"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

That Nate Cohn twitter thread reads suspiciously like "Nothing means anything! Stay tuned and trust only me!"

Part of me definitely thinks a lot of people are being generally gunshy even in the face of wider trends.

...about those odds.

EXCLUSIVE: Rudy Giuliani says
there is only a ‘50/50’ chance he worked with a ‘Russian spy’ to dig dirt on the Bidenshttps://t.co/3yb8eHJ6X3

— Noah Shachtman (@NoahShachtman) October 17, 2020

I'm not one for stouts, tho, unless they're Imperial.

So, you're not a beer snob, just a beer imperialist?

When your sclera is the same colour as your skin.

Oracle founder donated $250,000 to Graham PAC in final days of TikTok deal https://t.co/Gv5Kc8Xbsw

— ashe dryden (@ashedryden) October 17, 2020

The Nate Cohn thread is not him obtusely saying no one knows anything. We have tons of information. Biden is the favourite. It’s him saying early voting numbers tell us nothing about the outcome of the election. An early vote is not worth more than a regular vote. Yes we have a lot of democratic votes already. But we know the Election Day vote is going to be different. We don’t know how with anything like the precision required to predict close elections. What we’re seeing this year with early voting is so unlike previous years that it’s impossible to extrapolate.

You see the same argument from other pollsters btw. Obviously they have a professional interest in polls continuing to be the main source of information about the election. But imo they are absolutely right.

As Guinness has not been cask-conditioned for decades, the two-stage pour has been labeled a marketing ploy that does not actually affect the beer's taste

counterpoint: https://www.instagram.com/shitlondonguinness

yeah I thought I remembered a lot of similar discussion about early voting in 2016 but I'm not gonna look at those ILX threads for instance to find it---there are posters whose confidence about Clinton's victory made me think less of anything they said for some time, and I'm over that now but would rather not reopen the cask as it were.

#onethread

Very much one thread. I just don't care for the sweet, chocolate nature of regular stouts. Call me a simp but I've always liked hops and high-IBU beers! sorry!

Also, the farmers market this morning was awash in boomers with Biden/Harris gear, smiling smugly while buying apple pies.

if you pour a guinness all at once the head is too big. that challop offtm

Early vote trends are not going to tell us who is going to win. (Maybe Ralston exception.) If you are tempted to use early vote/absentee ballot trends to figure out who is the next prez, please stop. https://t.co/x5Y0ThEwKM

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 17, 2020

Also, the farmers market this morning was awash in boomers with Biden/Harris gear, smiling smugly while buying apple pies.

good good, we need boomers voting biden + more apple pies

The Ralston referred to is Jon Ralston, who is pretty much the guy to follow for any Nevada results, and is a solid news reporter -- he started up an operation called The Nevada Independent after 2016 that's head and shoulders the best resource I've seen for politics in the state, good slate of reporters as well as coverage in Spanish as well. Nate Cohn had a further read on why Ralston and NV can be pretty well predicted in advance:

As an aside, it's worth thinking about why the Ralston/NV-based predictions tend to hold up, while it can be embarrassing elsewhere. I think there are two basic reasons https://t.co/dlPNShttcc

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 17, 2020

Ralston's own feed is at https://twitter.com/RalstonReports

one of the many small shitty things about trump is that his habit of teetotaling makes saying "i don't drink" that much more likely to be sneered at

one of the many small shitty things about trump Bush is that his habit of teetotaling makes saying "i don't drink" that much more likely to be sneered at

Biden doesn’t drink either

who was the last Presidential lush?

Dubya used to get high and start wars

who was the last Presidential lush?

― akm, Saturday, October 17, 2020

Clinton, Carter, and Reagan were light drinkers. Obama and Poppy Bush are the last presidents to enjoy a martini or two (Obama liked craft beer too, that commie)

https://www.politico.com/story/2011/10/eating-like-the-first-lady-065558

I had to drive to Bucks County just now and ran smack into a Trump truck parade, stretching for miles. Hundreds of cars waving Trump flags.

my cursory investigation seems to indicate the last presidents who really liked to put it away (not counting Bush 2, since he was sober by the time he was in office) were Kennedy, and prior to that, possibly FDR.

dunno why but I assumed Johnson was a big drinker. He looks like one.

Call me crazy but I kinda would prefer it if the President was not drinking a lot of alcohol, even Trump (who looks like he's taking other stuff anyway)

Such parades might reassure timid or discouraged Trump voters looking on that it's worth voting, but the participants in the parade were sure as shit going to vote for Trump, come hell or high water. It's just their way of celebrating themselves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYvA1Mh363c

LBJ liked his Cutty Sark. Ford championed the three-martini lunch until Betty admitted her alcoholism.

FDR drank; unfortunately, no one else could drink his vermouth-heavy martinis.

There are various accounts of Nixon drinking heavily his last year in office.

Call me crazy but I kinda would prefer it if the President was not drinking a lot of alcohol, even Trump (who looks like he's taking other stuff anyway)

for perhaps obvious reasons, ford's term marked the last presidency where drinking heavily might be reasonably culturally acceptable.

to wit:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnD4dEt1bng

David Gergen* = or whoever used to chatter on cable news about how ‘bipartisanship’ got done in the good ol days.


note: I’d prefer the Dems/ left become hyper-focused dead-eyed psychopaths intent on universal healthcare and free college

Reading up a little bit more, sounds like Nixon was drunk regularly, but that that didn't require much alcohol in his case (as little as a single drink).

"I kinda would prefer it if the President was not drinking a lot of alcohol" yeah me too, I don't want someone with that kind of decision making power having blackouts

I have a theory the story of Dubya passing out while choking on a pretzel was likely a silly cover story for falling off the wagon.

Hm. This went up a couple days ago.

I do remember Obama, a professor, and a cop staggering around the Rose Garden during some televised beer-bong party.

when you're going to throw an undeserved Score Settling party for a racist cop while being photographed from 150 ft away

make it an o'douls

for perhaps obvious reasons, ford's term marked the last presidency where drinking heavily might be reasonably culturally acceptable.

iirc the beer that Obama drank at the Beer Summit was a homebrew from the WH kitchen, a honey wheat ale.

During the pre-COVID days I was reluctant to brunch because it left nothing for me to look forward to later in the day or early evening.

On many Saturdays pre-COVID I would often get two entrees for brunch along with 4-5 strong beers (not guinness lol) and have a healthy nap afterwards.

it’s a marathon imo

xp

presidents should smoke weed, maaan

(not really joking)

JFK Jr set to be revealed as Trumps running mate today

We once BANNED the stuff for an entire decade (a ban that FDR himself apparently did not heed, according to several accounts), and boozy brunches are still a huge thing among all demographics for which the activity is legal.

Re: Trump parade, Bucks had always had its vile white supremacist element. From my knowledge, it's about half the county, and probably will be until the Northeast creep continues...(that is, until the increasingly Black and non-white Hispanic population of NE Philly moves to the burbs). Other than South Jersey, Bucks is certainly the most racist part of the Philly metro.

tbf one of the things that made me like Warren was her affinity for grabbin beers

If abortions were a for profit, lucrative industry, Republicans would rebrand it with another term, sell a concierge version to rich people, and promote the fuck out of it.

Same reason why they'd never go back and ban beer again