"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

For all the talk about the strength of Trump's base, I think there are an awful lot of voters who are definitely going to vote for Trump but will still be kind of relieved if he loses — and will not be energized to wage a months-long social media campaign disputing the vote. Of course, there will probably still be enough of the true believers to make it seem like there's an energized angry opposition, but it will be half of Trump voters or fewer.

remember when the narrative in the weeks after 2016 was "wow this just proves Democrats have alienated voters with economic concerns and disappearing industries, they have to find a way to win them back". which isn't false, of course, but now the narrative = "wow a lot of idiots voted for Trump thinking he wouldn't be the person he said he was".

Neanderthal, yep, and would forever kill the "bUt EnThuSiasM" argument

It is not mutually exclusive to believe that Democrats somehow did alienate voters yet Trump is alienating everyone.

I mean...they totally did. but the thing is, that narrative really downplayed a) the number of garbage human beings who voted for him because they wanted him to 'own libs', and b) that these people would run screaming from him in the next election cycle.

I agree that in the event of an unmistakable landslide, Biden will sweep into office easily. The entire strategy of hotly contesting every ballot in every close state falls apart if there are very few close states and a clear electoral college winner.

Trump's main hope is that he can hold the line in enough states with enough EC votes to allow room for doubt in two or three big-to-medium states, where he'll lay down a massive legal and propaganda barrage to keep matters up in the air until the courts can rescue him.

It's up to the voters to deliver that landslide and avoid that potential catastrophe.

it's just like when we said the Republican Party was dead and would never recover in 2016 when Trump became the nominee and then the next 4 years happened.

really too quick to define things, we are

I encourage everyone to NOT stay up watching returns on Election Night. Self-care! Turn away from the Internet, catch a movie, go to bed early.

nah, gonna take Wednesday off and stay up until dawn getting well and truly smashed.

I mean, that could be a blast. Election Night 2016 was so fucking soul destroying that I never want to experience another one, no matter the likely outcome or result. I need my sleep.

To each his own.

anything will be better than 2016, when I was on a business trip in Starkville, MS, alone in a hotel room, wanting to claw my eyes out and having nobody to vent with

Hey, I'm not judging anyone. Do what you feel!

I bought a very expensive bottle of champagne and I'm either going to drink it when they call Texas for Biden or break it against the ground when they call Pennsylvania for Trump and stab myself in the heart with the jagged, fizzy shards.

I plan on Wednesday morning doing what I always do on Wednesday mornings -- my laundry.

any tips for getting out blood stains?

our local art movie theater was showing Idiocracy that night for people who didn't want to subject themselves to the election results. the movie was timed so that by the time it got out, you'd know who won, most likely.

i think they felt comfortable doing it as most patrons of that place lean leftish, as do the owners, as a Hillary victory was pretty much assumed by the time they scheduled it. Many of the patrons were people who probably voted Hillary but did so while holding their nose, or just didn't want to watch the molasses-speed election results.

I keep imagining how they reacted when they left the theatre and found out what happened.

my laundry

^ sanity in action

On Election Night 2016, my local volunteer run little theater showed "American Honey". Not sure when it started but it let out around like 7:30 PM EST.

I entered the theater from one America and exited into a different America.

Unfortunately Idiocracy is, like, 70 minutes long. The should show it on a loop.

Then stayed up all night freaking out and commiserating with friends and family.

everybody is banned from looking at that NYT live probability tracker tool thingy this year

My strategy for sanity. Assume Trump wins outright on Election night. 2nd most likely scenario, too close to call and Trump steals election in court. Other possibility includes Biden winning. Least likely outcome, so I’m not considering it as a real option. This way I won’t be disappointed. Always expect the worse outcome. The “rules” no longer apply.

oh hey you're back

might do an online movie marathon group stream

btw if the landslide is so big that Trump actually is losing ON election night, he will totally pivot and say "but there's lots of mail ballots out there, valid ones!"

i am just going to pick up my guitar and play "I Cum Blood" over and over again for 4 hours

My friend is placing a large bet on Trump to win as what he calls an "emotional hedge" which he claims is a thing in sports betting.

Meantime

The president, in NC, has distracted himself from talking about how unfair the polling is and his false claim public polling is designed to talk about pretend stories of people going to the movies on election night, then something about Hillary Clinton and T-shirts.

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 24, 2020

Earlier, he said pollsters are trying to "depress you" so people don't vote.

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 24, 2020

i'm so sick of these damn pollsters trying to depress me

My friend is placing a large bet on Trump to win as what he calls an "emotional hedge" which he claims is a thing in sports betting.

― thousand-yard spiral stairs (f. hazel), Saturday, October 24, 2020 1:57 PM bookmarkflaglink

lol it totally is. "if I lose the bet, the best result happens and I am happy to be out the money. if I win the bet, we are truly and utterly fucked, but at least I have more money to deal with my misery".

i've done those often.

I can only imagine how bonkers his rallies will get in the home stretch.

Looks like Maggie knows her present gig is about to close its doors and she isn't concerned any more about maintaining her insider access at the WH. Jeez, I'd bet that of all the people who work in close proximity to Trump about 90% of them can hardly wait to throw a shovelful of dirt on his coffin and walk away.

Neanderthal

he will totally pivot and say "but there's lots of mail ballots out there, valid ones!"

Of course.

The other thing he will do is go immediately into lawfare in e.g., Pennsylvania, saying "wait no we need to challenge all of those because most them were cats and dead people and dead cats and dead people's cats!"

But as usual I'm with Raymond Cummings.

Results will likely be inconclusive. Go to bed early. Get someone to hide your phone, your tablet, your computer, and the TV remote.

Following minute-by-minute updates is a recipe for madness. "Well, Bob, with 2% of precincts reporting, Candidate A is up by 10 percent in rural Burpleurp County. BUT WAIT, now we're up to 5%, and Candidate B is up by three. Candidate A is going to have to do really well with the lacrosse moms in the suburbs of Derpville to gain back that ground."

"OH WAIT, this just in. Schmeck County is reporting a massive lead for Candidate B! Those voters are known to be more blurpservative, though. Perhaps the backgammon dads and the hazelnut farmers in the surrounding townships will narrow the gap. Susan, back to you."

No. Never again will I watch that shit. I'll mix myself a large melatonin and bourbon, and be blissfully asleep by 9:15.

(nice display name, YMP)

Back and forth, back and forth:

New: The Texas Supreme Court has temporarily reinstated Gov. Abbott's ban on multiple drop sites for mail-in ballots, pending full review of an appeals court ruling that would allow counties to set up these sites — response briefs due Monday pic.twitter.com/dL2e1CmK9Y

— Zoe Tillman (@ZoeTillman) October 24, 2020

(This is all a little unusual simply because Texas numbers are as noted massive already. Arguably they're trying to stem a tide but is that even feasible at this point?)

Yeah, I can't put myself through what I put myself through four years ago. Almost done constructing the Farraday cage around our apartment and I've been working out my jaw so I'm ready to chew through the cable line when the time comes.

The Texas GOP is fighting desperately to retain control of the Texas House... it's a redistricting year, and if the Dems can flip 9 TX House seats the GOP won't be able to gerrymander the shit out of the state. Which would cost them about half a dozen seats in the US House.

anything will be better than 2016, when I was on a business trip in Starkville, MS, alone in a hotel room, wanting to claw my eyes out and having nobody to vent with

Governor Abbott would probably prefer a Democratic President, since he can noisily rail against the intrusive feds again (just watch him refuse any federal COVID aid if it comes from Biden or Democratic legislation). His favorite target during the Trump years has been Austin, and punching down at them isn't nearly as effective as punching up at Biden will be.

I plan on Wednesday morning doing what I always do on Wednesday mornings -- my laundry.

I have a doctor's appointment at 8:30 the morning of November 4. TBD whether I'll be pestering him for a powerful opioid prescription or not.

(Got my flu shot today, for those of you who find human health as interesting as cats.)

It's important to protect your cats against delayed feeding resulting from human influenza.

I took both Tuesday and Wednesday off. That Day After in 2016 was the one of the worst days I ever had at where I work, a regional business newspaper.

This year, I'll be voting in person since Election Day is also my birthday. I'm calculating that I've got three such days in my lifetime: the first time I voted in 1992, next month, and my 75th birthday in 2048. I guess 2076 could also be on the table, but a 103-year-old man probably shouldn't be voting for next week's breakfast menu, much less the next president.

I plan to spend the evening drinking a bottle of Four Roses while pacing in front of the television all night, pointing dramatically at the numbers and scaring the children.

I’m refusing all meetings on Tuesday in pathetic protest my company’s refusal to make it a holiday

Governor Abbott would probably prefer a Democratic President, since he can noisily rail against the intrusive feds again

Remember Jade Helm?

Good times, good times.

Governor Abbott Mitch McConnell would probably prefer a Democratic President, since he can noisily rail against the intrusive feds again

I ain't foolin' either. McConnell, Cornyn, and the other GOP solons probably want a breather as much as the rest of us. Now they can pivot back to deficit hawk mode.

McConnell looks like he might be dead by the end of the year tbh so I imagine he’s particularly keen to get things over with.

I’m refusing all meetings on Tuesday in pathetic protest my company’s refusal to make it a holiday

Local field organizers for the Biden campaign in Miami Springs get surprise visit from @BarackObama. pic.twitter.com/IQWGdqFKc7

— Bianca Padró Ocasio (@BiancaJoanie) October 24, 2020