"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

I mean nobody knows anything. I see no reason to think it impossible that armies of first-time hardcore Trump voters will show up on Election Day. Plenty of room for increased turnout from 2016 in Trump's demographic base.

Plenty of room for increased turnout from 2016 in Trump's demographic base.

100% disagree

"increased turnout" for Trump would mean "new Trump voters since 2016"

There's alotta shithead kids who couldn't vote in '16 (or '18) that can now.

Trying to imagine someone aged 14-17 who lived through the past four years and actively wanting more of that.

I mean, I know such people exist, but...christ.

imo the legit thing to be worried about would be these assholes either rigging the election or not acknowledging the outcome.

This is a good piece: Trump's presidential campaign is Too Online

At a campaign rally in Des Moines, Iowa, last week, President Trump waxed philosophical on a subject close to the hearts of everyone in the audience: former Associate Deputy Attorney General Bruce Ohr. “Do you hear the news?” Trump said, “Bruce Ohr is finally out of the Department of Justice.”

If you do not recognize the name “Bruce Ohr,” that’s not because you are inadequately informed — he does not really have a claim to fame. Bruce Ohr, who was a former associate deputy attorney general at the Justice Department, is best known for meeting with former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele, author of the “Steele dossier.” (That’s the document that alleged Trump was under the influence of Russian intelligence services, which had supposedly also compiled blackmail material on him.) Ohr’s wife Nellie worked for Fusion GPS, the opposition research firm that employed Steele to write the infamous dossier.

Ohr’s name has come up in conservative media countless times as proof that the investigation into Trump’s ties with Russian assets was tainted from the beginning.

But Iowans are likely more concerned about rising numbers of coronavirus-related hospitalizations and a potential surge in unemployment (an issue Trump’s campaign focused heavily on in 2016). So with a few weeks to go until Election Day, why was the president instead cheering the exit of a former Justice Department official — on whom I wrote an article in 2018 and still had to look up his backstory?

The answer is that Donald Trump and his campaign are poisoned by toxic levels of being Extremely Online.

I can think of maybe two new Trump voters, one in jail for murdering somebody in Wisconsin - he can still vote right? - the other appeared iirc at the Republican national convention. That's two.

In all (or more) seriousness, I worry the Trump administration has, true to character, tipped its hand by casting blame. That Proud Boys email that went to Dem voters? That was allegedly from Iran, and it was done to ... help Biden? And now this:

BREAKING: U.S. administration officials have been watching Russia's FSB penetrate state and local systems in recent weeks and believe they have pieced together Russia's plans for election interference. https://t.co/a3Lo69MmgL It is far worse than Iran. w/ @julianbarnes @SangerNYT

— Nicole Perlroth (@nicoleperlroth) October 22, 2020

Which indicates to me that after the election the administration will finally concede Russian interference but claim that it was done to ... help Biden. And that will be their pretense for contesting results.

imo the legit thing to be worried about would be these assholes either rigging the election or not acknowledging the outcome.

... or the Democrats not taking the Senate, or taking the Senate and the WH but not packing the court (I can't imagine a world where they do pack the court, tbh.) there's a lot to worry about!

I'll say this one more time:

biden is probably going to win, but ...

early votes aren't worth more than late votes. we have no idea what's going to happen on election day.

high turnout is probably good, but the question, given that we know states like florida, pennsylvania, north carolina, texas, etc. are going to be won by a couple of percent, is *exactly how good*.

it is *impossible* to extrapolate with any confidence from what we're seeing right now, which has no precedent to calibrate from, to figuring out who the winner is.

Trump's base is white people without college degrees. That is, in general, a low-turnout population, including in 2016. If they turned out in large numbers this time, that could make a big difference. They probably won't, just like young people probably won't show up in large numbers in any given election. Low-turnout populations mostly low-turnout. But if they do....

xposts In the event that happens, literally everyone who isn't already rabidly in his corner will be all...well, see thread title.

oh shit, they got bobulinski

Trump aides have been telling people that the big surprise in store for tonight's debate is he's bringing Tony Bobulinski, the former Hunter Biden business associate, as a guest tonight.

They're hoping to spring this on Biden, the way he brought Bill Clinton accusers in 2016

— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) October 22, 2020

im calling it right now, the 2020 election will be a referendum on tony bobulinski

...and now it's a surprise how?

surprise, there's a guy who exists named tony bobulinski

There's alotta shithead kids who couldn't vote in '16 (or '18) that can now.

there's also alotta shithead geezers who voted in '16 who are dead now

For weeks it's been Bobulinski this, Bobulinski that. Tonight, the wait is over: Bobulinski.

The real surprise will be when Tony Bobulinski turns out to be this guy:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Co-OfK6WEAA-vY2.jpg

Calling Bobulinski Mr Tony Bobulinski

https://imgflip.com/i/4jhgv6

The skill

On the Trump camp's pre-debate press call, reporters are asking questions about various subjects (where Trump will be on election day, @RichardGrenell's reported meetings with Venezuelan politicians, the debate) and Grenell is refusing any questions not on the Biden emails.

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) October 22, 2020

When @DJJudd asked about the meetings, @RichardGrenell asked if he has covered the Biden emails. Judd responded he covers the Trump campaign.

During a back and forth with @tamarakeithNPR, Grenell told her "don't be homophobic" as she tried to interject. https://t.co/VOUeBBktt2

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) October 22, 2020

Wait 'til Biden spot Bobulinski sitting in the front row, leering at him. Game over!

https://i.imgur.com/Z1KKMfC.jpg

I will say it again (and again, and again): he does not want to face the potential consequences of not winning, but that is not the same as wanting to win. (sweeps hand across panorama of everything Trump has done or said recently) Clearly.

So this thing is tonight, and the strategy is clearly to go all-in on (Hunter) Biden. How long until Trump is muted? How many times will he have to be muted? Will he end up muted the entire time? Will he get muted every time he tries to change the subject back to Hunter Biden? Will Trump storm out in a huff after he gets muted? Will they mute his footsteps? Will they foley in funny sounds, like horse hooves or farts? The betting markets must be going nuts!

There's a big part of me the genuinely thinks he's going to storm out of this one tonight.

from your words to, etc

I think I'm going to preemptively storm out, straight to my beer fridge.

man, this guy

Why it matters that the entire mainstream press is non-reporting the Biden emails (or falsely labeling them disinformation): they’re likely to be charged soon with challenging a Biden administration. If they’re already lying on his behalf, it makes them politicians, not press.

— Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) October 21, 2020

he's the one true boy

(or falsely labeling them disinformation)

I'm not inclined to take matt taibbi's simple word on this without some believable corroboration (not like giuliani's mush-brained dribblings). what did the FBI conclude about these emails, then?

OK I'll bite: is there actually anything all that incriminating in those HB emails? WHat I've read is not at all convincing and comes across as desperate. Not to mention that the sourcing is highly suspect. And the irony of a Trumper alleging nepotistic self-dealing is mind-melting.

Please please put all your eggs in this email basket; it's a winner.

Xxpost nothing that they've made public

Read:

I finally dug a little bit into the "Hunter Biden email" story because I could not figure out what the supposed scandal was. Let's assume the "smoking gun" email is real. The "scandal" is even more ridiculous than it seems, and depends on the endless stupidity of Trumpers....

— Kurt "Mask Up, Vote Early" Eichenwald (@kurteichenwald) October 21, 2020

I had not watched Presidential Roastmaster Barack Obama until just now. This is decent material. As someone who also got their first job at 15 working at Baskin-Robbins (within the year I had moved around the corner to Dunkin' Donuts), I particularly enjoyed that bit:

President Obama: "He's got a secret Chinese bank account. How's that possible ... imagine if I had a secret Chinese bank account when I was running for reelection? You think Fox News might've been a little concerned? They would've called me Beijing Barry." pic.twitter.com/kJvSh0DITr

— Leland #StayHome 🏡 #VoteByMail 🇺🇸 (@daft_editor) October 22, 2020

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/22/bernie-sanders-biden-labor-secretary-431266

Much more interesting interview with former Trump voters in PA on NPR right now, about why they voted for him, why they're not voting for him now, what changed. I wonder if NPR will, or even could, cobble together a piece on people that voted for Clinton but are now voting Trump. I wonder if those people exist. They must, right?

and NPR's the #bothsides org that can do it!

Obama should give this speech every day in a different state until Election Day.

Ye olde "c'mon, man" whistlestop tour

Two prominent Texas Democrats — former congressman Beto O’Rourke and former housing secretary Julián Castro — urged Biden on Thursday afternoon to quickly spend more money in Texas, an emerging battleground state they’re convinced he can win.

Both pointed to Biden’s large cash-on-hand advantage over Trump and recent polls showing a tightening presidential race in Texas, which Trump won by 9 points four years ago. An average of recent polls in the state show the two candidates separated by 3 percentage points, with Biden at 46 percent and Trump at 49. While Biden is advertising in the state and has staff working there, Texas is a far lower priority than states that narrowly decided the 2016 election: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.

“There are big priorities, like making sure that Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are locked down, and I believe that the Biden campaign has done a fantastic job of locking those states down — and they need to — but to have Texas [so close], that’s just too much to ignore,” Castro said during a Thursday afternoon virtual news conference organized by the Texas Democratic Party. “The resources and investment ought to be made in this state because … to win Texas is not just to win an election, it’s to win on the issues that matter to our country, it’s to send a strong message that Donald Trump can’t deny and it will remake the electoral map for generations to the benefit of Democrats everywhere.”

i have to admit, the electoral map does look pretty different when it has giant-ass texas in blue:

https://i.imgur.com/im74rLj.png

(you can hover over the little dots in 538's forecast to see how different the results of the 100 representative simulations)

https://i.imgur.com/xfB2YnL.pngBiden is favored to win the election

Pete has been putting in work tho

Props to Pete Buttigieg for going on Fox News and routinely speaking truth to people who aren’t used to hearing it https://t.co/8iS2lG0pIF

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 22, 2020

I didn't like Pete on the campaign trail after a certain point, but Fox Guest Troll Pete is fun.

Well, he is with his people.

The big pissbaby meltdown over the 60 Minutes questions this morning are giving promise of some satisfying dopamine spikes fro schadenfreude in the first half of the debate tonight.

Trump tonight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9v-33jcEDk4