"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Heightened enthusiasm or dread?!

Yeah whatever it is trump is gonna get fucking annihilated

I’m not about to be all shell shocked from 2016.
This fucker is rightly getting the boot hard AF people are done with this shit, the gop has sucked from him what they could. It’s done

So far, much of the early voting appears to be driven by heightened enthusiasm among Democrats. Of the roughly 3.5 million voters who have cast ballots in six states that provide partisan breakdowns, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 2 to 1, according to a Washington Post analysis of data in Florida, Iowa, Maine, Kentucky, North Carolina and Pennsylvania

Why does this mean anything? We know Democrats are vastly disproportionately likely to be voting early or by mail because unlike many Republicans they know that COVID is not the flu and they don't want to get it or spread it. It would be a huge red klaxon if those early votes WEREN'T two-thirds Democrats.

Okay, thanks.

xp

by itself, nothing. but there are other things happening that support optimism.

for example:

Officials expect early in-person voting to kick off Thursday in North Carolina with the same kind of enthusiasm seen in Texas and Georgia this week — and have logged the same kind of enthusiasm among absentee voters. For instance, 1 in 5 who have already voted by mail did not vote in 2016 — a key indicator of enthusiasm, several Democratic strategists said. More than 1 in 4 newly registered voters have already cast their ballots.

Morgan Jackson, a Democratic strategist for two statewide candidates in North Carolina this year — Gov. Roy Cooper and Senate contender Cal Cunningham — acknowledged that about 80 percent of those who had voted as of this week are people who traditionally vote early in person or on Election Day.

“We are cannibalizing, yes,” he said. “But when you have one-fifth that are new to the process, that tells you that people are motivated to vote like they haven’t been in a very long time. And that is a very good thing for Democrats.”

also, early voting now, all else equal, is very good for biden. when you're dominating in the polls and a bunch of people are locking in their votes, that's good for whoever is way ahead.

There's been heavy 'hmmm' chatter in Polling Twitter today about Quinnipac showing Good Polls for Biden in Georgia in particular, but there's been various explanations, not all favorable to Quinnipac's method of course. But a counterintuitive take from outside that circuit I read today, though, explained it in a way that made more direct sense to me, and which has been noted in various posts before this about other locations or just from similar personal sentiments: Biden is more likeable than Trump and a non-insignificant number of voters respond to that across the board, and that there's a strong chance of a stereotypical assumption going on regarding what that state's electorate is 'supposed' to break down like which is not playing out as expected. Might not be true in the end, but as time ticks down I am thinking there's a greater truth to it than might be guessed. We'll know when we get there.

Heightened enthusiasm or dread?!

Rip 99% of the images on that thread.

Thread of missing dreads.

to Ned's point: Trump is like an incredibly exhausting neighbor, I think a lot of people who voted for him the first time around found him a bit entertaining but now they just wish he'd move away

he was hilarious at that one barbecue! although, he did hit on my wife and he also made everyone sign ndas

xpost And to the point: as I wearily joked on my podcast intro the other day, it's not that I never wished to 'live in interesting times,' but now I *really* don't want to, allowing of course for the fact I've had a much comfortable life compared to the vast majority of people. 'Exhaustion' as such is key.

Something interesting I noticed randomly the other day which likely relates -- Steve Deace, an Iowa rightwing type/blogger/radio guy who I think was one of the more religiously-minded anti-Trumpers who eventually came around (I think -- haven't bothered with him for years, I last noticed him being one of Roy Moore's early supporters in 2017 based on their long friendship and then enjoyed him going down with the ship as Moore imploded) posted something that he definitely felt was important enough to flag, and which seemed to baffle his followers, at least who responded to him. He basically claimed he knows some pollster working with/for the GOP in some capacity -- and I'll believe that, he's a known enough figure -- who told him that while the suburban women this poll person's group talked to were generally in favor of their positions, however defined, they pretty thoroughly hated Trump and wanted him out. Deace's minions spouted a lot of 'how could they think that?/I'm a suburban woman who loves Trump WTF' talk but it really had a sense of a core assumption on their parts being uncomfortably shaken.

Yeah, I think about that “interesting times” thing a lot.

Lol, Karl.

while the suburban women this poll person's group talked to were generally in favor of their positions, however defined, they pretty thoroughly hated Trump and wanted him out

I don't have any kind of a fix on the thoughts or feelings of midwestern suburban women, but this strongly appeals to my imagination and I fervently hope it describes a real thing.

I've said some variation before, but: there hasn't been a GOP president or presidential nominee in my lifetime whose appeal I couldn't understand in the abstract. Like, when divorced from their politics, they've mostly seemed like someone's lame + square dad or grandpa. As a dumb kid, I thought Reagan seemed downright avuncular. But Trump is just such a thoroughly repellent figure on every conceivable level that it continues to baffle me that he has any (uncynical) supporters whatsoever. I'd think by now he'd have become an avatar for that worst person everyone knows: the slimy neighbor, the shifty boss, the off putting coworker. His appeal seems limited to those overflowing with free-floating vitriol who view him as little more than a justification for bailing on their anger management classes.

i used to believe in public service until trump

lol, sorry. edit: delete

i still do. but goddammit. fuck trump

I've been pretty sure that Biden is going to smoke this fool for at least three months now, though that hasn't really helped with the anxiety. Trump is a uniquely horrible person and as carne asada says, "people are done with this shit."

It depresses me that it is unlikely that the enthusiasm on the left can be maintained and that Republicans can be effectively punished in near future elections due to the pendulum of American politics. I think the best we can hope for is a Democratic party that will now actually put up a fight in non-presidential federal and state races instead of ceding >50% of the country to the Republicans.

Trump is like the world's worst blowhard doesn't do the dishes/flush the toilet house guest, made so much worse because once he's invited over it takes four years to kick him out. There have got to be more than a handful of people that recognize they made a mistake years ago and have just been riding it out in their own way like the rest of us, and fortunately (fingers crossed) if the last election was any indication, a handful is all it takes, really. The people who still like him are like the family members lobbying to have Uncle Trump back in the house for another four years, mostly because he brought them illegal fireworks, shared his cigarettes, and taught the parrot to curse. Also, he brought the parrot and left it with you.

omg

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-intelligence-analysts-hacked-burisma-emails-russia-october-surprise-2020-10

who would have thought? never saw that coming

People have been writing about this coming for months, along with the usual ghouls involved, including that Russian agent who was just kicked out a month or so ago. Every report I heard about that talked about him peddling this information, calling into question the reliability of said evidence and information.

I'm 100% sure this whole thing is bullshit but I'm still interested in the actual process of this thing; what do we think happened here? Is this Issac Mac person a dumb patsy who was duped, or was he colluding with Russian agents all along? Did the FBI ever actually pick up this laptop or not (earlier BI story indicated they could read the name of an FBI agent on the paperwork that was pictured in the NYP story and that it aligned with an agent who worked solely on child porn, which made me think 'great this mean Qanon is going to go crazy')? It seems like a bit of a wild gamble to put hacked shit on a laptop and just drop it off at a place and hope that the guy turns it over to the FBI (the guy's story makes zero sense since he said he tried to contact the owner for a long time but then never comes out and gives those contact details).

Vote totals are absolutely exploding now.I idly wondered if we’d hit 16 million last night and we’re already over 17 million this morning. Honestly thinking there’s an outside chance we hit 20 million tonight or early tomorrow.

What was the total number of votes cast in 2016?

“I just don't know what to say, or what I'm allowed to say,” Isaac said. “I know that I saw, I saw stuff. And I was concerned. I was concerned that somebody might want to come looking for this stuff eventually and I wanted it out of my shop.”

is the guy claiming he saw stuff the guy who also claims he has terrible vision?

I believe so. It's a very specific condition that renders human figures completely indistinguishable, but razor sharp vision for emails, but just the ones with bad "stuff". Also good at seeing stickers.

But his emails!

President Trump’s influential supporter Rupert Murdoch is telling close associates he believes Joe Biden will win the election in a landslide.

The Australian-born billionaire is disgusted by Trump’s handling of COVID-19, remarking that the president is his own worst enemy, that he is not listening to advice about how best to handle the pandemic, and that he’s creating a never-ending crisis for his administration, according to three people who have spoken with Murdoch.

In response to an email inquiry for this report asking him if he believes Biden will win in a landslide and his thoughts on Trump’s handling of coronavirus, Murdoch responded, “No comment except I’ve never called Trump an idiot,” referring to a 2018 report that the media mogul called the president a “fucking idiot” following a chat about immigration.

While Murdoch believes the outcome of the election is a fait accompli, his New York tabloid has been doing everything in its power to help Trump’s re-election chances, publishing a screaming page 1 story on Wednesday under the headline, “Biden Secret E-Mails.” The supposed “smoking gun” emails purported to show that Hunter Biden had introduced his father to a Ukrainian businessman when he was vice president, though the Post relied on unverified documents given to them by Trump’s attorney Rudy Giuliani. (Biden’s team denies that such a meeting took place.)

xpost also the stuff on the laptop scared him so much that he turned it over to the FBI to get it out of his shop--but he made sure to make copies of emails and photos that he could give to Rudy's lawyer?

and I’m disgusted by Murdoch, so we’re all even.

Good Morning!

I can tell you one thing for sure about this otherwise bullshit laptop story: the computer repair shop in question is likely to quickly go out of business now that people have every reason to fear that they will eagerly comb through their files and make backup copies of their hard drives. So kudos on being a multilevel dipshit, there, John Paul Mac Isaac Peter Joe PC McGillicutty.

"I was only there to get directions on how to get away from there" - Seymour Skinner

Looks like my band is playing a (drive-in?) campaign event with Warren this weekend, she's hitting Madison and Milwaukee while Trump is at the Janesville regional airport.

Cool! Wear layers.

“I just don't know what to say, or what I'm allowed to say,” Isaac said. “I know that I saw, I saw stuff. And I was concerned. I was concerned that somebody might want to come looking for this stuff eventually and I wanted it out of my shop.”

Reminds me a little of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy9Z-Tg6ufU

lol

The defunct Trump Plaza in Atlantic City is currently wrapped in black netting to keep people nearby from getting hurt by random pieces of its eroding facade.
It will be imploded altogether in January. pic.twitter.com/tpu4Pbf05p

— Amy S. Rosenberg (@amysrosenberg) October 15, 2020

I know that I saw, I saw stuff.

Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion?

The defunct Trump Plaza in Atlantic City is currently wrapped in black netting to keep people nearby from getting hurt by random pieces of its eroding facade.
It will be imploded altogether in January.

Again, I say: somebody call the writers and tell them their metaphors are getting way too heavy-handed this season.

What was the total number of votes cast in 2016?

135 million, more or less; almost 48 million of those were early. So we're well over the 10% mark of the total 2016 vote count at this point, as well as one-third of the overall early vote count. The overall electorate being around 200 million as earlier mentioned, we still haven't breached 10% of that but it's rapidly approaching.

For instance, 1 in 5 who have already voted by mail did not vote in 2016 — a key indicator of enthusiasm, several Democratic strategists said.

Again, not to be a wet blanket, for this to cheer me I would need to know what proportion of voters in a given presidential year didn't vote in the previous presidential election. Is it a lot less than 1 in 5? (Maybe!)

A couple of people in Harris's "orbit" have tested positive.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/15/politics/kamala-harris-campaign-travel-coronavirus/index.html

Whatever the worst possible way to respond to that is, Trump will figure it out.

A Lincoln Project guy being quoted but this is a salient enough point:

"Their campaign has been touting for many, many months that their enthusiasm among Trump supporters is off the charts. You can't have both enthusiasm off the charts and a shy voter issue at the same time. It just doesn't make sense." -@madrid_mike on shy Trump voters @MSNBC

— Stephanie Ruhle (@SRuhle) October 15, 2020

Whatever the worst possible way to respond to that is, Trump will figure it out.

"I'll give you my spare Regenererereon if you drop out!"

It's an enthusiasm that dares not speak its name

Again, not to be a wet blanket, for this to cheer me I would need to know what proportion of voters in a given presidential year didn't vote in the previous presidential election. Is it a lot less than 1 in 5? (Maybe!)

i really need to start that "use this thread when you want someone else to google it for you" thread, for real. sometimes i'm happy to do it (like now!) and other times i want someone else to do it.

10% of voters in 2016 were first-time voters, according to CNN exit polls, but 15% according to the reuters exit poll. reuters had 9% first-time voters for the 2012 election.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oHgs-fZWks

but i take your point: the journalist should have included those details in the article in the first place, because they are important context.

does "did not vote in 2016" mean didn't bother to vote or were too young to vote?