"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Interestingly, Florida is the overall early vote leader in terms of numbers, at a little under 2 million. Michigan, California and New Jersey are next after that with numbers in the low 1 to 1.2 million.

A reminder, though, that early voting starts next week in the State with the Prettiest Name, and we're apt to see GOP turnout perhaps match Dem.

Delaware?

Idaho?

Guam, obviously.

(Early voting total in 2016 was 47 million, as I might have mentioned upthread somewhere. The question is not whether early voting this year will top that -- that was always in the cards thanks to the switch to remote voting due to COVID -- but by how much. If, as is possible, the numbers increase by 5 million every two days, as seems to be happening here -- if it breaks 15 million by tonight then that will compare to being over 10 million on Monday evening -- then possibly we're talking 60 million by election day itself, being conservative -- well over a fourth and approaching almost a third of the total electorate, regardless if they vote or not. How much of that amount will be as a percentage in terms of the actual total voters we won't know until it's over.)

If Biden wins, Puerto Rico.

I like a nice rich port.

replace star spangled banner with

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2QShLN_lSY

early voting on its own tells you that turnout is going to be high. it doesn't tell you anything about who is going to win the election when all the votes are in.

I thought everyone, including Republicans, were in agreement that higher turnout is bad for Republicans.

generally speaking yes but all bets are off this year because covid. so i'm taking high early voting as a very encouraging sign about turnout (because turnout is good for society, not because it increases the likelihood democrat wins).

https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/rortbwrxw0ml_0q8oiycxg.png

Yeah, I thought it was also common knowledge that Trump won in 2016 largely because so many people (read: largely democrats) abstained from voting?

i mean it's *probably* good news for the democrats, yes. i just think polls and even dubious statistical models derived from polls tell you more than comparing the early vote (even early vote by party registration) to 2016.

I sent my ballot on 1st October via the drop box at the US Embassy in London and it hasn’t been recorded as received in MN yet.

At any rate, I'm just preparing myself for another 4+ years of unadulterated Hellworld and will allow myself a little relief once that's no longer a clear + present concern.

it's kind of crazy how effective ActBlue is...first time I donated this year was back in July to Omar ($25) because I was getting so many fucking fliers in the mail for that Manchurian candidate lawyer dude outside money was funding in Minneapolis

but then I get these little update - Biden is behind, help Jaimie Harrison defeat Graham, etc etc, just little five, ten dollar things, even as low as some $4 donation match promo for Ed Markey, anyway I just these little things when I got panicked, and I looked at my gmail receipts and it's now $105 dollars since July, by far the most I've ever donated...it's crazy how even when you know it's just email marketing tactics it can still work

no wonder mcconnell was complaining about small donors

Charlie Kirk is like the perfect idiot surrogate son/grandson for all these MAGA boomers whose actual children have cut off contact with them.

he definitely has a creepy "old person's idea of a young person" vibe

So a guy gives a repair shop a laptop and hard drive and the shop owner doesn’t know who the guy is and copies the hard drive which has criminal Hunter Biden emails and #Bannon hears about it and the owner gives it to #Rudy who gives it to the #NYPost. ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?

— howardfineman (@howardfineman) October 14, 2020

gesundheit

sounds like the beginning of a priest/rabbi joek

the iconic Dead Laptop Sketch

Spectacles testicles wallet cigars camera tv laptop

Why do GOP schemes always feel like something that might've featured in an especially sinister episode of Three's Company? Such dopey bumblefuckery.

Drudge has a link to the NY Post story down below about 35 other links. Though I'm sure it's going to be amplified by Don

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d3/f9/34/d3f934a0c41b0d4aa6cddf6875dcf1de.jpg

this laptop story sounds like a giant vat of horse piss and I expect it will go away by the end of the week.

Probably but Twitter doing their best to make sure it stays in the news. This move means that the mainstream press basically has to cover the controversy which is as good as covering the substance of the story given the goals of the GOP

hard to imagine a better gift to the trump campaign and the entire GOP than this decision by twitter https://t.co/IHF0DjsXIY

— Sam Biddle (@samfbiddle) October 14, 2020

https://www.vox.com/2020/10/14/21515776/hunter-biden-emails-giuliani

at this point even if the emails were true there are millions of people who are thinking "well, other guy's a criminal too and he's getting us all killed, Biden it is"....

Is Rudy still alive?

Well, he's semi-animate. 'Alive' might be a stretch.

i can't remember who posted it but it was some tweet about how the trump campaign is too extremely online in the right wing sphere that they can't get that no one understands or gives a fuck about any of the weird conspiracy theories they are obsessed with

Trump himself gets them filtered through Fox News, but one hopes he still overestimates the amount of the channel that anyone else his age watches

obv doesn’t really cover it. at the end of the day it all comes down to jerking off the richest and most powerful

The most bemusing thing is that Pelosi is personally worth $120 million, and Feinstein worth $87 million. Imagine having that much money and asking for small donations from the people you're claiming "to feed," while jerking off the even more rich and powerful


(their husbands are both venture capitalists, if anyone has some open mic gear lying fallow during lockdown)

'Oh Burisma you say, sounds intersting, btw I'VE BEEN UNEMPLOYED FOR SIX MONTHS SO HOW ABOUT THAT'

But sic, Nancy needs our help!

also on that story: why are there always 'emails on a computer' in these cases? Emails almost always also reside on email servers; this is true of google-hosted emails, exchange servers, etc. They always make it sound like there are loose 'email documents' laying around on the file system. Which, maybe. But that is kid of stupid.

I have 25 years of archived email on my laptop - I assume this is what all normal people do and not some weirdo nerd trait

https://media.giphy.com/media/l0GRjnUxOVbmnc0uI/giphy.gif

struggling to understand how HB getting a guy he worked for/with a meeting with his dad is a bigger scandal than every fucking thing Trump has done every day of his life

Trump's kids literally run the government.

I'm just not gonna read up on it and when conservatives ask me what I think about it I'm going to (realistically) say "idk what you're talking about". not even worth discussing

I will never understand leadership Dems and their sclerotic deathgrip on power. the GOP honestly is just better at focusing on and delivering their longterm goals, recognizing their project is bigger than their dopey personal brand or whatever the fuck.

They have goals and a project, Democrats think it's noble enough to aspire to be administrative bureaucrats of the empire.

second the people above that it's a bad look for facebook and twitter to try to censor this story, Streisand effect and all

feels like a slight atmosphere shift. i bet trump's numbers improve in the next week. death cult energy trying to claw its way back.

people should read the story and realize 1.) the emails are probably real, but they were obtained through hacking and 2.) it's not a big deal compared to the nepotism and corruption of the trump administration

the story doesn't even remotely say the emails are probably real

unless you read the Post scoop, which I refuse to do, because they're a tabloid.

there is a ton of legit sketchiness to this story that if the shoes were on the other feet, a bunch of us would be saying the evidence was a little too "on the nose".