"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

There is no way he can spend the money people are donating right now. There will be money left over.

I guess I could have googled the answer: https://theconversation.com/when-presidential-campaigns-end-what-happens-to-the-leftover-money-130042 (I don’t think losing senate campaigns are different to suspended presidential primary campaigns for the purposes of what you can legally do with the money)

I mean, hypothetically he absolutely could spend all the money. Like, literally buying every TV ad, or every page of the newspaper or some shit. But it would be better spent in neighboring states or something, if he's allowed to do that.

He is absolutely allowed to do that. But he would be better advised spending it all on winning his race. The whole point of the enterprise is to get him elected.

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's final polling average was Clinton 45.7%, Trump 41.8%. Today, it's Biden 52.2%, Trump 41.9%.

But beyond deficit, even more damning for Trump is the 5.9% undecided/3rd party share - less than half of 12.5% share four years ago. Far fewer late deciders. https://t.co/4dfaurPIKd

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 11, 2020

This is one way Harrison is spending his money: a ratfucking ad to drive graham voters to the right wing third party candidate. I like it.

A digital ad I just got for #SCSen

Peep the funder 👀 pic.twitter.com/LvKNUMP1jo

— Patrick Sheridan (@Patriot_Pat1) October 11, 2020

Heh, clever.

I will not get complacent but I would be fucking stunned if the undecideds break for Trump again

i already voted but still am trying not to be complacent. but it looks good for biden.

wonder who's got Ken Bone's vote this time around...

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's final polling average was Clinton 45.7%, Trump 41.8%. Today, it's Biden 52.2%, Trump 41.9%.

That is heartening, of course. A decent counter to "bUt ThE pOllS wErE WrOng lAsT tIme" doomsaying.

But it's also key to point out that many hundreds of thousands more people have already voted (vs. 2016) and so can't "break toward Trump" even if they wanted to.

Bone came out and said he voted Trump because Bidenbros are mean, I think?

He said he was voting Jo Jourgenson, I think?

Ken Boneo, our nation turns its lonely eyes to you

Actually no, he's irrelevant now and the less we talk about him the better

Thxbye

he had an unsavory reddit comment history or something, i think

And another difference between 2016 and now to keep in mind is the huge surge in absentee voting, and what I presume will be a surge in early voting too. Election Day isn't in three weeks, it's already started. I'm going to go early vote on Wednesday. There's not a lot of time for those polls to move around.

Tipsy otm - Joe Biden could cook and eat a baby on Fifth Avenue on Nov. 2 and the election result would be mor eor less that same

But could he shoot that baby?

Are there any states that are counting the votes as they come in?

I'm not sure any are allowed to do that, are they? They can literally count the number of votes, but I thought no one opens them for results until after the election. Because opening them early would, well, open things up to tomfoolery. But I could be wrong!

Right that makes sense

i think some states (the good ones?) start counting 'early' or as soon as in person voting begins idk I could look this up but am too lazy

Are there any states that are counting the votes as they come in?

Short answer: yes.

Long answer: I recently listened to half an hour of a reporter on the radio trying to explain the variations in election law in all 50 states, D.C. and several US territories concerning absentee voting and vote-by-mail in general. Plus all the 100+ law suits already filed challenging those laws.

There's no way on earth that US voters will understand what is happening on election night unless there is a tsunami of Biden votes already coming in and it's impossible to deny his victory. Even then, if the Republicans want to bet the farm on contesting the results by going to court in dozens of states, they can still cause massive disruption of the process if the judges choose to play along with their game.

Ugh

I don’t think any networks will call the result on election night but they might call Florida that night (which despite all the disenfranchisement stuff shouldn’t have postal count delays like the states that are new to mass early voting). if they call Florida for Biden we’ll have a very good idea what’s happening.

I'm voting in person on election day. I know many of the people where I live will do the same.

Florida's already counting ballots. Mine got counted on Wednesday, two days after receipt.

Apparently the Dems -- at last! after 2000! -- have an army of lawyers in most major states ready to handle legal challenges.

They should get more and, um, arm them.

I hope I excite no one:

(CNN)Former Vice President Joe Biden is dominating President Donald Trump in the latest polls. No, the election is not over yet, and Trump still has a non-negligible chance of winning.

But a look through history reveals that Biden is in a better position at this point than any challenger since 1936, when the first scientific polls were taken in a presidential race.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Sunday was the latest poll to indicate Biden's strength. Biden led Trump by a 55% to 43% margin among likely voters. The poll was the third high quality national poll published this week that had Biden up by at least 10 points and above 50%. The other two being from CNN/SSRS and Fox News.

Indeed, the average of polls has Biden at around 52% or 53% and up by somewhere between 10 and 11 points. This is an unprecedented position for a challenger with a mere 23 days to go until Election Day.

That comparison of 2016 final polling average to today’s polling average is kind of disingenuous, because if you compare today’s polling average to mid October 2016 they’re very similar. Then Clinton fucking nose dived. polls can change crazy fast, and there are definitely some wild October surprise rat fuckings being cooked up

Uh...no?

Biden's ahead of Clinon nationally and, more importantly, in battleground states by more consistent numbers.

Clinton was up like 7 in mid october and 3.5 by election day. I mean, you're right that 10 is more than 7, good job

And also, hundreds of thousands of votes have already been cast, way more than any previous election.

You can't October-surprise someone out of a vote he or she has already cast.

I think it's good for us to treat this as though another 2016 **could** happen, but there are some major differences right now

1) # of undecideds are much lower - a 53-42 lead is much more comfortable than a 47-36 lead. 538 was very loud about 2016 being hard to predict because both candidates had sky-high unfavorables.

2) undecideds tend to break towards the party not in power. a vast majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track right now.

3) mail in voting is way, way up. people have been voting for weeks now. every day that passes without a major polling shift is gonna make it that much harder for Trump to regain ground.

4) we are in the middle of a pandemic and there is really nothing that Biden could do that would overshadow 210,000 dead Americans and a fucking OUTBREAK IN THE WHITE HOUSE. I do not see the media giving any serious attention to anything involving Hunter or Burisma.

this probably sounds morbid or pessimistic but unless someone else dies I think the perception is that the outbreak in the white house is over

doesn't matter

if he collapses on his Never Ending Tour it will turn not a single one of his deplorables but may keep turning seniors against him. That's what matters.

I know I'm coasting on a Biden-Harris caravan today -- my first for any candidate, well, ever -- and having my mail-in ballot get officially counted the other day, none of which means Dropping My Guard or anything. I phone bank on Wednesday.

Biden is really liked in a way that Clinton was not. It's not fair and she didn't deserve that at all, she should have won and our country would have been so much better off for it

He is likable though, and I think he will win

I phone bank on Wednesday.

As an Oregonian (whose state is a lock for both Biden/Harris and a strong Democratic ticket in all state races) I thank you, even though I know it is essentially out of self-defense, not altruism. We all need Florida to deliver its rebuke along with the rest of the nation.

Everyone who thinks Biden is likable should be forced to watch a simulation of their children or loved ones' children getting blown up by a drone.

The president under whom he served signed those orders, but, yes, I don't understand likability arguments for any president. Then again, I'm not the senior or suburbanite whom the campaign wants to attract.

Biden is really liked in a way that Clinton was not.

Biden’s approval/poz vibes are still below 50% per the Cook Political Report. Which is to say he’s not really liked, he’s just not hated like Clinton (or Trump). There’s a pretty big difference.

(And it means that he’s going to have to be the chosen one in the first 4 months of 2021 or people will turn on him.)

from Gallup two days ago: "Among eight character dimensions, Americans' perceptions of President Donald Trump and Joe Biden differ most on likability: 66% of U.S. adults believe Biden is likable, while 36% say Trump is. Americans are also more likely to perceive Biden than Trump as being honest and trustworthy and as caring about the needs of people like them. Trump surpasses Biden only when it comes to being a strong and decisive leader."

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321695/americans-view-biden-likable-honest-trump-strong.aspx

Cook’s reference to a WSJ poll this week -

Looking at it from a third angle, the poll also asked respondents how positive their feelings were toward Trump. Thirty-nine percent reported positive feelings, 5 percent were neutral, and 55 percent felt negative feelings. By comparison, Joe Biden was 43 percent positive, 16 percent neutral, and 41 percent negative. Regarding the debate—if that is what it was—49 percent said Biden did a better job; 24 percent thought Trump did.

Everyone who thinks Biden is likable should be forced to watch Anita Hill's testimony in full and read every Thomas commentary issued on SC judgements since then

(and watch hours of footage of him rubbing against and sniffing women in public)

Trump surpasses Biden only when it comes to being a strong and decisive leader.

Sure thing. If "decisive" doesn't require making good decisions and "strong" only means truculent.