"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Did you italicize a peace sign? I didn't know you could do that.

In the sense that the peace sign was inside the italics, yes. What would have been really cool is if there had been some sort of affine transformation of it.

there was

(Googles affine, learns a new word)

Now imaging some unreleased Westerberg/Nelson collabo and a recently discovered setlist from the 7th Street Entry featuring the letters “RTA.” #OneThread

there was

Vote total update over 25 million as I suspected. That’s now over half the early vote of 2016, approaching 1/5th the overall vote of 2016 and 1/8th of the current total electorate.

So basically this bellend ranting on about how postal votes are all fraudulent has meant way more people voting in person, thereby making his cunning plan to contest the results that much more difficult?

Ums, just to clarify that I'm definitely not a beer snob. I drink malt liquor on the regular. If you gave me a choice between Guinness and an Axe Head or Steel Reserve, I'd choose the latter every time-- I just think Guinness is bad! I'm not one for stouts, tho, unless they're Imperial.

Yeah it’s worth noting that while there certainly have been mail votes in that total, of course (or direct dropoffs of ballots), there’s been a hell of a lot of in person voting, with numbers that will increase as more early voting options open up, like in Florida next week. I’ve been wondering more than once about how Trump and company’s rumblings about poll watchers on Election Day, while obviously horrible, are also missing out on the minor fact that a huge amount of voters are basically cutting them off at the pass. Certainly there’s going to be a lot of voting on the day but I do wonder how much of it will essentially be banked and done.

I think what’ll be telling is the numbers for next week. We went from about 8 or so million votes on Monday morning to 25 million this morning; allowing for slower weekend numbers, the question is how many votes are in place by this time next week. If it’s somehow 45 million or so — just shy of the 2016 early vote total — with 10 further days to go, then that’s a heck of a shift.

Worth noting, meantime, that various figures on polling Twitter are hesitant if not skeptical at saying this is clearly a Biden slam-dunk, and that’s fair. But there’s been an increase in noting at how this can change likely voter projections, and how numbers are starting to match up to some degree. I stick with my guess we’re seeing general increased enthusiasm but with a clear bent nonetheless.

One other thing: it’s also been argued in a couple of spots that enthusiasm itself might not mean an actual increased vote total in the end. Which would be interesting if depressing since that would mean about a third of the electorate still didn’t vote. Now I’m hardly expecting 100% but it’d be nice to see somewhat higher numbers. Anecdotally that certainly seems to be the case but we won’t know until we do.

guinness is good, you ipafucks

i hate IPAs

i like Guinness

I like stouts

I like butts

I like like

ipacacs would be a good put down.

I like stouts, just not that one. Who owns Guinness, Diageo?

Jim Guinness iirc

James "Jim" Guinness.

yerac otm

Kip Guinness

So the mail carrier in Pittsburgh that discarded bags of mail is a Q guy?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/usps-worker-suspected-throwing-away-230656498.html

A good polling Twitter thread re what early voting and party ID might or might not mean. Again, think of these totals as measures of enthusiasm rather than clear signs, at least for now. We’ll know if it’s otherwise soon enough:

You'll see a lot of early voting statistics out there that cite the partisan makeup of early voters, like, say, a D+15 among absentees in Florida, based on registration.
But remember this: the presidential preference of these voters is even more skewed than the party reg.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 17, 2020

Notable (Harris being of course the county where Houston is; Abbott’s clear shenanigans at trying to limit early voting seems to have just sparked a backlash and response in kind):

Not out of the question some large TX counties like Harris could exceed their *total* 2016 votes cast before Election Day. Just massive. https://t.co/tDQuoKE4Fs

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 17, 2020

omg, early voting numbers are correlating with the spike in covid, voting causes covid, stay at home!

can i just say there will never be a better us politics thread title

especially since I keep thinking it's a quote from "Housequake."

The beauty is still on duty, unfortunately.

That Nate Cohn twitter thread reads suspiciously like "Nothing means anything! Stay tuned and trust only me!"

that's every twitter feed

Holy shit those Q nerds claim JFK Jr will be appearing at Trump's Dallas rally to replace Pence!? This thing goes deeeeep.

it does seem to matter about the pouring process. Can't just pour it straight like a lager or something.

Before the 1960s, when Guinness adopted the current system of delivery using a nitrogen/carbon dioxide gas mixture, all beer leaving the brewery was cask-conditioned. Casks newly delivered to many small pubs were often nearly unmanageably frothy, but cellar space and rapid turnover demanded that they be put into use before they could sit for long enough to settle down. As a result, a glass would be part filled with the fresh, frothy beer, allowed to stand a minute, and then topped up with beer from a cask that had been pouring longer and had calmed down a bit.[74] With the move to nitrogen gas dispense in the 1960s, it was felt important to keep the two-stage pour ritual in order to bring better consumer acceptance of the modern nitrogen-based delivery. As Guinness has not been cask-conditioned for decades, the two-stage pour has been labeled a marketing ploy that does not actually affect the beer's taste.[75]

Cohn is being cautious because we thought we had a heavy early voting advantage in 2016, too

Holy shit those Q nerds claim JFK Jr will be appearing at Trump's Dallas rally to replace Pence!? This thing goes deeeeep.

― Josh in Chicago, Saturday, October 17, 2020 10:02 AM (eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah but if this happens, won’t we feel silly for making fun of it???

In 2018, Beto beat Cruz in Harris County by 16 points. And the blue wave of 2018 is one reason why Harris County is smashing early voting records now... Diane Trautman (a Democrat) replaced Stan Stanart (Republican) as Harris County Clerk. Trautman stepped down in May 2020 for health reasons and was replaced by another Dem, Chris Hollins. They've been working very hard to make it easier to vote and increase turnout. And naturally Abbott and the state government have been fighting them every step of the way.

That Nate Cohn twitter thread reads suspiciously like "Nothing means anything! Stay tuned and trust only me!"

Part of me definitely thinks a lot of people are being generally gunshy even in the face of wider trends.

...about those odds.

EXCLUSIVE: Rudy Giuliani says
there is only a ‘50/50’ chance he worked with a ‘Russian spy’ to dig dirt on the Bidenshttps://t.co/3yb8eHJ6X3

— Noah Shachtman (@NoahShachtman) October 17, 2020

I'm not one for stouts, tho, unless they're Imperial.

So, you're not a beer snob, just a beer imperialist?

When your sclera is the same colour as your skin.

Oracle founder donated $250,000 to Graham PAC in final days of TikTok deal https://t.co/Gv5Kc8Xbsw

— ashe dryden (@ashedryden) October 17, 2020

The Nate Cohn thread is not him obtusely saying no one knows anything. We have tons of information. Biden is the favourite. It’s him saying early voting numbers tell us nothing about the outcome of the election. An early vote is not worth more than a regular vote. Yes we have a lot of democratic votes already. But we know the Election Day vote is going to be different. We don’t know how with anything like the precision required to predict close elections. What we’re seeing this year with early voting is so unlike previous years that it’s impossible to extrapolate.

You see the same argument from other pollsters btw. Obviously they have a professional interest in polls continuing to be the main source of information about the election. But imo they are absolutely right.

As Guinness has not been cask-conditioned for decades, the two-stage pour has been labeled a marketing ploy that does not actually affect the beer's taste

counterpoint: https://www.instagram.com/shitlondonguinness

yeah I thought I remembered a lot of similar discussion about early voting in 2016 but I'm not gonna look at those ILX threads for instance to find it---there are posters whose confidence about Clinton's victory made me think less of anything they said for some time, and I'm over that now but would rather not reopen the cask as it were.

#onethread

Very much one thread. I just don't care for the sweet, chocolate nature of regular stouts. Call me a simp but I've always liked hops and high-IBU beers! sorry!

Also, the farmers market this morning was awash in boomers with Biden/Harris gear, smiling smugly while buying apple pies.

if you pour a guinness all at once the head is too big. that challop offtm

Early vote trends are not going to tell us who is going to win. (Maybe Ralston exception.) If you are tempted to use early vote/absentee ballot trends to figure out who is the next prez, please stop. https://t.co/x5Y0ThEwKM

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 17, 2020

Also, the farmers market this morning was awash in boomers with Biden/Harris gear, smiling smugly while buying apple pies.

good good, we need boomers voting biden + more apple pies

The Ralston referred to is Jon Ralston, who is pretty much the guy to follow for any Nevada results, and is a solid news reporter -- he started up an operation called The Nevada Independent after 2016 that's head and shoulders the best resource I've seen for politics in the state, good slate of reporters as well as coverage in Spanish as well. Nate Cohn had a further read on why Ralston and NV can be pretty well predicted in advance:

As an aside, it's worth thinking about why the Ralston/NV-based predictions tend to hold up, while it can be embarrassing elsewhere. I think there are two basic reasons https://t.co/dlPNShttcc

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 17, 2020

Ralston's own feed is at https://twitter.com/RalstonReports

one of the many small shitty things about trump is that his habit of teetotaling makes saying "i don't drink" that much more likely to be sneered at

one of the many small shitty things about trump Bush is that his habit of teetotaling makes saying "i don't drink" that much more likely to be sneered at

Biden doesn’t drink either

who was the last Presidential lush?