"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

another interesting/promising stat:

More than 67,000 early votes have been cast by Minnesotans between the ages 18 and 29, enough to make a difference in a close election. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory over Donald Trump in Minnesota was less than 45,000 votes.

At this point in time in 2016, fewer than 5,000 votes had been cast by young people in the state, according to the CIRCLE data.

Not unrelated:

Texas is currently leading the nation in youth voter turnout.

About half a million Texans under 30 have voted so far, according to new data from Tufts University. | @AshLopezRadio https://t.co/yE4OcIsIUU

— KUT Austin (@KUT) October 23, 2020

AT LAST my ballot is in and will be counted, 22 days after posting.

I delivered my mail-in ballot to a drop box at an early voting site on Saturday but haven't yet received any indication that it's been accepted. I would assume that drop boxes are emptied at night and processed on the next business day, so it makes me a little anxious.

(Maybe I should've just put it in the mail.)

I can't unclench until all is said and done, but if this winds up being as much of a rout as it seems that it might, the dopamine rush on the morning of the 4th is likely to launch me into space.

All logic points to a Biden win, it's just so nerve-racking. Like, Clinton, that wasn't just numbers, that was ... arrogance? Hubris? But this is a better liked candidate vs. an even worse liked by those that liked him and more hated by those that didn't candidate than before, whose margin of victory the first time was small but lucky, following the 2018 election where the Dems did pretty well top to bottom. And yet ... so nerve-wracking.

Anyway, given trends I'd be fine, if they have the time and cash, with Biden putting some final oomph into Texas, if not for the senate and president than for some extra down ballot support. I do know that when my wife and I signed up to write a few hundred postcards to voters, they were all addressed to people in Texas.

xpost I haven't seen anything yet, either, jaymc. Did the same at the first of the week. IL might just be a buncha slowpokes.

OK, that makes me feel better, OL!

I think it takes a week or so, iirc.

I dropped my ballot off Wednesday afternoon (King County, WA) and it's showing rec'd already, with the signature verification step next. If you had a tearoff at the top of your ballot, it might have the URL to check. Mine did.

Not to get too far from politics, but those numbers about cats are accurate, and it's not "good." It's actually Terrible for biodiversity.

if it were *terrible* for biodiversity there would be a measurable difference between cities in the US (where cats are house pets by and large) and the rest of the world (where they are not), with US cities coming out ahead. i might be wrong but i don't think this is the case. admittedly the rats are larger in the US.

again, not saying early voting is bad. it's probably good! but this is why it's complicated ...

Highest TX early voting turnout so far (as share of RVs, counties w/ 100k+ registrants only):

1. Collin (Trump +17 in '16): 48%
2. Williamson (Trump +10): 48%
3. Denton (Trump +20): 47%
4. Comal (Trump +50): 46%
5. Brazoria (Trump +25): 44%

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 23, 2020

Lowest TX early voting turnout so far (as share of RVs, counties w/ 100k+ registrants only):

1. Webb (Clinton +52 in '16): 21%
2. Bell (Trump +15): 27%
3. Cameron (Clinton +33): 29%
4. El Paso (Clinton +43): 30%
5. Hidalgo (Clinton +41): 31%

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 23, 2020

I'm willing to believe experts if they say bird populations are at risk, but holy smokes, there are a ton of grackles here.

Interesting numbers. Williamson County is right near me, and I could easily see it swing toward Biden. I wonder how these compare in terms of pure vote totals vs some of the larger counties.

Can we stop all this chat about how so many cats are eating so many birds because it is cat-shaming my two lazy, slow and clumsy mogs who spend their every living day gazing longingly at birds they'll never be able to catch.

fake mews

I remember the first time I heard that bit of trivia, but I also recall at some point encountering something that totally debunked it. I'll have to see what I saw.

Frank Luntz, a top pollster for Republicans, asserted on Thursday night that if he and his fellow analysts are wrong yet again about who’ll win the election a la 2016, that blunder could spell doom for his industry.

“Right now the biggest issue is a trust deficit,” Luntz told Fox News hosts Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. “And pollsters did not do a good job in 2016.”

“So if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden’s got a five or six point lead and then Donald Trump wins, my profession is done. It’s finished,” he continued. “You can make a mistake once, Bret. You cannot make it again.”

stfu frank

All logic points to a Biden win, it's just so nerve-racking. Like, Clinton, that wasn't just numbers, that was ... arrogance? Hubris?

the major miscalculation in 2016 was "Republicans won't turn out in large numbers for this moron". after he won the nomination that idea should've been thrown out the window and yet Trump was on TV every single minute of every single day, saying the most insane and idiotic shit, day in and day out, it was too stupid to take seriously. that was what 538's big mea culpa was about, yeah it was stupid to say "Trump only has a 2% chance of winning the nomination" when he's actually led every single poll, and the correct way to forecast this race is to remove the Trumpiness out of it. as Nate kept bringing up: It is difficult for one party to win the WH 3 terms in a row. Hillary was the most disliked Dem candidate ever. The GOP has a baked in EC advantage. There were a historic number of undecided voters and you can't really predict how they'll break. More than that: the average American knows jack shit about politics. I'd talk about random Trump shit at the lunch table and no one would have a clue what I was talking about. "Grab 'em by the pussy" and email crimes were the only thing that really stuck.

That's why I think 2020 is gonna be different (**KNOCK ON GIGANTIC PIECE OF WOOD**). Things are fucking terrible right now, to the point where "2020, am I right?" is a meme. and a lot of people are gonna blame the folks in charge. Trump has turned from a breath of fresh air to the most obnoxious man on the planet. Obviously I'm nervous as hell but all signs are that this is gonna be a huge wave election. I think the polls are more likely to be off in Biden's direction than Trump's because I just cannot fucking imagine the undecideds breaking for him again. But who knows!! I've been wrong before!!

that's not all that's finished if Trump wins, Frank. Get one perspective.

https://www.npr.org/sections/13.7/2013/02/03/170851048/do-we-really-know-that-cats-kill-by-the-billions-not-so-fast

xp The US had animals that hunted the same way house cats do--raccoons, for example--so our prey animals could evolve ways to protect themselves. Europe and North Africa had them long enough for prey to evolve, too. The problem is when they are brought into places like Australia where prey have no protection against them.

Meantime I think it's amusing that Trump's pulling all these 'uh see we made peace between Israel and this other country!' moves and literally they've all been one day stories that nobody cares about.

that was what 538's big mea culpa was about, yeah it was stupid to say "Trump only has a 2% chance of winning the nomination"

they gave him a 30% chance in 2016. about the same chances as a really good baseball player has to get a hit when they step to the plate. there's no mea culpa or mistake there, that's just an election model based on probability and simulation

i totally believe outdoor cats kill billions of birds. i feel bad for the birds. but i've never seen any evidence that that's an *ecological* problem. there are a lot of birds.

fine with derailing this thread for the day btw. the election sucks.

i mean, i hate to say it, but 538 gives trump a 12% chance right now, in the 2020 election. if it's 12% on election eve, and he wins, that wouldn't mean that 538's model is "wrong". (though everyone would treat it that way, that's for sure)

Bear in mind those top five Texas counties have a combined population of ~2.2 million. The population of Harris + Travis + Bexar counties (Houston, Austin, and San Antonio) is ~7 million.

KM - I mean before that, when they tried to forecast the massive GOP primary. even though Trump was polling the highest and was the de facto center of literally all the RNC debate coverage there was still this sense of "no way does this last more than a month"

If only Paul the Octopus were still among us.

If Trump doesn't win this one... he'll just file papers for 2024 and begin campaigning immediately.

What's eerie to me about the bird deaths is that I don't think I've ever seen a cat kill a bird. This massive slaughter is happening pretty much invisibly.

They can't do it if you're watching.

I wish when Trump goes off on his Hunter conspiracy theory bullshit, Biden would've said something like "this coming from the guy who was certain Obama wasn't born in the US? Really, we're supposed to believe anything this guy says about democratic candidates?? How long until he once again has to fake apologize and admit he doesn't know what he's talking about? I'm sure he'd just blame me for starting this malarkey. Cmon man".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cat_predation_on_wildlife

Your cat doesn't need to hunt outside. That's more about your projections than the actual needs of a domesticated animal. G

xp frogbs, oops, my mistake! i misread

I should also note that I've owned cats and like them. I just don't think they belong out-of-doors

Anyway, enough derail, sorry for harping on about this

I should also note that I've owned cats and like them. I just don't think they belong out-of-doors

1) you don't own cats, they own you
2) they are pretty firmly convinced they belong outdoors

What's eerie to me about the bird deaths is that I don't think I've ever seen a cat kill a bird. This massive slaughter is happening pretty much invisibly.

― jmm, Friday, October 23, 2020 12:34 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I have multiple birds, and mice, and other varmints brought to me by my cats over the years

...and stevie otm

1) you are correct
2) what they want doesn't matter.

If Trump doesn't win this one... he'll just file papers for 2024 and begin campaigning immediately.

Nah. You're failing to reckon with his incredible emotional fragility and his overwhelming laziness. Once he loses, he won't explode in rage; he'll sink into a black depression. He'll immediately put it out of his mind, though, exactly the way he put it out of his mind every time Pelosi and/or Schumer rolled him over the last four years. The one thing he's absolutely not gonna do is put up a big foot-stomping fight over the "unfair" election, especially not once it becomes clear that the Republican Party's not gonna charge forward with him. I'll be kind of surprised if he even finishes out his term. He might just resign and let Pence run the country for two months, or spend the whole lame duck period on the phone with various Fox News shows. If there was a way to declare bankruptcy and run away, like he's done so many times before, he'd 100% do that. Frankly, I think the only thing keeping him here, rather than jumping on a plane with a gym bag full of cash, will be the fact that, thanks to his fuckups, no other country is currently accepting Americans.

The one thing he's absolutely not gonna do is put up a big foot-stomping fight over the "unfair" election

i'm gonna go ahead and predict the exact opposite of this!

i mean, i hate to say it, but 538 gives trump a 12% chance right now, in the 2020 election. if it's 12% on election eve, and he wins, that wouldn't mean that 538's model is "wrong". (though everyone would treat it that way, that's for sure)

a good portion of that 12% chance is the fact that theoretically something could happen that will shake up this race in the final week. if election day was today he'd probably be at what, 4% or so? I don't even know where that 4% would come from. the polling in every swing state would have to be off by a historic margin.

I wonder if their model takes early voting into consideration - I've seen them say you can't really draw any solid conclusions from that, but if things do significantly tighten, you still have 1/3rd of the votes already cast at a time when Biden was +10 nationally.

for reference, here's one of 538's simulation outcomes that falls in that 12%:

https://i.imgur.com/yBsQERx.png

Trump: “Do you think Sleepy Joe could have made this deal, Bibi, Sleepy Joe?”

Israeli PM Netanyahu: "Uh ... well ... Mr. President, one thing I can tell you is we appreciate the help for peace from anyone in America." pic.twitter.com/LU02tEOXtK

— The Recount (@therecount) October 23, 2020

I wonder if their model takes early voting into consideration - I've seen them say you can't really draw any solid conclusions from that, but if things do significantly tighten, you still have 1/3rd of the votes already cast at a time when Biden was +10 nationally.

― frogbs, Friday, October 23, 2020 12:48 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

the only input is the polls (plus economic fundamentals), but the polls do ask people if they've already voted and weight those respondents as much more likely voters (infinitely likely) compared to someone who hasn't voted yet.

Karl that map is a weird outcome... New Mexico was +8 for Clinton in 2016 and now they're going to vote Trump even though the national polls are basically +8 for Biden?

it's one outcome of their simulation, so yep

i mean, you can do that with any map showing trump winning. the odds are certainly stacked against him

those are potential outcomes, unlikely but within a specific range of error.