"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

lol, sorry. edit: delete

i still do. but goddammit. fuck trump

I've been pretty sure that Biden is going to smoke this fool for at least three months now, though that hasn't really helped with the anxiety. Trump is a uniquely horrible person and as carne asada says, "people are done with this shit."

It depresses me that it is unlikely that the enthusiasm on the left can be maintained and that Republicans can be effectively punished in near future elections due to the pendulum of American politics. I think the best we can hope for is a Democratic party that will now actually put up a fight in non-presidential federal and state races instead of ceding >50% of the country to the Republicans.

Trump is like the world's worst blowhard doesn't do the dishes/flush the toilet house guest, made so much worse because once he's invited over it takes four years to kick him out. There have got to be more than a handful of people that recognize they made a mistake years ago and have just been riding it out in their own way like the rest of us, and fortunately (fingers crossed) if the last election was any indication, a handful is all it takes, really. The people who still like him are like the family members lobbying to have Uncle Trump back in the house for another four years, mostly because he brought them illegal fireworks, shared his cigarettes, and taught the parrot to curse. Also, he brought the parrot and left it with you.

omg

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-intelligence-analysts-hacked-burisma-emails-russia-october-surprise-2020-10

who would have thought? never saw that coming

People have been writing about this coming for months, along with the usual ghouls involved, including that Russian agent who was just kicked out a month or so ago. Every report I heard about that talked about him peddling this information, calling into question the reliability of said evidence and information.

I'm 100% sure this whole thing is bullshit but I'm still interested in the actual process of this thing; what do we think happened here? Is this Issac Mac person a dumb patsy who was duped, or was he colluding with Russian agents all along? Did the FBI ever actually pick up this laptop or not (earlier BI story indicated they could read the name of an FBI agent on the paperwork that was pictured in the NYP story and that it aligned with an agent who worked solely on child porn, which made me think 'great this mean Qanon is going to go crazy')? It seems like a bit of a wild gamble to put hacked shit on a laptop and just drop it off at a place and hope that the guy turns it over to the FBI (the guy's story makes zero sense since he said he tried to contact the owner for a long time but then never comes out and gives those contact details).

Vote totals are absolutely exploding now.I idly wondered if we’d hit 16 million last night and we’re already over 17 million this morning. Honestly thinking there’s an outside chance we hit 20 million tonight or early tomorrow.

What was the total number of votes cast in 2016?

“I just don't know what to say, or what I'm allowed to say,” Isaac said. “I know that I saw, I saw stuff. And I was concerned. I was concerned that somebody might want to come looking for this stuff eventually and I wanted it out of my shop.”

is the guy claiming he saw stuff the guy who also claims he has terrible vision?

I believe so. It's a very specific condition that renders human figures completely indistinguishable, but razor sharp vision for emails, but just the ones with bad "stuff". Also good at seeing stickers.

But his emails!

President Trump’s influential supporter Rupert Murdoch is telling close associates he believes Joe Biden will win the election in a landslide.

The Australian-born billionaire is disgusted by Trump’s handling of COVID-19, remarking that the president is his own worst enemy, that he is not listening to advice about how best to handle the pandemic, and that he’s creating a never-ending crisis for his administration, according to three people who have spoken with Murdoch.

In response to an email inquiry for this report asking him if he believes Biden will win in a landslide and his thoughts on Trump’s handling of coronavirus, Murdoch responded, “No comment except I’ve never called Trump an idiot,” referring to a 2018 report that the media mogul called the president a “fucking idiot” following a chat about immigration.

While Murdoch believes the outcome of the election is a fait accompli, his New York tabloid has been doing everything in its power to help Trump’s re-election chances, publishing a screaming page 1 story on Wednesday under the headline, “Biden Secret E-Mails.” The supposed “smoking gun” emails purported to show that Hunter Biden had introduced his father to a Ukrainian businessman when he was vice president, though the Post relied on unverified documents given to them by Trump’s attorney Rudy Giuliani. (Biden’s team denies that such a meeting took place.)

xpost also the stuff on the laptop scared him so much that he turned it over to the FBI to get it out of his shop--but he made sure to make copies of emails and photos that he could give to Rudy's lawyer?

and I’m disgusted by Murdoch, so we’re all even.

Good Morning!

I can tell you one thing for sure about this otherwise bullshit laptop story: the computer repair shop in question is likely to quickly go out of business now that people have every reason to fear that they will eagerly comb through their files and make backup copies of their hard drives. So kudos on being a multilevel dipshit, there, John Paul Mac Isaac Peter Joe PC McGillicutty.

"I was only there to get directions on how to get away from there" - Seymour Skinner

Looks like my band is playing a (drive-in?) campaign event with Warren this weekend, she's hitting Madison and Milwaukee while Trump is at the Janesville regional airport.

Cool! Wear layers.

“I just don't know what to say, or what I'm allowed to say,” Isaac said. “I know that I saw, I saw stuff. And I was concerned. I was concerned that somebody might want to come looking for this stuff eventually and I wanted it out of my shop.”

Reminds me a little of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy9Z-Tg6ufU

lol

The defunct Trump Plaza in Atlantic City is currently wrapped in black netting to keep people nearby from getting hurt by random pieces of its eroding facade.
It will be imploded altogether in January. pic.twitter.com/tpu4Pbf05p

— Amy S. Rosenberg (@amysrosenberg) October 15, 2020

I know that I saw, I saw stuff.

Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion?

The defunct Trump Plaza in Atlantic City is currently wrapped in black netting to keep people nearby from getting hurt by random pieces of its eroding facade.
It will be imploded altogether in January.

Again, I say: somebody call the writers and tell them their metaphors are getting way too heavy-handed this season.

What was the total number of votes cast in 2016?

135 million, more or less; almost 48 million of those were early. So we're well over the 10% mark of the total 2016 vote count at this point, as well as one-third of the overall early vote count. The overall electorate being around 200 million as earlier mentioned, we still haven't breached 10% of that but it's rapidly approaching.

For instance, 1 in 5 who have already voted by mail did not vote in 2016 — a key indicator of enthusiasm, several Democratic strategists said.

Again, not to be a wet blanket, for this to cheer me I would need to know what proportion of voters in a given presidential year didn't vote in the previous presidential election. Is it a lot less than 1 in 5? (Maybe!)

A couple of people in Harris's "orbit" have tested positive.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/15/politics/kamala-harris-campaign-travel-coronavirus/index.html

Whatever the worst possible way to respond to that is, Trump will figure it out.

A Lincoln Project guy being quoted but this is a salient enough point:

"Their campaign has been touting for many, many months that their enthusiasm among Trump supporters is off the charts. You can't have both enthusiasm off the charts and a shy voter issue at the same time. It just doesn't make sense." -@madrid_mike on shy Trump voters @MSNBC

— Stephanie Ruhle (@SRuhle) October 15, 2020

Whatever the worst possible way to respond to that is, Trump will figure it out.

"I'll give you my spare Regenererereon if you drop out!"

It's an enthusiasm that dares not speak its name

Again, not to be a wet blanket, for this to cheer me I would need to know what proportion of voters in a given presidential year didn't vote in the previous presidential election. Is it a lot less than 1 in 5? (Maybe!)

i really need to start that "use this thread when you want someone else to google it for you" thread, for real. sometimes i'm happy to do it (like now!) and other times i want someone else to do it.

10% of voters in 2016 were first-time voters, according to CNN exit polls, but 15% according to the reuters exit poll. reuters had 9% first-time voters for the 2012 election.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oHgs-fZWks

but i take your point: the journalist should have included those details in the article in the first place, because they are important context.

does "did not vote in 2016" mean didn't bother to vote or were too young to vote?

It’s getting hard to escape the conclusion that Joe Biden’s greatest political weapon is that he figured out most of the stuff that happens on this app doesn’t register with normal people who make the difference in primaries and general elections. https://t.co/MbKc1Y69p6

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 15, 2020

i.e. "old people"

It would be pretty ironic if what brings down Trump is that he's the only 74-year old *too* good at social media.

does "did not vote in 2016" mean didn't bother to vote or were too young to vote?

both

i wouldn't worry too much about the "too young to vote" segment of that. science has shown that the portion of the electorate that is 18-21 years old votes approximately 0.0014% of the time - that's less than 200 people!

fyi, #onethread but all my posts today are to be read in the voice of Tim Rogers

i really need to start that "use this thread when you want someone else to google it for you"

Oh I'm that guy too and I did try to google it but wasn't smart enough to think of the phrase "first-time voters" and was unsuccessful -- that said, the relevant number, which I did not succeed in googling (though I only spent like 5 mins trying) is "how many people voted in year x who didn't vote in year x-4" which includes first-time voters but other people too.

(re: Lord Alfred's post) Yes, I had exactly this thought while watching the recent 538 "how can Trump still win" conversation.

Perry Bacon Jr. (who I respect a lot) was expressing surprise about how you'd think Democrats would be more net-savvy (because young and urban or whatever). But it's actually the Trump campaign that is more responsive and faster to react online.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/how-president-trump-could-still-win-re-election/

Most of us here are (by definition) Extremely Online, so we are all up-to-the-minute on the alleged Hunter laptop bullshit, for example. The Durham investigation, the Barr "unmasking" report.

The Biden-Harris campaign is largely ignoring those flareups and mostly staying on message. Maybe it's by design, maybe it's by accident, ultimately it probably doesn't matter... if it works.

Win the Normies, win the nation?

xp eephus i admit it was a hard google! i had to do some searching. sorry, i didn't mean to do the "google it, buddy!" move on you. i actually do want to make that 'google it for me' thread, i've been hyping myself up on it for weeks now

xp

I think it's completely by design

Perry Bacon Jr. (who I respect a lot)

Yeah, that HBO series with Matthew Rhys is supposed to be pretty good, too.

#boringpresident give me this all fucking day please

I think it's completely by design

If a coalition of normals, centrist melts, and oldsters is what we need to hose the Trumpian toxicity out of the White House, I'll take it. (For now)

Returning to sic's quote from David Roth a couple days ago

Joe Biden won’t change anything about American life beyond stripping the Trumpian crassness and cruelty and chaos from its day to day; this is something like the fundamental promise of his campaign.

Insufficient? Yes.

But - a welcome, even necessary development? Also yes.

i.e. "old people"

― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, October 15, 2020 10:36 AM (thirty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don't even think it's necessarily even that - Twitter is pretty niche especially if you consider how many casual users vs. highly active users (a small percentage who do the vast majority of the tweeting)

https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2019/04/24/sizing-up-twitter-users/

but even raw numbers:
Twitter U.S. users - 120M
Facebook - 223M
Tiktok - 100M
Twitter - 62M

twitter's only a big deal to people who are either too online, work in media/tech/writing or both

He'll soon be living in a van down by the river...

omg pic.twitter.com/JhtJ11pZqi

— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) October 15, 2020

lol the only twitter people i know are twitter people