"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

It’s top two primary in CA though so she’ll be in the general election even with a strong challenger.

Trump bragged about Reinoehl’s killing at a rally in North Carolina on Thursday, getting cheers for a description of a summary execution by the state.

“We sent in the U.S. Marshals, took 15 minutes and it was over,” Trump said. “They knew who he was, they didn’t want to arrest him, and 15 minutes, that ended.”

idk the raylan givens i know wouldn't do that

ok, maybe he would

So brave

NEW: @SenSasse, during apparent call w/ constituents, excoriated @realDonaldTrump, saying he mishandled #coronavirus, "kisses dictators' butts," spends like "drunken sailor," mistreats women & trash-talks evangelicals. There's so much more... https://t.co/BneEOGX0J6 @dcexaminer

— David M. Drucker (@DavidMDrucker) October 15, 2020

The largest error in here is 5.9 points (1996), which is smaller than Trump's current deficit in Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping-point state. https://t.co/sA7U4Ytotv

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2020

Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2020

(emphasis added) - but yeah, the hand of the nation appears to be poised over the toilet handle and ready to flush Trump out

So the Trump train has even taken out CSPAN boy scout Steve Scully by pushing him to the brink and over the edge?

it's amazing that clinton was able to get such a lead over bob dole (at least at this point in October 1996), while biden is still only 10-11 up, nationally. Dole was useless, but Trump i mean jfc

The 1996 election was the only one of my lifetime which I remember as irrelevant to my interests at the time.

My biggest what-if: Poppy beating Clinton in '92. Would the Gingrich lunacy have been contained? otoh replacing White and Blackmun on SCOTUS would've suuuuucked.

My current fear, probably not unfounded, is that mail-in voters will in big (or significant) numbers be unable to accurately follow the specific instructions on how to vote by mail. Stuff like this does not inspire hope:

🚨🚨Notice to Voters Regarding Mailed Ballots. 🚨🚨 Please use the return envelope provided by DC BOE to return your ballot. DO NOT deposit a ballot in a Drop Box without an envelope OR use your own envelope.

— DC Board of Elections (@Vote4DC) October 15, 2020

reagan +17.7 damn fritz didn't have a chance

i think your fears about people not following instructions are probably a little overblown! i mean, what's wrong with that tweet? i'm sure that's not the only place that DC voters are advised to use the return envelope provided. if it's anything like the Illinois ballot, it said it all over the place in the instructions too.

but beyond just speculation, i also think the early voter data cited by ned and others upthread is a good indication that even if some ballots aren't being properly sent, a huge number of them are getting through

xp

Yeah, that's a factor for sure re proper mail voting instructions, but not necessarily deciding, and I'm willing to bet it cuts across all levels.

Yeah, that's my fear, too. Also see:

S.C. absentee ballot received by a voter after SCOTUS ruling Monday that witness signatures *are* required. Seems likely to lead to many discarded votes. pic.twitter.com/hdRdPwi2pq

— Trip Gabriel (@tripgabriel) October 10, 2020

It's a bit similar to gathering signatures for an initiative petition, where if you need 100,000 valid signatures, you try to get 125,000 to account for the ones that will be tossed out as invalid. One must hope that the groundswell of revulsion from Trump is so overwhelming that it will overcome a certain 'wastage' of absentee votes and still be utterly crushing.

yeah, i guess i should say that early voting in red states, who knows. i'm sure they're doing everything they can to make voting as difficult as possible, just like every year.

but in blue states or red states with any remaining respect for democracy (utah? maybe none) - states that are trying to do a good job, basically - i'm not worried

It's not that it hurts the Dems more than the GOP, it's that any opportunity for the GOP to call a vote into question (should they choose to go that route) is one too many. Which ... yeah, hurts the Dems more than the GOP, given how hard it is to get the party to fight for what is right theirs (2000 election, Garland, etc.).

Of the unfounded non-fears I have, I was just talking with a friend about how nice it would be if after the election *none* of the bullshit we expect to happen actually happens.

Ben Sasse making a classic "Know what I mean, Vern?" face in that picture

"I think Feinstein knows Ole Lindsey won't be back... she's saying her goodbyes"

He's beating Harrison rather handily in the latest polls.

Anyway, hate all you want but this is funny:

We fixed Don Jr.’s crazy ad. pic.twitter.com/TE929T1f2x

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) October 15, 2020

He's beating Harrison rather handily in the latest polls.

It's South Carolina, not surprising. The question is not necessarily that Graham was going to lose, but how much he would have to sweat. Per Nate Cohn and others, he still is.

Anyway, hate all you want but this is funny:

🐦[We fixed Don Jr.’s crazy ad. pic.twitter.com/TE929T1f2x🕸
— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) October 15, 2020🕸]🐦

Anyway:

Biden is leading in this survey with white voters, 51% to 47%. That is extraordinary. Trump won white voters in 2016 by 20 points.https://t.co/VaQwJaZONh

— Eli Stokols (@EliStokols) October 15, 2020

So far, about a million Texans have cast a ballot during the state's extended early voting period, which started Tuesday. https://t.co/SjpbqnvYwn

— NPR Politics (@nprpolitics) October 15, 2020

xp these are the latest polls, right?

https://i.imgur.com/YbcNZI5.png

MoE on today's NYT poll is 4.5, also. don't count Harrison out. lindsey is a pathetic piece of shit, there are weeks to go.

yeah that's what I saw earlier, namely the NYT poll.

or in other words:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/south-carolina/

23 out of 100. that's a little bit more often than the average baseball player strikes out. you seen a baseball player strikeout recently? those are decent odds, and there are weeks to go.

Trump again upends stimulus strategy, complaining that Mnuchin hasn’t ‘come home with the bacon’

gimme dat bacon

Nate Silver said on the 538 podcast the other day that they give Graham higher odds than you might expect from the polls simply because it's South Carolina, where Democrats don't usually win at the state level. Maybe also because he's a long-time incumbent.

plus, graham just hugged evil radical socialist diane feinstin

*feinstein

Nein-stein.

re: S. Carolina - Well at very least it's forcing the GOP to spend heavily in a state they usually take for granted.

I like 50-state strategy, I just hope opponents to hated but well-entrenched GOP senators don't draw excessive money/attention away from close races.

Don't sleep on Al Gross!

Rudy Giuliani Is My Father. Please, Everyone, Vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

To anyone who feels overwhelmed or apathetic about this election, there is nothing I relate to more than desperation to escape corrosive political discourse. As a child, I saw firsthand the kind of cruel, selfish politics that Donald Trump has now inflicted on our country. It made me want to run as far away from them as possible. But trust me when I tell you: Running away does not solve the problem. We have to stand and fight. The only way to end this nightmare is to vote. There is hope on the horizon, but we’ll only grasp it if we elect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

Around the age of 12, I would occasionally get into debates with my father, probably before I was emotionally equipped to handle such carnage. It was disheartening to feel how little power I had to change his mind, no matter how logical and above-my-pay-grade my arguments were. He always found a way to justify his party line, whatever it was at the time. Even though he was considered socially moderate for a Republican back in the day, we still often butted heads. When I tried to explain my belief that you don’t get to be considered benevolent on LGBTQ+ rights just because you have gay friends but don’t support gay marriage, I distinctly remember him firing back with an intensity fit for an opposing politican rather than one’s child.

I had to read up a bit on Ben Sasse re those comments. I guess he's been about as anti-Trump as any Republican senator except Romney, but I still did recoil, and sure enough, not only did he vote against impeachment, he also voted not to call witnesses. I think the likely parade of Republicans who suddenly repudiate Trump in the next three weeks (or, more likely, in the weeks immediately after the election) are just the worst kind of vermin. I'll exempt him marginally.

I'm quite curious to see how 75% of elected Republicans behave once he looses. No one should ever let them forget their support.

Dear Caroline Rose Giuliani,
Thank you for your post. I can relate 100%.
Sincerely,
James Redd

Trump has 94% job approval with Republicans (pre-going to the hospital). Going to be a lot more people trying to take his mantle than repudiating him.

As a majority, sure. But there will be more than a few trying to move in the other direction. Christie today saying "I was wrong," doubt that's just about masks.

Christie's not (and will never again be) an elected official, though. Also may have seen God or multiple ghosts from his past recently.

literally the only person who has said that 94% of republicans approve of trump is trump. truer number is 57%, which is still significant, but the decline in enthusiasm is more important.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/17/not-only-is-trumps-approval-with-republicans-not-96-percent-energy-appears-be-slipping/

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Scroll down to job approval by party identification.

The WaPo's gotcha that over the summer it wasn't 96%... just 88% isn't much of a gotcha.

Republicans fucking love him. He is the culmination of four decades of grievance and desire to own the libs - why wouldn't they love him?