"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

I agree it's dumb but it's even more idiotic that our country is set up so that a minority party can just unilaterally decide to grind the entire federal government to a halt until they cheat their own guy in

(as in, it’s just something for the media to chew on for a day or so and not actually real)

Xpost to self

forget about politics, i'm skipping straight ahead to the benghazi of biden's term:

Fox News is now pushing for Barr or Trump to appoint a special counsel to investigate the Hunter Biden smear story. It is is reminiscent of the network’s successful campaign to get a House Select Committee on Benghazi. https://t.co/FyYHyL77Uu

— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) October 20, 2020

although, if they can manage to take back the senate, keep the house, and win the presidency, republican attempts to form #Benghazi 2: the Laptop of Hunter Biden will be thwarted

well, they've got less than two weeks to get it together.

because if anything i think that is drastically underestimating it, just been checking MN and they haven't updated the number since last week

I'm sure it's how states report etc etc but I bet it's actually way more

Oh, entirely likely -- it's worth noting the fellow who runs the site/project always says 'at least' when reporting his numbers, so in actuality they are higher.

More people have now early voted in TX than the number of people who voted for Donald Trump in TX in 2016.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 20, 2020

Crazy. And with two weeks to go that number will just ramp up.

Tim Alberta's latest on his hunches is 1) short, thankfully and 2) hones on a key point I think is getting more and more obvious, however much he's still cautious about it:

But if Trump loses, the biggest factor won’t be Covid-19 or the economic meltdown or the social unrest. It will be his unlikability.

As I wrote last week in a dispatch from Arizona, sometimes you hear a voter say something “so basic, so one-dimensional, that you’re inclined to dismiss it until you hear it for the thousandth time.” That’s the story of this election: All across America, in conversations with voters about their choices this November, I’ve been hearing the same thing over and over again: “I don’t like Trump.” (Sometimes there’s a slight variation: “I’m so tired of this guy,” “I can’t handle another four years of this,” etc. The remarkable thing? Many of these conversations never even turn to Biden; in Phoenix, several people who had just voted for the Democratic nominee did not so much as mention his name in explaining their preference for president.

Generations of pollsters and journalists have fixated on the question of which candidate voters would rather have a beer with—a window into how personality translates into political success. Here’s the thing: Americans have been having a beer with Trump for the past four years—every morning, every afternoon, every evening. He has made himself more accessible than any president in history, using the White House as a performance stage and Twitter as a real-time diary for all to read. Like the drunk at the bar, he won’t shut up.

Whatever appeal his unfiltered thoughts once held has now worn off. Americans are tired of having beers with Trump. His own supporters are tired of having beers with Trump. In hundreds of interviews this year with MAGA loyalists, I have noted only a handful in which the person did not, unsolicited, point to the president’s behavior as exhausting and inappropriate. Strip away all the policy fights, all the administrative action (or inaction), all the culture war politics, and the decision for many people comes down to a basic conclusion: They just do not approve of the president as a human being.

He then adds a bit about how Dan Crenshaw's own constituents are telling him they're not supporting Trump, which causes me no end of delight.

remember when Dem operators fretted about Biden's canceling negative advertisements two weeks ago?

major Trump fatigue is a big factor for sure. He's not some outsider that voters are curious about and don't like the mean lady anyways.

Biden just needs to ask Trump if he's wearing a diaper during the debate, and ask him what color and brand it is

Biden should run an ad on Halloween that's just a still image of Trump's grinning jack-o'lantern face for a full minute, and at the end have a voice intone "if you've made it this far, imagine another four years looking at that fuckin' face."

The reaction from audiences everywhere (NSFW on the grossness front):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2D0kDFKaxE

It'd be perfect on Thursday if they initially keep Trump's mic on, mute him as soon as he interrupts, and then, with a smile, the moderator says "That felt great--we've all been waiting to do that forever."

(And to give you a further idea of the quickness of early voting, it's already up to 34 million now.)

Or they can keep his mic on but keep pretending they can't hear him, like Pee Wee Herman.

Shift his mic an octave up, and then randomly slap on a T-Pain filter

pretty sure the HIS EMAILS thing is less about impacting the vote at this point and more about obstructionism when he's voted in... or, more darkly, as a fig leaf for extralegal action barring him from entering the office.

That will be darkly amusing, because every GOP effort to delegitimize the incoming president can (and will) be characterized as "relitigating the election."

And there will be no shortage of Republican sound bites from 2016-2020 saying that trying to relitigate an election that already happened is a bad thing.

I'm surprised this hasn't happened sooner... think I might just hand deliver my ballot on Nov 3rd, right to the polling place:

Ballot box fire in Baldwin Park may be arson, officials say

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-10-19/ballot-box-fire-baldwin-park-may-be-arson

like they give a shit about that lol xp

I read something recently about how some ballot drop boxes have been designed to be fireproof. Not sure how that works, exactly -- it said that a lit match would extinguish before it could do any damage. But it sounds like the one in L.A. must not have been like that.

You know, when I dropped off my ballot yesterday there was a ballot monitor standing by it the whole time. I find it hard to believe (which is to say, it's totally believably, sigh) that they would have someone standing there watching the box all day but then ... just leave it there unattended all night. I assumed they get moved inside or something.

Not sure how that works, exactly

easy - just fill the ballot dropbox with water. data integrity preserved!

He then adds a bit about how Dan Crenshaw's own constituents are telling him they're not supporting Trump

They'll probably still vote for Crenshaw tho. Although one of his opponent's best ads spotlights his video about about how masks don't work, followed by many medical professionals denouncing him.

Democrats gain in Georgia Senate races as the presidential contest remains deadlocked, per new NYT/Siena poll:
Biden 45, Trump 45
Ossoff 43, Perdue 43, Hazel 4
Warnock 32, Loeffler 23, Collins 17
Warnock+4 v. both Collins and Warnockhttps://t.co/7atcFrw9tS

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 20, 2020

the warnock race will be a january run-off, and this is a good point

In the very plausible scenario where Democrats are looking to extend a Senate lead in two Georgia Senate elections, Trump staying in the news by refusing to concede and juicing D turnout and $$ seems sub-optimal for the GOP.

— sean (@SeanMcElwee) October 20, 2020

They'll probably still vote for Crenshaw tho.

The age of split ticket voting is largely behind us. I think Trump is gonna drag down a lot of members of congress with him.

(the ossoff race is also runoff if neither candidate gets 50%.)

Thread:

Biden v. Trump 10/15 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +11.2/Clinton +6.2
EC: Biden 273-124 (+149)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

Biden lead greater than all undecideds + 3rd party in NINE battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD... pic.twitter.com/5fyZXggOUH

— "No teams" (≠ neutral) Indy (@NoTeamsIndy) October 15, 2020

"Are you threadening me!?!"

https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/beavisandbutthead/images/8/8d/CORNHOLIO_NEED_HIS_TP.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20111118231614

Goddam it!

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/53d58588e4b0c3fee1f6ee3b/1547148905123-RA9C8WYS0D0H7PGWOBOZ/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kBiudcX29aIFlCvO0DkBvJNZw-zPPgdn4jUwVcJE1ZvWEtT5uBSRWt4vQZAgTJucoTqqXjS3CfNDSuuf31e0tVFIIzBwEs6LXQfJjf1i2ANTAJevgah1HBcDBvCRrzVKq5uG45vQwBxdpDrCGUSSl5w/Cornholio.png

"Biden eyes GOP candidates for Cabinet slots"
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/20/biden-transition-republican-cabinet-429972

let me know when he actually puts them in his Cabinet

Early vote total already spiked up to 35.1 million from just three hours back. I'm starting to think this crosses the 47 million threshhold by Thursday.

and this happened this morning:

Here is @CityofMiami Police Officer Daniel Ubeda, in full uniform with badge and gun wearing his Trump mask inside of the polling location in government center.

This is city funded voter intimidation.

Ubeda should be suspended immediately. pic.twitter.com/TbJxu6mcem

— Steve Simeonidis (@stevesimeonidis) October 20, 2020

let me know when he actually puts them in his Cabinet

Seems like an elaborate ruse just to keep Kasich's vote in Ohio.

Ugh why do cops have beards?

because they think of themselves a grizzled SEALS on patrol

Meantime

Some QAnon news: QAnon figure Austin Steinbart, who goes by the alias "Baby Q" and has claimed to be the leader of QAnon visiting from the future via time travel, just filed to act as his own attorney in a federal felony case. What could go wrong?

— Will Sommer (@willsommer) October 20, 2020

Stienbort

BabyQ was last in the news after he was caught with a synthetic penis meant to dodge drug tests https://t.co/3KXueorUkZ

— Will Sommer (@willsommer) October 20, 2020

He was in Fortean Times a couple months ago, they only reason I know who that is.

A lot of ppl registered as Dems in Florida are getting emails like this today. pic.twitter.com/2oDJRz0YTB

— Roxy Horror Picture Show🌹 (@redrawnoxen) October 20, 2020

just voted baby. I’m pretty excited that my vote might actually mean something for the first time in my life in a national election.

feeling relatively bullish on Ossoff; less so on Warnock bc of special election (and, well, racism), but McElwee’s point unthread is good one

upthread

Ossoff's the first politician I've seen in years who I find really cute.

xpost that brings back some great Minnesota Vikings memories of Onterrio Smith and the "Whizzinator"

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2061794

What's going on with Joe Lieberman's son in the Loeffler race?

he seems like a whole lot of what if x, but an app and targeted tax credits guy but hey if he can take out Perdue he’s welcome to wet sloppy kiss from me

What's going on with Joe Lieberman's son in the Loeffler race?