"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

What was the total number of votes cast in 2016?

135 million, more or less; almost 48 million of those were early. So we're well over the 10% mark of the total 2016 vote count at this point, as well as one-third of the overall early vote count. The overall electorate being around 200 million as earlier mentioned, we still haven't breached 10% of that but it's rapidly approaching.

For instance, 1 in 5 who have already voted by mail did not vote in 2016 — a key indicator of enthusiasm, several Democratic strategists said.

Again, not to be a wet blanket, for this to cheer me I would need to know what proportion of voters in a given presidential year didn't vote in the previous presidential election. Is it a lot less than 1 in 5? (Maybe!)

A couple of people in Harris's "orbit" have tested positive.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/15/politics/kamala-harris-campaign-travel-coronavirus/index.html

Whatever the worst possible way to respond to that is, Trump will figure it out.

A Lincoln Project guy being quoted but this is a salient enough point:

"Their campaign has been touting for many, many months that their enthusiasm among Trump supporters is off the charts. You can't have both enthusiasm off the charts and a shy voter issue at the same time. It just doesn't make sense." -@madrid_mike on shy Trump voters @MSNBC

— Stephanie Ruhle (@SRuhle) October 15, 2020

Whatever the worst possible way to respond to that is, Trump will figure it out.

"I'll give you my spare Regenererereon if you drop out!"

It's an enthusiasm that dares not speak its name

Again, not to be a wet blanket, for this to cheer me I would need to know what proportion of voters in a given presidential year didn't vote in the previous presidential election. Is it a lot less than 1 in 5? (Maybe!)

i really need to start that "use this thread when you want someone else to google it for you" thread, for real. sometimes i'm happy to do it (like now!) and other times i want someone else to do it.

10% of voters in 2016 were first-time voters, according to CNN exit polls, but 15% according to the reuters exit poll. reuters had 9% first-time voters for the 2012 election.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oHgs-fZWks

but i take your point: the journalist should have included those details in the article in the first place, because they are important context.

does "did not vote in 2016" mean didn't bother to vote or were too young to vote?

It’s getting hard to escape the conclusion that Joe Biden’s greatest political weapon is that he figured out most of the stuff that happens on this app doesn’t register with normal people who make the difference in primaries and general elections. https://t.co/MbKc1Y69p6

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 15, 2020

i.e. "old people"

It would be pretty ironic if what brings down Trump is that he's the only 74-year old *too* good at social media.

does "did not vote in 2016" mean didn't bother to vote or were too young to vote?

both

i wouldn't worry too much about the "too young to vote" segment of that. science has shown that the portion of the electorate that is 18-21 years old votes approximately 0.0014% of the time - that's less than 200 people!

fyi, #onethread but all my posts today are to be read in the voice of Tim Rogers

i really need to start that "use this thread when you want someone else to google it for you"

Oh I'm that guy too and I did try to google it but wasn't smart enough to think of the phrase "first-time voters" and was unsuccessful -- that said, the relevant number, which I did not succeed in googling (though I only spent like 5 mins trying) is "how many people voted in year x who didn't vote in year x-4" which includes first-time voters but other people too.

(re: Lord Alfred's post) Yes, I had exactly this thought while watching the recent 538 "how can Trump still win" conversation.

Perry Bacon Jr. (who I respect a lot) was expressing surprise about how you'd think Democrats would be more net-savvy (because young and urban or whatever). But it's actually the Trump campaign that is more responsive and faster to react online.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/how-president-trump-could-still-win-re-election/

Most of us here are (by definition) Extremely Online, so we are all up-to-the-minute on the alleged Hunter laptop bullshit, for example. The Durham investigation, the Barr "unmasking" report.

The Biden-Harris campaign is largely ignoring those flareups and mostly staying on message. Maybe it's by design, maybe it's by accident, ultimately it probably doesn't matter... if it works.

Win the Normies, win the nation?

xp eephus i admit it was a hard google! i had to do some searching. sorry, i didn't mean to do the "google it, buddy!" move on you. i actually do want to make that 'google it for me' thread, i've been hyping myself up on it for weeks now

xp

I think it's completely by design

Perry Bacon Jr. (who I respect a lot)

Yeah, that HBO series with Matthew Rhys is supposed to be pretty good, too.

#boringpresident give me this all fucking day please

I think it's completely by design

If a coalition of normals, centrist melts, and oldsters is what we need to hose the Trumpian toxicity out of the White House, I'll take it. (For now)

Returning to sic's quote from David Roth a couple days ago

Joe Biden won’t change anything about American life beyond stripping the Trumpian crassness and cruelty and chaos from its day to day; this is something like the fundamental promise of his campaign.

Insufficient? Yes.

But - a welcome, even necessary development? Also yes.

i.e. "old people"

― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, October 15, 2020 10:36 AM (thirty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don't even think it's necessarily even that - Twitter is pretty niche especially if you consider how many casual users vs. highly active users (a small percentage who do the vast majority of the tweeting)

https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2019/04/24/sizing-up-twitter-users/

but even raw numbers:
Twitter U.S. users - 120M
Facebook - 223M
Tiktok - 100M
Twitter - 62M

twitter's only a big deal to people who are either too online, work in media/tech/writing or both

He'll soon be living in a van down by the river...

omg pic.twitter.com/JhtJ11pZqi

— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) October 15, 2020

lol the only twitter people i know are twitter people

Joe Biden won’t change anything about American life beyond stripping the Trumpian crassness and cruelty and chaos from its day to day; this is something like the fundamental promise of his campaign.

like i can accept hey the US and the earth is going to end in my lifetime but right now i'm so depressed i don't think it's a trivial matter to want to live without this giant ghoul shitting out verbal diarrhea on my head everyday, just the constant babble of shit is so defeating and takes up so much of my headspace

well at least Graham can sell used cars once he's not a senator anymore

pretty much this and i have to believe a ton of people that didn't really care in 2016 feel the same now xp

like i can accept hey the US and the earth is going to end in my lifetime but right now i'm so depressed i don't think it's a trivial matter to want to live without this giant ghoul shitting out verbal diarrhea on my head everyday, just the constant babble of shit is so defeating and takes up so much of my headspace

― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, October 15, 2020 12:19 PM bookmarkflaglink

otm x 100. i didn't realize how bad my headspace was until I spent a few wonderful days visiting a friend and started breaking down after I left, because I hadn't felt that kind of joy in so long and now didn't know when it'd come back next.

like I get that the Lake is polluted, on fire, and needs addressing, but nobody will be able to swim or survive in it if we don't at least slaughter the huge monster eating everybody in it.

(electorally speaking)

without wishing to libel a great man, my understanding is that rupert murdoch (who is 89) is not firing on all cylinders and hasn't been for a couple of years, hence the lack of public appearances.

i would treat any anonymous sources claiming to know what rupert murdoch (who is 89) is privately telling people with a lot of skepticism.

I'll be happy that my mom, who's still recovering from breast cancer and heart surgery, won't be constantly stressed out by said giant ghoul and can enjoy her retirement more.

upper miss and Neanderthal OTM.

With all respect to sic and David Roth* I am still trying to get my head around why this:

Biden won’t change anything about American life beyond stripping the Trumpian crassness and cruelty and chaos

Is supposed to be seen as a HARSH BURN on Biden and an indictment of centrist Dems generally. Removing "crassness and cruelty and chaos" is surely a good thing, right? Right?

No, it isn't quite "ushering in a new world of love, justice, and equality." But could it at least be seen a s step in the right direction?

* = Love "Panama" and the EMT work, btw

Seconding/thirding/fourthing the 'please make the bad man just go away' sentiment. All of his other awfulness aside, my focus lately has been tightening on the fact that his absolute bunglefuckery wrt this outbreak is directly responsible for the fact that I won't see my family for over a year (the #1 most depressing/distressing factor of my day-to-day life in 2020). I need one less thing to suck rn just to be able to function above the baseline. He needs to go so fucking badly.

ftr I love david roth and thought that was a good piece overall, he's the best writer about trump by a long margin...however, i don't think the mental health aspects of trump are trivial at all

xpost - OL - yeah I think esp in northern states everyone is dreading winter coming in, i used to love fall now the chill in the air is ominous.

going to try to go hang at a friend's backyard tonight who i haven't seen in forever going to have a fire going and bundle up to drink beer but even that won't be possible here all too soon

Is supposed to be seen as a HARSH BURN on Biden and an indictment of centrist Dems generally. Removing "crassness and cruelty and chaos" is surely a good thing, right? Right?

Did you read the sentences immediately following it? It's not a HARSH BURN

Joe Biden won’t change anything about American life beyond stripping the Trumpian crassness and cruelty and chaos from its day to day; this is something like the fundamental promise of his campaign. It is a shamefully, laughably insufficient response to a strident American fascism, and a breathtakingly cynical one; while the reality of that fascism is reason enough to cast a vote against it, Biden has been careful to promise nothing beyond that. They’re betting that it’s still enough to earn a vote, and on balance, it absolutely is.

The end of this administration would mean a great deal, but nothing, let alone Trumpism, will end with Trump’s defeat. Voting matters, but what comes next will matter more.

Biden won't change anything about the boot on your neck except that the boot won't be wearing sharpened cleats that have been smeared with Ebola-patients' feces.

i don't think the mental health aspects of trump are trivial at all

― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, October 15, 2020 11:42 AM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

Not only non-trivial, I think the Biden administration needs to do a serious push to provide mental health services to a nation filled to the brim with people traumatized by all of this upheaval and chaos.

I mean, they won't, but they should.

It's insufficient because, barring any meaningful change, you're just right back here in a few years for the next Republican President.

Unless your anxiety is purely wrapped up in the person of Donald Trump, rather than the politics he represents - then you're probably good forever.

"on balance"

I’m sure kaiser permanente will come up w a dope app for that

It's insufficient

i think everyone here agrees with this.

Unless your anxiety is purely wrapped up in the person of Donald Trump, rather than the politics he represents - then you're probably good forever.

i don't think anyone here thinks this.

we used to keep this stuff in the biden thread. what happened to that plan?

An interesting Politico article from Phoenix, where the writer set out to visit Latin early voters, many of whom were first-timers. There are some good quotes, but the conclusion is the point:

When I called the Maricopa County elections office, a spokesperson told me that 180 people cast ballots at McDowell Square that day. I spoke with about 15 of them. There was a great deal of diversity—age, background, socioeconomic status—but they all had two things in common.

First, they were Hispanic, which was intentional for the reporting of this piece.

The second thing was not intentional: Nobody had voted for Trump. I stayed until the polls closed, speaking to every person I could, hoping to find a single supporter of the president. For the first time in this series, every citizen I encountered was voting for the same candidate.

I know, I know—it’s a microscopic sample size. Still, if I were working to reelect the president, it would scare the hell out of me. Trump might be able to weather a bludgeoning from upscale white suburbanites or a groundswell of Hispanic voter intensity. In Phoenix, there is mounting evidence of both.

Insufficient is the word specifically used by Roth in the piece people are complaining about, caek.

i saw this yesterday & it aligned with my general feeling atm

VOTE. The car crashed and we’re trapped in the car and the car is on fire. VOTE to get out of the car so we can put the fire out, vomit up the smoke and go into the years of traction it’ll take to heal. You can’t vote to be fine yet. First you have to VOTE TO GET OUT OF THE CAR.

— Taliesin Jaffe (@executivegoth) October 14, 2020

we used to keep this stuff in the biden thread. what happened to that plan?

There's a button under posts for that.

It's insufficient because, barring any meaningful change, you're just right back here in a few years for the next Republican President.

Unless your anxiety is purely wrapped up in the person of Donald Trump, rather than the politics he represents - then you're probably good forever.

― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Thursday, October 15, 2020 11:48 AM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

ok i'm already sorry i posted but i have never once claimed that it was sufficient or that my anxiety was entirely wrapped up in donald trump!!