚨

Harris County-

As of yesterday, a total of 1,063,627 have voted with 6 days of Early Voting left.

In 2016, a total of 1,313,000 people voted in the entire General Election.

Currently at 81% of it's 2016 total.

— ET Breaking News (@breaking_et) October 25, 2020

"We're rounding the turn," the president says in New Hampshire of a virus that has caused an outbreak in the vice president's office.

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 25, 2020

I'd put big money on him not going to a Biden inauguration. Live tweeting a bunch of seditious bullshit during the inaugural speech.

I think he will attend, he’ll sit politely and watch, and that will be the day he finally becomes president, a few minutes before he isn’t

I'm not sure anyone can predict the actual impact of a loss on Trump's psyche. This is a guy who has avoided accountability and responsibility for everything his entire life. He has powerful psychic systems of denial and deflection in place, such that it's a possible an incontestable loss will either not register at all or will completely fry the system. Anything from retaliatory nuclear strikes on Manhattan and San Francisco to zombie-like paralysis seems equally likely.

It'd be funny if Biden said Trump wasn't allowed to come