"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

I think the conventional wisdom is: Pay minimal attention to individual polls except from like 3 or 4 pollsters (nyt sienna, abc/wapo, etc.) Include the likes of trafalfar in your average but they do lean right, and they are shameless enough to admit they have an explicit *goal* of leaning IIUC which the left leaning pollsters claim no to.

Thread here explaining why hitting refresh on early vote counts tells you nothing much about the outcome except maybe some turnout hints

We've done three NC polls over the last year. We can join them up to the NC state absentee data, so we know whether they've voted early or not. Here's how they've split so far:
Abs: Biden 69, Trump 22 (n=295)
Early: Biden 55, Trump 35 (n=172)
No vote: Trump 46, Biden 42 (n=2083)

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 17, 2020

Guinness is fine you guys are weird

i gotta take a cold dark piss

isn't Guinness supposed to be room temperature dark piss?

if you consider that irish rooms are on the cool side, yes.

Guinness isn't a great stout but I used to drink it all the time in high quantities so I do have a warm place for it

Guinness is a surprisingly pleasant beer to shotgun. Low acidity offset by feeling like you chugged a milkshake.

I just remember at the bar I worked at we had a special line for Guinness that didn't run out from the cooler

Guinness is bad. It's like a version of a thing for people who think they like that thing but don't really know what that thing is because all they can ever find is that thing they think is the thing. Like Budweiser.

yeah Guinness is meant to be cellar temperature, not cold. possibly Americans itt have never had it poured well, too?

and as a result, I put little stock in any Sanders endorsements for city elections.

― akm, Saturday, October 17, 2020 7:19 AM (six hours ago)

Probably for the Direction thread, but: nobody itt was citing Sanders' endorsement of Raman, they're suspicious of or alarmed by two endorsements of Ryu. There seems to be no reason to endorse "a complete nothing go-along-to-get-along" politician except to send a message to young voters, or people who care about homelessness and social services and wealth inequality, that their concerns are unheeded and their votes unwanted.

Looking for Sanders' endorsement, it seems both Raman and Davila (yr local person, I'm assuming) were part of a long list under the following statement of intent:

We need to continue building and strengthening our movement from the ground up by electing more progressives to state and local positions. Because the truth is that the victories we accomplish in this election will lay the groundwork for the future of our political revolution. With just 25 days to go, these candidates are counting on our support.

If Davila and some of the other 180-odd names on the list actually suck, that's a pity. But all Pelosi has to say about her reason for endorsing Ryu is:

“Nancy Pelosi is a leader who knows how to get things done. She helped pass Obamacare into law, expanding healthcare coverage for millions of Americans. She has reined in Wall Street, led the repeal of the discriminatory ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy, and successfully beat back attempts to privatize Social Security. She knows how to move this country forward. I am proud to call her my speaker and honored to have her support in this race.”

Huh, that seems to be Ryu speaking. Well, let's see Clinton's profound appreciation of Ryu's demonstrated service to his constituency and at minimum being a massive sexual creep if not actual rapist ethics:

Hillary Clinton is a champion for women’s rights, for children, and for a more just and fair democracy,” Councilmember Ryu said. “She is an icon, she is a trailblazer, and she has delivered real tangible change for the most vulnerable in our society. I was proud to be one of the over 65 million Americans to support her candidacy for President of the United States, and I am beyond humbled to have her support in my campaign.”

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Budweiser is also good.

"11 before 11" (11 20z pints before 11pm) is traditionally done with guinness because anything else is basically impossible. it's a very good drink at what it does.

Be a beer when there is no other beer?

be a beer you can drink in tremendous volume with the rest of the rugby club

none better

Guinness is delicious, I just drank four of them

Don’t particularly like biden even to get a beer with but I’m reading the supposed death blow to bidens campaign and hoping I can be as good a dad as him, so great job giuliani etc.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/16/texts-show-raw-intimate-exchange-between-joe-and-hunter-biden/

yeah that brought me to tears

same, and I mostly hate the guy

Guineas used to have an ice cold option available at the bar for a number of years.specific cold tap version.
& it does seem to.matter about the pouring process. Can't just pour it straight like a lager or something.

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/HRxeomGpTQ0bqc8tBk8_eQ--~A/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9MTI4MDtoPTk2MA--/http://41.media.tumblr.com/7a7c84b944adac115d488ca47dd7187a/tumblr_inline_o41d3sd94I1tcrq9x_1280.jpg

Maybe Biden doesn't play up the Irish thing because it means playing up the Catholic thing which doesn't seem like it's in the plus column for presidents.

daring stuff from Clinton with the half-pint of Murphy's

“I feel your pint!”

Guinness is irredeemably bad, and I've had good pours at good pubs. Still is a shitty stout!

Catholic thing which doesn't seem like it's in the plus column for presidents.

Also not historically popular with yer Guinness overlords.

I haven't had a Guinness in years -- I'm not much of a beer drinker -- but I won't turn it down, you savages.

*non-drinker stays quiet*

Guinness is bad. It's like a version of a thing for people who think they like that thing but don't really know what that thing is because all they can ever find is that thing they think is the thing. Like Budweiser.

― Josh in Chicago, Friday, October 16, 2020 10:32 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Oooh tell me more Professor Beer on second thought eat my room temperature ass

Bragging about being as beer snob in 2020 is so lame it's incredible

Like who hasn't had like 1,000 different craft beers at this point get over yourself

Ha! I just don't like the beer! I assume it's one of the only stouts people can name off the top of their head, including me, because it's so well marketed. You want beer snob, my wife is in beer marketing and keeps telling me the hard seltzer train shows no sign of slowing down. Now, if there's anything that can unite us all it's an aversion to hard seltzer.

I like Guinness! It's fine. I know, I have had other stouts. I dunno

Hard seltzer I'm good for one, but I drank a bunch once and my stomach was a wreck, it's so acidic. There is a local beer company Fulton that started making one I liked better, it's way less flavor, kind of like a mineral water with a twist of lime, etc but alcoholic

But yeah more than one I can't do

My job is done here

cold dark piss vs room temperature ass

if only we had Adrian here for the swing vote

I just remembered that once as a gift I had a custom ice cream flavor made for my wife based on her preferences, and I think Guinness played a role. It was a chocolate milk stout with shortbread and toffee, and it was delicious. Could have been any stout, I guess. The ice cream maker was Joe Swanberg's wife! She loved the result, but shortly thereafter moved on from her hobby.

Is that from that recent Sing “☮️” the Times reissue?
xp

lol, ums, does that make you a ... hard seltzer snob?! ;)

Ugh, Sign “☮️” the Times

Did you italicize a peace sign? I didn't know you could do that.

In the sense that the peace sign was inside the italics, yes. What would have been really cool is if there had been some sort of affine transformation of it.

there was

(Googles affine, learns a new word)

Now imaging some unreleased Westerberg/Nelson collabo and a recently discovered setlist from the 7th Street Entry featuring the letters “RTA.” #OneThread

there was

Vote total update over 25 million as I suspected. That’s now over half the early vote of 2016, approaching 1/5th the overall vote of 2016 and 1/8th of the current total electorate.

So basically this bellend ranting on about how postal votes are all fraudulent has meant way more people voting in person, thereby making his cunning plan to contest the results that much more difficult?

Ums, just to clarify that I'm definitely not a beer snob. I drink malt liquor on the regular. If you gave me a choice between Guinness and an Axe Head or Steel Reserve, I'd choose the latter every time-- I just think Guinness is bad! I'm not one for stouts, tho, unless they're Imperial.

Yeah it’s worth noting that while there certainly have been mail votes in that total, of course (or direct dropoffs of ballots), there’s been a hell of a lot of in person voting, with numbers that will increase as more early voting options open up, like in Florida next week. I’ve been wondering more than once about how Trump and company’s rumblings about poll watchers on Election Day, while obviously horrible, are also missing out on the minor fact that a huge amount of voters are basically cutting them off at the pass. Certainly there’s going to be a lot of voting on the day but I do wonder how much of it will essentially be banked and done.

I think what’ll be telling is the numbers for next week. We went from about 8 or so million votes on Monday morning to 25 million this morning; allowing for slower weekend numbers, the question is how many votes are in place by this time next week. If it’s somehow 45 million or so — just shy of the 2016 early vote total — with 10 further days to go, then that’s a heck of a shift.

Worth noting, meantime, that various figures on polling Twitter are hesitant if not skeptical at saying this is clearly a Biden slam-dunk, and that’s fair. But there’s been an increase in noting at how this can change likely voter projections, and how numbers are starting to match up to some degree. I stick with my guess we’re seeing general increased enthusiasm but with a clear bent nonetheless.

One other thing: it’s also been argued in a couple of spots that enthusiasm itself might not mean an actual increased vote total in the end. Which would be interesting if depressing since that would mean about a third of the electorate still didn’t vote. Now I’m hardly expecting 100% but it’d be nice to see somewhat higher numbers. Anecdotally that certainly seems to be the case but we won’t know until we do.