"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

i lold

before i filed this story i preemptively apologized to my editors that i may have added too many joe biden amtrak facts. did you know the station in wilmington is named after him? https://t.co/utHJusahPK

— Oliver Willis (@owillis) October 21, 2020

but his rails...

"Randal always said, 'I have a better chance of dying in a car crash than I do from COVID,'" Kottschade said.

anybody that drives in FL can tell you, dem's not great odds

i mean in the case of anyone under the age of 50 he's pretty much right.

well, yeah. and i suspect he's not the type who thinks much about 'other people' too

but in FL, dying in a car crash sometimes seems an inevitability, esp with teh "Ultimate I-4" project, though roads have been sometimes quiet lately

I have been told "hell is other people"

Xp

xxxp right. it's true but it's an argument to stop vehicular genocide via traffic engineering, tax non-commercial vehicles by weight, automated enforcement of speed limits, etc. etc. it's not an argument to lick doorknobs/ban masks.

oh i agree, i just like shitting on FL

some stats by people who don't understand how stats work

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/pennsylvania-polls-tighten-and-trump-is-now-within-4-points-of-a-second-term

our old friend Tim Carney is a FOX hack.

In contrast:

This is pretty interesting ... starting to see more likely voter models where Democrats *gain* ground relative to the registered voter version. https://t.co/Zsa5W2vWP8

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 21, 2020

I also wonder whether this accounts for some of the gap between the higher-quality polls and the lower-quality ones (higher-quality polls have been better for Biden lately). The higher-quality polls may have more sophisticated ways to account for early voting.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 21, 2020

*pats himself loudly on back*

wow

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Iowa, 46 to 43 percent, according to a new Times/Siena poll.
Joni Ernst leads Theresa Greenfield by 1 in the race for U.S. Senate, 45 to 44 percent.
Trump approval at 46/50https://t.co/Eb3mtqDSyu

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 21, 2020

"We are concerned that the Biden campaign's use of Amtrak's charter train redirected Amtrak's scarce resources during a time of record losses, employee layoffs, and service cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic," they wrote.

On their most recent expenditure report, the Biden campaign reported that it had spent $265,000 to lease the train.

So that kinda sounds like a win/win for Amtrak, no? Biden is actually paying them to ride around, whereas Dotard rides for free.

xp single polls aren't very useful of course

this amtrak thing seems to be .. going nowhere fast haha

"We are concerned that the Biden campaign's use of Amtrak's charter train redirected Amtrak's scarce resources during a time of record losses, employee layoffs, and service cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic," they wrote.

jfc they have no shame

"We are concerned that the Biden campaign's use of Amtrak's charter train redirected Amtrak's scarce resources during a time of record losses, employee layoffs, and service cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic," they wrote.

jfc they have no shame

xp single polls aren't very useful of course

― trapped out the barndo (crüt), Wednesday, October 21, 2020 1:30 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

not on their own, but that specific pollster is generally considered the best for state races and that's not a huge outlier wrt the results from spammier pollsters in IA, which adds up to some confidence.

Lol and Amtrak's resources are scarce because... ???

This is "why are you hitting yourself?" While wearing a nice suit instead of Garanimals.

Meanwhile, Amtrak is great because you can drink the whole time, not just when the beverage cart comes by. Amtrak is like planes except slower and everyone is in first class.

Seriously trains are awesome, everybody take more trains

Early vote count now almost 41 million, and Elections Project now starting to show breakdown of vote origins on the main page:

Total Mail Ballots: 29,425,844
In-Person Votes: 11,502,917

Also per the site, four states have yet to report any votes -- Arkansas and Hawaii on the lower population end, but also Missouri and of course New York, which will cause the numbers to really ramp up next week.

Why does everyone care about Iowa? It has like three electoral ones.

Why does everyone care about Iowa? It has like three electoral ones.

As go the children of the corn, so goes America

if Trump loses Iowa the GOP is gonna get blown off the map

yeah Iowa is a bellwether... if it goes for Biden then it suggests there is in fact a blue wave happening. Also the Senate seat is a pretty essential pickup for Dems!

also, speaking personally here, it's important to watch those states because if things appear to be close in a state like Iowa on election night I think you can pretty much assume its over? like everyone else here I'm terrified about what's gonna happen in the wake of Nov 3rd if it's not immediately clear that Biden won

Uhhhhh look at this picture of Mitch McConnell's hands that @lizzyratner found on AP pic.twitter.com/Y4LJL7mAdh

— Annie Shields (@anastasiakeeley) October 21, 2020

What the fuck

Trump has taped an interview with Jason Whitlock.

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 21, 2020

can't wait for a 20 minute discourse on Bojanglin from these two mind wizards.

Should have made it a threeway summit with Clay Travis

Seriously trains are awesome, everybody take more trains

Give us lots more passenger trains, so we can take them!

Prediction: I think a big big scandal is going to emerge about misappropriation of Trump campaign funds.

Mark Meadows is already catching heat for spending donation dollars on personal expenses even after he left his elected office to be Trump's COS

Good. It'll give Trump someone to sue and cast blame on when he's at loose ends after losing office.

And speaking of

Sen. Blunt, being — very blunt: Question: Any sense of why Meadows came to the lunch? To sell you guys?

BLUNT: I don't think so, I don't think so.... maybe he just needed to get out of the White House.

— Kristin Wilson (@kristin__wilson) October 21, 2020

Should have made it a threeway summit with Clay Travis

― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Wednesday, October 21, 2020 1:25 PM (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Clay Travis = underrated piece of shit in American media

what states begin counting mail ballots on election night

it's all kinds of fucked up though, the're basically going to be saying "you didn't count fast enough, we won" as their attempt to cry foul, even when it's obvious millions of legit mail ballots have been cast

New Jersey and Vermont have joined Texas in an elite club: States where turnout is already more than 50% of the total vote four years ago. https://t.co/TWxouT87Ve

— Dave Weigel, Re-Animator (@daveweigel) October 21, 2020

Mitt Romney did not vote for Trump. https://t.co/BHNtD6X6zY

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 21, 2020

But maybe he did, we'll never know

As much as watching Trump eat shit will be a glorious experience, equally glorious will be watching as all of the people who gave their time and blood and sweat and tears to aid his reelection effort are torn to shreds by Trump himself. I don't know how people haven't figured out by now that having anything to do with him is ultimately thankless as all hell.

Mitt finally got his revenge
https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/161129212927-trump-romney-full-169.jpg

Kayleigh McEnany presenting Lesley Stahl (@60Minutes) with some of the many things we’ve done for Healthcare. Lesley had no idea! pic.twitter.com/8bfIxkFiXt

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 21, 2020

so uh the book is clearly blank, right? look at the final image

it looks like a sheet cake

what states begin counting mail ballots on election night

― eat my room temperature ass (Neanderthal), Wednesday, October 21, 2020 2:37 PM (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/13/us/politics/when-votes-counted.html

i.e. PA and WI will be the last to start counting.

FL and AZ are the ones to watch on the night. they should finish that night, and if they go biden enough for the networks to call them then it's over.