"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Yeah, that's a factor for sure re proper mail voting instructions, but not necessarily deciding, and I'm willing to bet it cuts across all levels.

Yeah, that's my fear, too. Also see:

S.C. absentee ballot received by a voter after SCOTUS ruling Monday that witness signatures *are* required. Seems likely to lead to many discarded votes. pic.twitter.com/hdRdPwi2pq

— Trip Gabriel (@tripgabriel) October 10, 2020

It's a bit similar to gathering signatures for an initiative petition, where if you need 100,000 valid signatures, you try to get 125,000 to account for the ones that will be tossed out as invalid. One must hope that the groundswell of revulsion from Trump is so overwhelming that it will overcome a certain 'wastage' of absentee votes and still be utterly crushing.

yeah, i guess i should say that early voting in red states, who knows. i'm sure they're doing everything they can to make voting as difficult as possible, just like every year.

but in blue states or red states with any remaining respect for democracy (utah? maybe none) - states that are trying to do a good job, basically - i'm not worried

It's not that it hurts the Dems more than the GOP, it's that any opportunity for the GOP to call a vote into question (should they choose to go that route) is one too many. Which ... yeah, hurts the Dems more than the GOP, given how hard it is to get the party to fight for what is right theirs (2000 election, Garland, etc.).

Of the unfounded non-fears I have, I was just talking with a friend about how nice it would be if after the election *none* of the bullshit we expect to happen actually happens.

Ben Sasse making a classic "Know what I mean, Vern?" face in that picture

"I think Feinstein knows Ole Lindsey won't be back... she's saying her goodbyes"

He's beating Harrison rather handily in the latest polls.

Anyway, hate all you want but this is funny:

We fixed Don Jr.’s crazy ad. pic.twitter.com/TE929T1f2x

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) October 15, 2020

He's beating Harrison rather handily in the latest polls.

It's South Carolina, not surprising. The question is not necessarily that Graham was going to lose, but how much he would have to sweat. Per Nate Cohn and others, he still is.

Anyway, hate all you want but this is funny:

🐦[We fixed Don Jr.’s crazy ad. pic.twitter.com/TE929T1f2x🕸
— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) October 15, 2020🕸]🐦

Anyway:

Biden is leading in this survey with white voters, 51% to 47%. That is extraordinary. Trump won white voters in 2016 by 20 points.https://t.co/VaQwJaZONh

— Eli Stokols (@EliStokols) October 15, 2020

So far, about a million Texans have cast a ballot during the state's extended early voting period, which started Tuesday. https://t.co/SjpbqnvYwn

— NPR Politics (@nprpolitics) October 15, 2020

xp these are the latest polls, right?

https://i.imgur.com/YbcNZI5.png

MoE on today's NYT poll is 4.5, also. don't count Harrison out. lindsey is a pathetic piece of shit, there are weeks to go.

yeah that's what I saw earlier, namely the NYT poll.

or in other words:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/south-carolina/

23 out of 100. that's a little bit more often than the average baseball player strikes out. you seen a baseball player strikeout recently? those are decent odds, and there are weeks to go.

Trump again upends stimulus strategy, complaining that Mnuchin hasn’t ‘come home with the bacon’

gimme dat bacon

Nate Silver said on the 538 podcast the other day that they give Graham higher odds than you might expect from the polls simply because it's South Carolina, where Democrats don't usually win at the state level. Maybe also because he's a long-time incumbent.

plus, graham just hugged evil radical socialist diane feinstin

*feinstein

Nein-stein.

re: S. Carolina - Well at very least it's forcing the GOP to spend heavily in a state they usually take for granted.

I like 50-state strategy, I just hope opponents to hated but well-entrenched GOP senators don't draw excessive money/attention away from close races.

Don't sleep on Al Gross!

Rudy Giuliani Is My Father. Please, Everyone, Vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

To anyone who feels overwhelmed or apathetic about this election, there is nothing I relate to more than desperation to escape corrosive political discourse. As a child, I saw firsthand the kind of cruel, selfish politics that Donald Trump has now inflicted on our country. It made me want to run as far away from them as possible. But trust me when I tell you: Running away does not solve the problem. We have to stand and fight. The only way to end this nightmare is to vote. There is hope on the horizon, but we’ll only grasp it if we elect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

Around the age of 12, I would occasionally get into debates with my father, probably before I was emotionally equipped to handle such carnage. It was disheartening to feel how little power I had to change his mind, no matter how logical and above-my-pay-grade my arguments were. He always found a way to justify his party line, whatever it was at the time. Even though he was considered socially moderate for a Republican back in the day, we still often butted heads. When I tried to explain my belief that you don’t get to be considered benevolent on LGBTQ+ rights just because you have gay friends but don’t support gay marriage, I distinctly remember him firing back with an intensity fit for an opposing politican rather than one’s child.

I had to read up a bit on Ben Sasse re those comments. I guess he's been about as anti-Trump as any Republican senator except Romney, but I still did recoil, and sure enough, not only did he vote against impeachment, he also voted not to call witnesses. I think the likely parade of Republicans who suddenly repudiate Trump in the next three weeks (or, more likely, in the weeks immediately after the election) are just the worst kind of vermin. I'll exempt him marginally.

I'm quite curious to see how 75% of elected Republicans behave once he looses. No one should ever let them forget their support.

Dear Caroline Rose Giuliani,
Thank you for your post. I can relate 100%.
Sincerely,
James Redd

Trump has 94% job approval with Republicans (pre-going to the hospital). Going to be a lot more people trying to take his mantle than repudiating him.

As a majority, sure. But there will be more than a few trying to move in the other direction. Christie today saying "I was wrong," doubt that's just about masks.

Christie's not (and will never again be) an elected official, though. Also may have seen God or multiple ghosts from his past recently.

literally the only person who has said that 94% of republicans approve of trump is trump. truer number is 57%, which is still significant, but the decline in enthusiasm is more important.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/17/not-only-is-trumps-approval-with-republicans-not-96-percent-energy-appears-be-slipping/

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Scroll down to job approval by party identification.

The WaPo's gotcha that over the summer it wasn't 96%... just 88% isn't much of a gotcha.

Republicans fucking love him. He is the culmination of four decades of grievance and desire to own the libs - why wouldn't they love him?

C'mon... just because as much as it fits the narrative, nine out of every ten of the 82 million registered republicans aren't brainless toadying trumpist goons.

You should tell them that!

80+% in-party approval is pretty normal, Trump just happens to take it to Bush on 9/12 heights.

The WaPo's gotcha that over the summer it wasn't 96%... just 88% isn't much of a gotcha.

Depends a bit on the perspective: From the first to the second number, the proportion of not-approvals has tripled.

the increasing polarization is really bad imo

Lol, Democrats aren't polarized enough yet for my liking.

Is it? It's a reversion to the post-Civil War means. We don't need lib Republicans or conservative Dems

I am still waiting for the Democratic Steve King and it ain't AOC (as much as I love her).

what else do the Republicans have except Trump's politics of resentment.

no one actually likes any of their ideas

and the dueling town halls (?!?!?!?!!!??) are about to start.

i guess i'm outraged on behalf of the shameful ken bones out there, the undecided voters who, for no reason whatsoever, must choose between which broadcast to watch. and like me, i'm guessing they will probably watch trump, because we know what joe biden will say, and we do not know exactly what trump will say, and perhaps trump will have obvious covid-19, or perhaps he will be so 'roided up that he will get angry and call someone a name and lose another 2% off of his republican favorability ratings

Sasse's scolding style might let him stay in the Senate forever if he votes right but it has no legs beyond that.

As stated elsewhere, I am firmly in the hated 'Trump is gonna win' category.... but I don't think it's going to happen because of his deification within the party rank-and-file. I think that a combination of paranoid rhetoric, fear-mongering, and soft suppression tactics are going to hand him enough states to help him win. The Rs I know / am related to absolutely abhor him, and are either planning on holding their nose and voting against better judgment or are outright staying home. I mean maybe they're all in that 4% that disapproves of, bu I dunno...

Earlier someone was talking about or tweeted a quote that shy voters and excitement/approval couldn't coexist and I think that's completely wrong. A Trump voter could be fuckin' hyped to vote for him again but not want to get shunned by the libs in his life or have his kids stop talking to him again.

NBC should be razed to the ground for the shit they're pulling tonight. Is it hyperbolic to call it an affront to democracy?

Christie's not (and will never again be) an elected official, though.

Which didn't stop him from being as subservient as could be the past few weeks. He may have given up on being an elected official, but I suspect he still harbors hopes of being an appointed one someday, and will position himself wherever he thinks that might come about.