"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Texas is very restrictive on who can vote absentee, the one box/county move was more for show than anything - you have to be 65+ or out of the area for the entirety of early voting and Election Day, the signature match on registration vs ballot is supposed to be pretty hardcore.

I can well believe that, among the voters who thought Trump was a great nominee in 2016, he has delivered them to a fever pitch of incitement excitement.

if you vote with an erection the vote still only counts once, maybe zero if the pages are stuck together

They might feel a sudden need to "tuck in their shirts," ifyoukniwwhatimean

Just cast my early vote in the outskirts of Philadelphia County, PA. It was...kind of jarring.

If you have option of *early voting*, do it!! If my experience was at all representative, Nov 3rd may be insane.

Short 🧵 1/5

— Alex Imas (@alexoimas) October 24, 2020

Just a reminder to report any poll interference to 866-OUR-VOTE. 866ourvote.com

Sorry, LIES. 866ourvote.org

I'm just gonna call 976-EVIL.

I attended my first Cubanas Con Biden roadside rally -- in the heart of my deep red part of unincorporated Miami-Dade County. I actually agreed to wear the Baby Trump costume (fresh out of the box) for about twenty minutes. At first the size of the Trump rally on the other side of the park dispirited me; then on our side more and people arrived with flags and signs. I counted 110 people, everyone socially distanced with plenty of space and masked (at the Trump event it looked like more than half the crowd said fuck off to the masks). We got "Commuistas!" yelled at us by the usual stereotypes: every MAGA-ite must own or lease the biggest truck he can find. But the number of honks, thumbs-ups, whoops -- encouraging.

Yeah there were more trucker rallies for Trump around Philly today

Even if the polls (in aggregate) are overestimating Biden by 6.5 percent, he would still win.

― fretless porpentine (Ye Mad Puffin), Saturday, October 24, 2020 12:22 PM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

YMP, I'm playing with the Wash Post widget and I'm getting:

1. Uniform error for Trump of 5.5% = 279 Biden; 259 Trump.
2. Uniform error for Trump of 6% = 259 Biden; 279 Trump.

PA's 20 ev is the difference between the two. Regardless, the larger point is encouraging.

PBKR, sorry, either I read it wrong or the model is updating.

Either way,

every MAGA-ite must own or lease the biggest truck he can find

Not making compensation joke here because that would be sizeist.

Definitely could be updating. As per the article, the trend in the swing states has been slight move for Trump (.25%).

And I will absolutely be watching on election night - I have no willpower and want to see Trump lose too badly to miss it if it happens.

I have champagne if he loses and whiskey if he doesn't.

I have some follow-up questions. https://t.co/XhZoY03hIp pic.twitter.com/GlzfJgZ3bb

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) October 24, 2020

Party unity!

Trump privately told donors it would be ‘very tough’ for GOP to hold Senate, saying: ‘I don't want to help some of them’ https://t.co/3aR8MAZx6D

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 24, 2020

you're welcome to actively hurt them as well

This guy would literally throw ever person in the world out of the lifeboat if he had to, up to and including helping Barron, Ivanka, Melania, etc. into iron vests for good measure.

i'm watching Univision and just saw a Latin-themed Donald Trump ad, where they had him dancing in sync to the syncopated beat while they sang "Vote for Trump" in Spanish.

that was the whole ad.

You didn't cite the best part!

The president — in a sentiment not shared by many of his party’s top officials and strategists — said he instead thinks the Republicans “are going to take back the House.”

i wonder which ones he doesn't want to help, and why -- Susan Collins and Corey Gardner come to mind, but there are probably others.

lol....how much you wanna lay on that Prez

"There are a couple senators I can’t really get involved in. I just can’t do it. You lose your soul if you do."

lol at his concern for his soul

Ned I read that tweet and immediately thought - I'm ready for the road.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FWHavH6IQw

Maybe Trump really is in on the Dobbs Plan: threatening Graham that he will lose Trumper support if Graham doesn't agree to launch a laptopgate investigation, and then pivoting back to embracing Graham if he does launch an investigation?

Amusingly insane, if so.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision

Let the populist dominos fall

lolol at Boris genuinely thinking he led get good and special treatment from a second-term emboldened Trump

Meantime, focused on the issues that matter.

"Big Tech. Section 230, right?" - @realDonaldTrump to a silent crowd in Ohio.

— Max Steele (@maxasteele) October 24, 2020

he says a lot of stuff lately and I don't know what it means

And i say ACK

Getting odd out there:

At some point we'll have to ask for an all-mail ballot state like Colorado, when are Republicans going to vote? Sure, there are some vote centers for in-person early voting, but they're not going to handle a hundred thousand Republicans on Election Day pic.twitter.com/JzykXUd7Fs

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) October 25, 2020

In past elections, at this time in Colorado, registered Republicans would be leading returned ballots, and I'd be cautioning how Democrats will make up ground the last weekend, esp. as young voters surge with same-day registration at vote centers. I still expect that youth surge

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) October 25, 2020

Also this is getting amusing:

The Lincoln Project’s legal response to the frivolous threat of a lawsuit from Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump’s lawyer.

This will not be the last they hear from us. pic.twitter.com/GNnFsnsCer

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) October 24, 2020

let_them_fight.gif

As cringe as watching the Masters of the Universe movie

there's definitely a "Stalin's soldiers getting closer to Berlin" feel to these Lincoln Project activities. let history be our guide!

Colorado NPAs are doing even worse than the GOP, are they waiting till the last minute to "decide?"

*Another* COVID outbreak in VP Pence's staff. Good thing their boss is on the task force!

Ok credit where due that letter is fucking hliarious

(xpost) Including his chief of staff.

this is getting amusing:

Any lawyer would be tickled pink to be paid to write a letter like that, knowing that, not only can they let out all the stops, but they are earning billable hours while making utter fools of another high-powered law firm.

many xps:
As an aside on yesterday's wind turbine discussion, painting one blade black reduces bird fatalities by 70%. Rappelling 40-50 m down existing turbine blades with some paint will be a new career option for thrill seekers.

"a guy named trump"

5 pence aides have coronavirus, including his chief of staff.

seems important, but he's going ahead with his campaign events tomorrow. he is the head of the covid-19 task force, after all

i feel like i have time traveled back to the dark ages and the warlord keeps telling me let the leeches suck my pupils or the sun god won't come back

In America, dark ages time travel to you!

"The Trump/Pence Promise: We bring the plague to YOU!"

Question for all you stat/poll/politics nerds: how/why is it that we have all these polls, with all these results, and yet the campaigns always have their fabled "internal" polls with their own secret numbers that they hold close to their vests? How would a campaign poll differently, and why would it get them significantly different numbers than all of the public polls? For example, I've seen people suggest that Biden should make another appearance or two in Texas, because the numbers there look more promising than they should, and then I've seen people countering with the notion that maybe the Biden's campaign's own polling makes it seem more of a longshot (which I swear to god autocorrect tried to change to "longshoremen"). Why would the campaign's polling come to a decisively different conclusion?

Baseball teams always say the same thing, that they have their "own metrics" that are much better than what the analysts put out there. Which is supposedly true, and corroborated by one of the posters on ILB who knows someone who works for one of the teams. I wonder about politics, though. If you were this genius pollster, couldn't you make more money--maybe even a lot more--working for one of the networks? With baseball, the money would be working anonymously for one of the teams.

It happened: Hays Co., TX just became the first county in America - to my knowledge - to surpass its total 2016 turnout.

Four years ago, it cast 72,164 total votes. With more than a week left, 73,277 people there have already early voted.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 25, 2020

Hi @NateSilver538. Colorado Secretary of State here. We have in-person early voting and Election Day in-person voting. In fact, we have over 340 voting centers across the state!

— Jena Griswold (@JenaGriswold) October 25, 2020