"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

I wish early voting was indicative of anything more than generic enthusiasm. Because I've heard the occasional murmur of Republican registration being up, and Republican enthusiasm being up also, at least in some places. Fortunately, even if true, 2016 was a squeaker, enough so that even Republican enthusiasm might not win this one if they're just a hair less enthusiastic than last time.

If Trump gets the exact same number of votes he got in 2016, he loses. Because the Democrats are fired up, have been fired up for four years (see 2018), and the third party vote is approximately 50% of what it was four years ago. The assholes who voted for Jill Stein or whoever are either not voting, or falling in line for Biden. The "how bad could it get?" voters have all learned exactly how bad it can get.

I don't think this country can take another four years of Asshole. Like, even if he did nothing but order fast food take out every night and post pictures of it.

I keep having to remind friends (not necessarily here) that, you know, 2018 happened.

I'm just grateful that after telling my kids that they were going to wake up to the first female president they don't think *I'm* the asshole. At least not to my face.

the narrative around Trump (even here in some corners) was "he's just saying things to get elected, and he'll pivot to the middle". easier to vote for someone when you can convince yourself of that rather than waking up and looking at the coronavirus death toll each day.

I don't think this country can take another four years of Asshole. Like, even if he did nothing but order fast food take out every night and post pictures of it.

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, October 22, 2020 9:56 AM bookmarkflaglink

post pictures of his food, or his asshole

Unscientific, I know, but my feeling is that turnout is key, regardless of how many more republicans vote this time around. Because there are simply more democrats or democrat-leaning (potential) voters.

as 538 pointed out, people continually neglect the Independents, who largely swung the vote to Trump. they broke for him in 2016. they're breaking away from him now. no Republican registration increase can offset this huge demographic he had and is now losing.

Republican enthusiasm might not win this one if they're just a hair less enthusiastic than last time

Enthusiasm would be a useful measure if you were allowed to vote multiple times if you were rilly RILLY enthusiastic.

The measure that matters is intent to vote, and follow-through on that intention.

Cf. Rachel Bitecofer. This isn't the year of enthusiasm. It's the year of negative partisanship. I don't need to love Biden (and I don't). I just need to hate Trump (and I do).

Well, to be fair re: enthusiasm, it's still a pretty sure thing that tens of millions of eligible voters *won't.* Real enthusiasm gets those asses off the bench.

Anyway, I do feel relatively comforted by the signs of momentum over the past 4 years. 2018 was such a necessary salve, yet those feelings of (political) elation have been few and far between, because so much has been at stake each time.

Rosy take from Harry Enten on GOP internal polls:

I looked at more than a dozen of these partisan polls released to the public from House and Senate races since the major party conventions in August. These partisan polls are notoriously unreliable, and none of them meet CNN standards for reporting.

The reason is simple: Partisans don't want to release polls that are bad for their side. That means the polls sponsored by a party, candidate or partisan organization tend to be biased in favor of the side releasing the poll.

That's why it was amazing to find that on average, Trump was doing 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the states and districts in released Republican and conservative polls.

If Trump actually did 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the swing states, it would mean he'd lose Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those states, plus the ones Hillary Clinton won in 2016, would be more than enough for Biden to get over 270 electoral votes.

But remember: These are only the polls conservatives and Republicans were willing to put into the public sphere. There's good reason to believe it's worse for Trump in the numbers they're not releasing.
A study from FiveThirtyEight reveals that internal polls are 4 or 5 points more favorable on average to the side for whom the poll was conducted than what you'd expect from a nonpartisan pollster in the same race.
This meshes with what was previously reported by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report -- mainly, that internal polls by both sides that have not been released are even worse for Trump than the internals that are being put out by conservatives and Republicans.

I'll see your rosy take and raise you this:

So here's a question I've been mulling: if GOP retains the Senate and Biden wins, why would McConnell ever give a hearing or vote to a single Biden judicial nominee?

— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) October 22, 2020

Oh that's already priced in. I think, ironically enough, Trump and McConnell have permanently destroyed the machinery of advice and consent on that stuff. It will be a lot of recess appointments and "actings" named to posts. https://t.co/70j5BXZDA4

— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) October 22, 2020

Josh, two things to give you a smidgen more hope: one, as President Keyes writes,

while new GOP registration is up since 2016, it's not enough to make up for the republican voters who have died in the past 4 years

Not to be grim but it's worth noting how many of those voters died because of COVID and/or shitty health care. I don't wish to be too callous but there is an element of self-ownage there.

Second: The Trumpian "we don't need to expand our base, we just need to whip it up into a greater frenzy" strategy can't work forever. I am looking at this NYT graphic and... it is brutal.

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/10/21/us/trump-voters-demographics-promo-1603330295488/trump-voters-demographics-promo-1603330295488-threeByTwoLargeAt2X-v3.png?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale&width=600

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/22/us/politics/trump-voters-demographics.html

I think we're at the point where if Biden loses, it means the polls were wrong by a larger order of magnitude than they've ever been wrong before, to the point where I don't think they could ever be trusted again. the big factors that swung things Trump's way in 2016 do not exist in 2020. nobody gives a shit about Hunter Biden's laptop and we know that Trump is absolutely incapable of saying or doing anything that appeals to people beyond his core 38%. its getting to the point where it would take every single undecided & independent voting for Trump AND an entire polling error on top of it to even get close enough for Trump to try to kick this thing to the Supreme Court.

otm

Donald Trump Jr is now accusing Hunter Biden (without evidence) of being link to "human trafficking and prostitution rings" pic.twitter.com/gHhlukQ8cN

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 22, 2020

Have been hearing taht GOP is not stopping attempting to manufacture a repeat of those obstacles to the Dem win in 2016. TO an absurd degree, not just Giuliani horseshit.
BUt oddly thinking that if you try to repeat things that chance threw up back then they will not be scrutinized.

RE: enthusiasm - I did not vote for Biden in the primary and was not enthusiastic about him as a candidate. will say - at times - he's done better as a candidate than i thought he would.

however, there's different types of enthusiasms. i will never ever in my life like any politician more that i hate donald trump.

Can Hunter Biden sue for defamation or would he be considered a public figure?

Republicans lack imagination, you can tell because the worst crimes they can think to accuse Democrats of are always the worst crimes they have themselves committed.

Donald Trump Jr is now accusing Hunter Biden (without evidence) of being link to "human trafficking and prostitution rings"

looooooooool, I was going to make a joke this morning about Trump's October surprise being a completely baseless accusation of Biden's serial killing proclivities but I see we're already hurtling toward what in normal times would be a hyperbolic and utterly absurd fictional scenario.

Can't wait for this entirely family to be begging for change on street corners.

ly

The LBJ analogy seemed uh off to me, but I agree with much of this post.

This is nothing like 2016. This is very 2008 vibes except probably better because the extent of the victory is shaping up to be bigger.

There was both a darkness to the Fall of 2016 in the country and a basic competence in the Trump campaign for the closing arguments, along with Hillary hate, and they’ve got none of that this time. They’re down double digits with less than two weeks to go, one of his chief advisers just got caught rubbing his crotch in front of what he thought was an underage girl, he got caught paying more money in taxes to the PRC than he does to this country tanks to his secret Chinese bank account, they’re playing defense in Texas and early voting is smashing records. Oh yeah and there’s a pandemic he botched the response to that has killed more Americans than in all of WWI (and counting)....

....I know our political discourse since 2000 is incapable of admitting when an election is over, and obviously we still have to vote–which doesn’t seem to be an issue as the same polls that show Biden with double digits show that everyone also thinks Trump will win the election by just as wide a margin–but it’s effectively all over but the shouting.

i will never ever in my life like any politician more that i hate donald trump.

Otm. You are a Bitecofer voter.

f hazel otm

i will never ever in my life like any politician more that i hate donald trump.

just wait until someone like Dan Crenshaw runs and wins in a landslide because he attracts both the Trumpentariat and the stolid suburban moms&dads and becomes more popular than Reagan ever was despite implementing policies that are to the right of anything Trump ever attempted just because he can string complete sentences together and actually accomplishes all the deeply evil things that trump has thankfully botched so far

Jennifer Lawrence just revealed that she grew up Republican and voted for McCain in 2008 but that Trump "changed everything" and made her rethink her politics. Now she can't imagine supporting a party that doesn't support "basic women's rights" and is nostalgic for the Obama years, when "you could go days without thinking of the president."

Despite the fact that she's a celebrity and therefore not exactly a typical voter, my guess is that there are a lot of people like this, who maybe didn't think too deeply about politics before Trump but who have been activated by his presidency to vote firmly against him.

By 2016 the combination of Obama's presidency and Trump's candidacy had activated the racial resentment of a lot of otherwise politically disengaged voters, while simultaneously making a lot of liberal-leaning voters (who couldn't see the strength of the Trump base) complacent about Clinton's chances. But I wonder if in 2020 the scale tips in the opposite direction: A different set of voters that were politically disengaged before Trump (many of them suburban women) are now out in full force, and loyal Democrats are too anxious and paranoid to run the risk of complacency.

Cf. Rachel Bitecofer. This isn't the year of enthusiasm. It's the year of negative partisanship. I don't need to love Biden (and I don't). I just need to hate Trump (and I do).

― fretless porpentine (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, October 22, 2020 10:06 AM (forty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Bitecofer's theories made a lot of sense to me, though admittedly I like an iconoclast story. I don't believe in significant numbers of independents who vote every 4 years by thoughtfully considering the issues instead of the party or person. I think it is a much more instinctual and emotional decision that gets people to vote or not.

This was why it is a shame that Bernie or Warren didn't win the primary because I thought running against someone as dislikable and putrid as Trump would be the best chance a candidate like them would ever have.

Cf. Rachel Bitecofer. This isn't the year of enthusiasm. It's the year of negative partisanship. I don't need to love Biden (and I don't). I just need to hate Trump (and I do).

― fretless porpentine (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, October 22, 2020 10:06 AM (forty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Bitecofer's theories made a lot of sense to me, though admittedly I like an iconoclast story. I don't believe in significant numbers of independents who vote every 4 years by thoughtfully considering the issues instead of the party or person. I think it is a much more instinctual and emotional decision that gets people to vote or not.

This was why it is a shame that Bernie or Warren didn't win the primary because I thought running against someone as dislikable and putrid as Trump would be the best chance a candidate like them would ever have.

Having said that, my enthusiasm for voting for Biden and against Trump can be summarized thusly: I would crawl through a 100-yard latrine filled with coronavirus to vote this year.

I think that's how they've set it up in Tennessee.

PBKR

I don't believe in significant numbers of independents who vote every 4 years by thoughtfully considering the issues instead of the party or person. I think it is a much more instinctual and emotional decision that gets people to vote or not.

I would go further: it's tribal.

Those alleged thoughtful independents who claim they look aT the iSSuEs, maaan, not the parties or personalities, are themselves a tribe. And the motto of that tribe is LOOOOK AT MEEEE, I AM SUCH A FREETHINKER. And it's boring.

Email update: I have received 22 emails from the Trump campaign in the last 24 hours. All of them were requests for money. They have no GOTV operation going at all, as far as I can tell — it's all just rounding up as much cash as possible (for the eventual escape to some non-extradition country).

― but also fuck you (unperson), Thursday, October 22, 2020 9:07 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

If there was any possible way it could guarantee he would fuck off and I'd never ever have to hear from him or his trash family ever again, I would gladly donate $100. hell, maybe $500

Republican enthusiasm might not win this one if they're just a hair less enthusiastic than last time
Enthusiasm would be a useful measure if you were allowed to vote multiple times if you were rilly RILLY enthusiastic.

The measure that matters is intent to vote, and follow-through on that intention.

Cf. Rachel Bitecofer. This isn't the year of enthusiasm. It's the year of negative partisanship. I don't need to love Biden (and I don't). I just need to hate Trump (and I do).

― fretless porpentine (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, October 22, 2020 10:06 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

the irony of Trump's obsession with voter fraud is that the way he's campaigning right now would only make sense if people could vote multiple times. unfortunately for him there's only "Vote Trump" and not "Vote Super Extra Hard Plus for Lifetime King Trump"

i would vote for a turd before I voted for Trump this year, except I don'tw ant to publicize it cos I'm too afraid the turd would win

Big game’s on tonight

I'm gonna watch Eagles-Giants instead. If I'm going to sit through a battle of two people who are completely incompetent for their jobs, I'd rather it be Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones.

my mom voted early in nashville yesterday, said it was crowded but fast moving

I reverse commute these days from new jersey to manhattan and the turnpike coming toward the city is covered in trump billboards. I find it odd—is there a point to that advertising?

I will soon be giving a first in television history full, unedited preview of the vicious attempted “takeout” interview of me by Lesley Stahl of @60Minutes. Watch her constant interruptions & anger. Compare my full, flowing and “magnificently brilliant” answers to their “Q’s”. https://t.co/L3szccGamP

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2020

Totally not a dog whistle.

i will never ever in my life like any politician more that i hate donald trump.

just wait until someone like Dan Crenshaw runs and wins in a landslide because he attracts both the Trumpentariat and the stolid suburban moms&dads and becomes more popular than Reagan ever was despite implementing policies that are to the right of anything Trump ever attempted just because he can string complete sentences together and actually accomplishes all the deeply evil things that trump has thankfully botched so far

― Dan I., Thursday, October 22, 2020 10:01 AM (twenty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

there is a that danger sure, but there's only one thing we have in front of us right now, this election, my therapist is trying to teach me not to spend time thinking about things that aren't real and i'm trying to listen.

“Q’s”

unfortunately for him there's only "Vote Trump" and not "Vote Super Extra Hard Plus for Lifetime King Trump"

well yes until Amy Barrett's decision for the majority in Trump v. Federal Election Commission (2023)

Compare my full, flowing

Trump's closing argument is "I can still pee"

no wonder he has to flush so much

haha except not literally Dan Crenshaw apparently because he was born in Scotland?? Weird how so many of these republican stars turn out to have not been born in the USA

This was why it is a shame that Bernie or Warren didn't win the primary because I thought running against someone as dislikable and putrid as Trump would be the best chance a candidate like them would ever have.

― He was very mean to Mr. Chamillionaire (PBKR), Thursday, October 22, 2020 10:04 AM (twenty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is the real bummer...the way things broke out this year, if there was a year a grumpy geriatric socialist from vermont could have one, this was it.