"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

From a Politico piece that's half decent, half idiotic (I mean, it's Politico):

2. The “silent majority” in this election is not who you think it is.
People who love the president are vocal about it. People who hate the president are vocal about it. The polarization on display this election cycle is the most palpable, the most visible, of our lifetimes. People wave flags from their porches and wear shirts to the grocery store and turn out by thousands to rallies and marches. I don’t believe there is a “silent majority”—that is, a group whose views are kept quiet—for either Trump or Biden.

I do believe, however, there is a silent majority against Trump. In my travels, this group could be considered “the kid curmudgeons.” They are younger Gen Xers and older millennials: college-educated folks ages roughly 28 to 42, who are not ideological, who are not partisan, who consume little political news, who rarely if ever vote, but who might flood the polls this fall simply because Donald Trump annoys them.

Is that overly simplistic? Perhaps. But I’ve been stunned at how many people I’ve encountered who fit this description. They’re establishing careers, starting families, buying first homes—building a life—and don’t really have the time or inclination to get engaged politically. They don’t know a ton about either party’s policy platform or legislative record. What they do know is Trump irritates them to no end. He reminds them of the lightweight underclassmen at a college kegger; his raucousness was entertaining at first, but the act has worn awfully thin. They just want to get rid of him and get on with the party.

...

4. Trump might lose women voters by numbers we’ve never imagined.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The president has a problem with female voters. Yes, this has been observed by every pollster, every political professional, in both parties over the past four years. Trump has been briefed on it—time and again—by his team, who warned him that the 2018 Democratic wave could repeat itself without a course correction. But what we’re seeing now, in polling conducted by both parties, isn’t a wave. It isn’t even a tsunami. It’s something we don’t have a name for, because we’ve never seen anything like it. The president’s standing with women voters of every race, every educational background, every socioeconomic stratum, has fallen off. But when it comes to the white, college-educated women who made up a sizable chunk of Trump’s base—he won 44 percent of them against Hillary Clinton—his numbers have collapsed entirely.

The president, seeing ominous signs of this earlier in the year, sought to scare these voters back into his camp, warning of an assault on the suburbs and violence visiting their families and communities. But this tactic appears to have backfired. Recent internal polling from Republicans and Democrats alike suggests that Trump’s law-and-order messaging alienated far more women than it attracted.

This isn’t just a problem for Trump in purple states. Last week, I heard from one of the smartest Republicans alive, a longtime party operator who lives in a state Trump carried by double digits. He told me the polling he was seeing there was something out of a nightmare; these were numbers he never expected to see in his lifetime. The only thing more dizzying than that? I had another conversation, with another dependable red-state Republican, the very next day, and heard the very same thing. Both of these men were sounding the alarm, alerting me that Trump could actually lose their states, and would at the very least drag down a number of down-ballot Republicans, because women have turned on the GOP at a historic clip. Trump lost women by 13 points to Clinton, according to exit polls, and Republicans have long worried that the figure could climb into the high teens. There is now genuine worry that the margin could explode north of 20 points—the biggest gender gap in modern election history.

also, i know no one likes to think about it, but another 1.2M covid cases are coming in the next month (40K/day * about 30 days), and it's supposed to get worse with cold weather, not better, and with interactions from flu season. that, alone, would be enough to sink an incumbent in any other timeline, alas

I almost quoted the non-stupid parts a couple hours ago.

re: women voters hating trump, it would be a very good thing to connect the GOP as much as possible to trump. trump will, hopefully, go away in a few months. the rest of the handmaid's tale GOP posse will still be there, and they aided and abetted him almost the entire way (after cowardly submitting to him in 2016).

Last week, I heard from one of the smartest Republicans alive

Dwayne Johnson?

last night I dreamt that one of the smartest Republicans alive loved me

Some polls are bigger than others

The first of the gang to die?

Donald, it was really nothing!

(5/9) Another issue, explained by the Trump tax representative: “There have been a multitude of charities who throw annual events at the property, and they have canceled, because, they say, ‘We can’t, in good conscience, be associated with this name.’” pic.twitter.com/NxD9yVKTnf

— Dan Alexander (@DanAlexander21) October 6, 2020

Sorry, start of the thread here:

(1/9) When Donald Trump became the president of the United States, his brand got bigger, but it didn’t get better. Just take a look at what happened to Trump National Doral, his golf resort in Miami. https://t.co/FR7lMlA2lP

— Dan Alexander (@DanAlexander21) October 6, 2020

Last night I dreamt I went to Mar-a-Lago again
“You thought I loved Donald? I hated him!”

SurveyUSA is Biden+10, but notes they had Biden+16 in interviews after the president was hospitalized https://t.co/912PsXzd4c

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 6, 2020

When voters are asked whether, financially, they are falling behind, just getting by, making ends meet, setting aside some for a rainy day, or prospering, Trump leads only among those who are prospering. Biden leads among all other groups. When voters are asked whether they identify as poor, working class, middle class, upper-middle class or rich, Trump leads only among those who are rich or upper-middle class. Among the 82% of voters who are not rich, Biden leads in double digits.

lol that CNN 57/41 poll is within the margin of error of 1984's 58.8/40.6 result

Number 2 from that Politico article - "The “silent majority” in this election is not who you think it is." - seems very otm to me. important to remember that in 2016, for those who did not give a shit about politics, Trump was still more amusing than annoying. there was still stuff like "Can't Stump The Trump" floating around where people marveled at his ability to weasel out of every question. or the "because you'd be in jail" moment at the debate. this was when people who voted for Trump passed along Vic Berger videos not getting that he was making fun of him. these people aren't really attached to Trump, they found him funny and conversely thought Hillary was one of the most boring/unlikeable people on Earth. I know some people like that and maybe they're not all voting Biden but they are all fucking sick of him and actively spreading the plague isn't gonna win any of those people back. even the most conservative guy I call a friend says "I just want things to go back to normal" (he's just not voting, the prick)

so yes as shellshocked as I still am from 2016 I do think there's the possibility this becomes a historic blowout

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who tested positive last week, said in an interview with a conservative talk-show host that there is “a level of unjustifiable hysteria” about a virus that has killed nearly 210,000 Americans and asked, “Why do we think we actually can stop the progression of a contagious disease?”

excuse me for a second.

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

i want to be there in person, to point my finger and say "LISTEN HERE, YOU STUPID FUCK", etc and really show him

You'd throw a rock at him but it would just be adding to the pile knocking around his skull

even the most conservative guy I call a friend says "I just want things to go back to normal" (he's just not voting, the prick)

I mean I understand wanting the total run up even more but I'll take this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/02/trump-coronavirus-test-unlikely-to-prompt-sympathy-vote-analyst-says.html

considering the story on every non-explicitly fascist network is "Trump is personally and recklessly spreading the disease he inexcusably decided to expose himself to" yeah I'd say that's about right

You’re obviously letting it dominate your life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDzB-Eu8YeQ

if he had played it like a person with a normal brain he definitly could have gotten a sympathy bounce.

but then we wouldn't be here in the first place...ffs! I'm so tired of this shit

And not "I probably got this from a soldier who tried to kiss me, not sure why everyone thinks it's such a big deal, just take these fancy unapproved drugs that I got!"

Sure, but his presidency is all about performing experiments and seeing where it takes you. Very stable genius indeed.

xps

This made me laugh.

My glorious AF wife Kathryn helped with my latest campaign video. Whatever the polls say we have to stay calm and resolute in this fight, giving whatever time, money and power we can. Get active to get out the vote TODAY. https://t.co/JMq7rJIXuE #GOTV #createtheoutcome #VOTE pic.twitter.com/5K7DHjkWFo

— Mandy Patinkin (@PatinkinMandy) October 6, 2020

When voters are asked whether, financially, they are falling behind, just getting by, making ends meet, setting aside some for a rainy day, or prospering, Trump leads only among those who are prospering. Biden leads among all other groups. When voters are asked whether they identify as poor, working class, middle class, upper-middle class or rich, Trump leads only among those who are rich or upper-middle class. Among the 82% of voters who are not rich, Biden leads in double digits.

As much as I'd like to believe this, after driving through the upper peninsula of Michigan and northern Wisconsin a couple weeks ago, my unscientific observation was that it was all Trump signs except for the nice houses on lakefronts, or the nice houses when passing through slightly larger towns. Those were the only Bidens I saw.

We were driving through southern Vermont and found the same but unless a massive massive Vermont-sized upset is coming, road signs are just a bad indicator.

I heard something about how Trump signs are in ready free supply in a way the Biden campaign has not generally prioritised.

in rural PA I'm still seeing a lot of Biden signs, but the Trump signs are much BIGGER

If you thought Tombot was mad before...

When voters are asked whether they identify as poor, working class, middle class, upper-middle class or rich, Trump leads only among those who are rich or upper-middle class.

There are a lot of old angry racist white yoopers who would rather be broke and live shitty lives than to think they're getting any sort of free help. Personally I was really surprised at the number of biden signs I saw in the UP compared to any previous election

Also of note is that there are like twice as many people within a half an hour of me as there are in the entire UP and I'm not in either of the big michigan metro areas

Our neighbors across the street are seemingly decent old farts but they had Trump signs in their yard for a while.

The day after the debate the signs were gone.

My parents have had their Biden signs stolen three times. They’re putting up some kind of netting/fencing like you might do with animals. Not sure how anyone’s going to see their signs now, of course..

yeah there are a number of people with Trump signs in my neighborhood including one person with 4 flags including one where Trump is photoshopped onto Rambo's body

I'm sure we've gone over this before but proudly displaying your allegiance to a political party/candidate is way more a GOP/Trump thing than the Dems, especially with a Wonder Bread candidate like Joe Biden. like its all about making people mad, that's it. if your $200 giant sign makes one liberal mad it's money well spent.

I agree covid is bad, but it's gender reveal parties that really scare me.

Signs outside the White House currently: pic.twitter.com/z04YvWwA2Z

— 𓂀 (@groovyambs) October 5, 2020

no doubt there was originally some good intention behind these signs but, uh, sing Breonna Taylor's name in the Trump font is really gross to me

"I just want things to go back to normal"

This is the silent majority right here, imo. I live in a very politically active, politically motivated Dem hotbed, and while I don't see too many signs, either, but I think it has everything to do with everyone being so tired of this shit they don't even need to make their allegiances known. They're just waiting out the clock, like we all are.

also can I point out that only idiots on the right think yard signs are the real indicator, hence why they keep putting cameras and alarms outside them despite the fact that Biden signs are generally the ones being stolen

"I just want things to go back to normal"

tbc these people are also idiots, albeit understandable ones

Meanwhile, back on earth again...

U.S. trade deficit jumps to largest in 14 years in August
(Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit surged in August to the largest in 14 years with imports climbing again, suggesting that trade could be a drag on economic growth in the third quarter.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the trade deficit jumped 5.9% to $67.1 billion, the widest since August 2006...

1234 let's have a tariff war! Will the Trump faithful even hear this news?

he just tweeted that he's called off stimulus negotations until after he wins the election, which seems like a dumb move electorally but also means that no one will get any federal relief until january, which is terrible.

Try spotting the moment where Trump just killed the stimulus https://t.co/M2O6hvFfl7 pic.twitter.com/BiVaOjFzi1

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) October 6, 2020

jesus fucking christ