"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

fuck the dicks who run LP forever and ever, but I do appreciate that sentiment.

one of the few ‘powerful’ social media posts I saw after Trump won was an ex-cousin-in-law eloquently bemoaning how his Trump-voting parents had Raised Him Better Than This and how shook he was by the victory. resonated like hell for me, anyway.

the commercial itself is eh, but it ain’t really made for me

Trump is the best musician, because he’s never played a note — on any instrument!

the commercial itself is eh, but it ain’t really made for me

Trump is the best musician, because he’s never played a note — on any instrument!

Trump is the best musician, because he’s never played a note — on any instrument!

Ugh, sorry for double post ... it wasn’t that good a joke

--Bob Marley

It's the notes he doesn't play

Oh, sorry, that joke was already made, my bad

That would be a good line for Biden tonight, as long as he didn't glitch and say it 3 times.

Whether it’s not seizing power at a time nearly all other executives have, not launching wars in the manner of his predecessors, or not ignoring the campaign promises he made, some of President Donald Trump’s greatest accomplishments are what he hasn’t done.

hate to be pedantic here, but you can't include doing something in a list of things he did not do. framing "doing" something as "not ignoring" does not count. or to put it in mollie hemingway's terms, it does succeed in not counting

Sleepy HD

it's a triple negative! (I think)

That debate is tonight? Gosh. Is he going to toddle out of that one, too?

look, i haven't done single thing here. for example, i have not ignored my impulse to kick you door down and take your stereo

Here are my updated demographic splits in average crosstabs of live-interview national polls, w/ new @QuinnipiacPoll thrown into the October mix.

A few breathtaking splits:
- Biden now +25 w/ women
- Biden now +10 w/ seniors pic.twitter.com/XCbybZJdJu

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 22, 2020

In my view, the biggest "tell" Trafalgar etc. are off the mark? Private, district-level GOP polling conducted to make spending decisions backs up what we're seeing in averages of live-interview polls: Trump doing terribly w/ college whites/women into October.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 22, 2020

Trump doing terribly w/ college

This is possibly where it all went wrong.

I'd like to think that was a telegram sent back in the day.

"Trump doing terribly w/ college. Stop. Suffering from dysentery. Stop. Low on supplies. Stop. Send napkins. Stop."

This seems like a good ad:

I’ve spent my entire career fighting for the middle class and standing up to the abuse of power.

Donald Trump has spent his entire career looking out for himself and abusing his power. pic.twitter.com/Vie5CP9wq7

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 22, 2020

I can't even watch it based on that disingenuous lede.

Sorry Joe, but you held a powerful political position for decades, and were second in command of the most powerful country in earth. You ARE power.

table otm

There’s also the careful omission of the most vulnerable people in “fighting for the middle class”

To be fair, MBNA was in the middle class of enormous banks. We had to protect them from the scourge of individual bankruptcies.

table is right that Joe Biden has held high positions of power, but it is a distortion of the facts to call the vice presidency "the second in command of the most powerful country in earth". A Veep does not have command of anything other than their personal staff, which probably numbers only slightly more than the so-called First Lady's personal staff. Other Cabinet members at least have real departments of the government under their command.

I didn't mean it was a good ad for you all, or for me. Just I imagine possibly effective for the very small handful of people that allegedly remain undecided.

I'm just going to say "busing" and then go on about my day

It's a testament to how much of a horrorshow Trump is that this particular own-goal isn't infuriating me

it is a distortion of the facts to call the vice presidency "the second in command of the most powerful country in earth"

agreed. the title of second in command of the most powerful country on earth clearly belongs to Q

The Winged Serpent.

although I guess you can accurately cast fighting school integration as "fighting for the middle class" now that I've remembered what country I live in

"fighting for the middle class" is indeed a weird expression. why not, "fighting to expand the middle class" if you must use that term.

we shouldn't have a "lower class" in such a wealthy country. everyone should have the opportunity to live in dignity and security.

"middle class" is washington-ese for "regular people"

Per the US Elections Project site, early voting totals are up to 47,095,528 beating the entire 2016 early vote total of 47,015,596. We are now fully into uncharted territory.

huh. hope that means people REALLY hate trump.

In further comparison, the 2012 early vote amount was 32,311,399.

As far as throwing darts goes ...

Based on an update we'll be releasing later today, we're now projecting total turnout in the presidential race to be 154 million, with an 80th percentile range between 144 million and 165 million. In 2016, turnout was 137 million, by comparison.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 22, 2020

As a, er, first responder puts it, "154 million would be a a record by over 15 million votes and the largest election-to-election jump since 2000 to 2004."

Yeah, I've been seeing that 150 million plus amount as well. Elections Project itself has initially guessed overall early vote total would be around 88 million plus but I've seen at least one guess hazarding it could literally reach 100 million -- that would have to mean 50 million plus over the next eleven days plus the rest of today. Possible, but I'm guessing not probable; still, we'll have to see.

that seems pretty bad for Trump

I mean nobody knows anything. I see no reason to think it impossible that armies of first-time hardcore Trump voters will show up on Election Day. Plenty of room for increased turnout from 2016 in Trump's demographic base.

Plenty of room for increased turnout from 2016 in Trump's demographic base.

100% disagree

"increased turnout" for Trump would mean "new Trump voters since 2016"

There's alotta shithead kids who couldn't vote in '16 (or '18) that can now.

Trying to imagine someone aged 14-17 who lived through the past four years and actively wanting more of that.

I mean, I know such people exist, but...christ.

imo the legit thing to be worried about would be these assholes either rigging the election or not acknowledging the outcome.

This is a good piece: Trump's presidential campaign is Too Online

At a campaign rally in Des Moines, Iowa, last week, President Trump waxed philosophical on a subject close to the hearts of everyone in the audience: former Associate Deputy Attorney General Bruce Ohr. “Do you hear the news?” Trump said, “Bruce Ohr is finally out of the Department of Justice.”

If you do not recognize the name “Bruce Ohr,” that’s not because you are inadequately informed — he does not really have a claim to fame. Bruce Ohr, who was a former associate deputy attorney general at the Justice Department, is best known for meeting with former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele, author of the “Steele dossier.” (That’s the document that alleged Trump was under the influence of Russian intelligence services, which had supposedly also compiled blackmail material on him.) Ohr’s wife Nellie worked for Fusion GPS, the opposition research firm that employed Steele to write the infamous dossier.

Ohr’s name has come up in conservative media countless times as proof that the investigation into Trump’s ties with Russian assets was tainted from the beginning.

But Iowans are likely more concerned about rising numbers of coronavirus-related hospitalizations and a potential surge in unemployment (an issue Trump’s campaign focused heavily on in 2016). So with a few weeks to go until Election Day, why was the president instead cheering the exit of a former Justice Department official — on whom I wrote an article in 2018 and still had to look up his backstory?

The answer is that Donald Trump and his campaign are poisoned by toxic levels of being Extremely Online.

I can think of maybe two new Trump voters, one in jail for murdering somebody in Wisconsin - he can still vote right? - the other appeared iirc at the Republican national convention. That's two.

In all (or more) seriousness, I worry the Trump administration has, true to character, tipped its hand by casting blame. That Proud Boys email that went to Dem voters? That was allegedly from Iran, and it was done to ... help Biden? And now this:

BREAKING: U.S. administration officials have been watching Russia's FSB penetrate state and local systems in recent weeks and believe they have pieced together Russia's plans for election interference. https://t.co/a3Lo69MmgL It is far worse than Iran. w/ @julianbarnes @SangerNYT

— Nicole Perlroth (@nicoleperlroth) October 22, 2020

Which indicates to me that after the election the administration will finally concede Russian interference but claim that it was done to ... help Biden. And that will be their pretense for contesting results.

imo the legit thing to be worried about would be these assholes either rigging the election or not acknowledging the outcome.

... or the Democrats not taking the Senate, or taking the Senate and the WH but not packing the court (I can't imagine a world where they do pack the court, tbh.) there's a lot to worry about!