"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

New Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania, trend from August:

Biden: 54% (+5)
Trump: 42% (-3)https://t.co/caIwTDRLho

— Dave Weigel, Re-Animator (@daveweigel) October 6, 2020

The fact that voting is underway has got to be a part of the idiot president’s current rona theatrics no? His loser polling isn’t just anticipating Election Day in November but reflects current voting.

Polling station closures in TX started well before things started to go really sideways with the election. Removing all but one ballot drop box in Houston and other cities is a different story though.

Rudy has the same problem as Trump, in that he seems unhealthy in the best of circumstances, but has he announced the results of his covid test? I'd be OK with him dying (again).

So I know there are more competitive senate races than expected, but I'm wondering how voters that are flipping from Trump to Biden will play into this. Will they also flip senate votes or is vote splitting the more likely outcome?

― Mr. Cacciatore (Moodles), Tuesday, October 6, 2020 9:50 AM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

There are only two states that are safe blue states on the presidential level that also have Republican senators up for reelection: Maine (Collins) and Colorado (Gardner). Based on polling, there's a very good chance that those Senate seats will be flipped.

I'd say there are four swing states with Republican senators up for reelection: Arizona (McSally), North Carolina (Tillis), Iowa (Ernst), and Georgia (Loeffler and Perdue). And I think their chances of reelection are probably proportional to the chances that those states go for Trump. (Basically, in reverse order of how I've listed them.)

I'm sure there will be some ticket-splitting, but I don't think it will have a significant effect.

"so have we talked about Thom Tillis being a no-show yet?"

what did he not show up at? I did see he now says he's free of symptoms.

"sure, in 1918, read one history book" I meant in recent history you deflated turd

xxp My guess is that moderate Democratic-leaning voters in the suburbs who may once have been content to vote for a moderate Republican once in a while are no longer as willing to do so.

xxp I thought I heard something on Democracy now with the challenger saying Tillis has not been responding? would love some clarification on that if available.

When they’re all like this at some point we have to stop calling these polls outliers

Texas has high stakes state elections as well, so local gop shenanigans are likely and not necessarily a sign that the presidential election is close. I mean it probably is. But state politics there are a cesspool and there’s a lot going on there this year.

Texas is not going to flip for Biden.

Will they also flip senate votes or is vote splitting the more likely outcome?

The Texas senate race has Cornyn (Republican) about +7 in recent polls while Trump is only +2... and Texas eliminated straight-ticket voting this year. It looks like Trump hatred won't be enough to flip the Texas senate race blue, but if there's a real blue wave it's possible.

Correct, the polling closures have a lot to do with what's going on at the state level and is part of the overall package of gerrymandering and disenfranchisement.

xxp

I think we’re starting to see trump do stuff because he enjoys it even though he knows it’s electorally counterproductive for him (down by 25 points with seniors!) and brutal for the entire GOP ticket (not just the senate races), which depends on a tenable presidential candidate.

By all means run up the score in the electoral college but there’s dozens of local elections I’d trade for an extra 100 ec votes.

this seems crazy to contemplate, but there's also the possibility that trump will mess up even MORE in the coming weeks. how? who the fuck knows. the man surprises me every week with how poor his judgment is. but i wouldn't bet against it

Texas GOP is most scared about losing more judges and congressional seats, and they're also trying to regain ground in both these areas lost in '18. I swear, every other commercial I see on network TV is either an official ad or PAC dispatch for District 7, which flipped D last time, and they want it back BAD.

By all means run up the score in the electoral college but there’s dozens of local elections I’d trade for an extra 100 ec votes.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, October 6, 2020 10:37 AM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i feel like a huge electoral college/popular vote win would only have a positive effect on downballot local elections?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-early-vote-idUSKBN26R1LR

If turnout is very high, which is what early voting numbers suggest it will be (and not just people voting early/by mail to avoid exposure to COVID) then Republicans are going to get crushed at every level.

certainly. my point is that even if, e.g. texas's EC votes are out of reach, then every trump fuckup is still good news for the many elections that have the potential to change more people's lives for the better.

(xp)

three of these people were 2020 presidential candidates and one of them is a stock image pic.twitter.com/sEXIyjDV6y

— Tossup Bot (@TossupBot) October 6, 2020

I only recognize Swalwell there.

By all means run up the score in the electoral college but there’s dozens of local elections I’d trade for an extra 100 ec votes.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, October 6, 2020 11

Let me introduce the boar to MDC's mayoral race, for the first time in memory a nonpartisan-in-name-only race in which the GOP candidate Steve Bovo has explicitly campaigned as the "conservative candidate" (I quote from the literature), posts photos of himself and Trump....and is down 10 points as of today. The state Dem party, wisely, said, "Oh, you wanna play this game?" and put its weight behind Danielle Cava.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article246231935.html

*board

this seems crazy to contemplate, but there's also the possibility that trump will mess up even MORE in the coming weeks. how? who the fuck knows. the man surprises me every week with how poor his judgment is. but i wouldn't bet against it

idk if you're being sarcastic here but he's put himself in such an idiotic no-win situation right now and I cannot see how his numbers could possibly improve within 4-5 weeks

he could die

Betting on the 2000 Missouri Senate race strategy?

Welcome President Melania.

you picture a campaign meeting where they're like "does ANYONE have any ideas to turn this thing around?" and Pence slowly raises his hand

xp not being sarcastic!

it seems like he couldn't possibly shoot himself in the foot more, but i thought the same thing just a couple weeks ago. he might actually make things even WORSE between now and election day. it almost seems likely - he's doubling down on the flu thing (again), he has a debate (a fucking _town hall_!) that's he pledged to attend, etc.

From a Politico piece that's half decent, half idiotic (I mean, it's Politico):

2. The “silent majority” in this election is not who you think it is.
People who love the president are vocal about it. People who hate the president are vocal about it. The polarization on display this election cycle is the most palpable, the most visible, of our lifetimes. People wave flags from their porches and wear shirts to the grocery store and turn out by thousands to rallies and marches. I don’t believe there is a “silent majority”—that is, a group whose views are kept quiet—for either Trump or Biden.

I do believe, however, there is a silent majority against Trump. In my travels, this group could be considered “the kid curmudgeons.” They are younger Gen Xers and older millennials: college-educated folks ages roughly 28 to 42, who are not ideological, who are not partisan, who consume little political news, who rarely if ever vote, but who might flood the polls this fall simply because Donald Trump annoys them.

Is that overly simplistic? Perhaps. But I’ve been stunned at how many people I’ve encountered who fit this description. They’re establishing careers, starting families, buying first homes—building a life—and don’t really have the time or inclination to get engaged politically. They don’t know a ton about either party’s policy platform or legislative record. What they do know is Trump irritates them to no end. He reminds them of the lightweight underclassmen at a college kegger; his raucousness was entertaining at first, but the act has worn awfully thin. They just want to get rid of him and get on with the party.

...

4. Trump might lose women voters by numbers we’ve never imagined.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The president has a problem with female voters. Yes, this has been observed by every pollster, every political professional, in both parties over the past four years. Trump has been briefed on it—time and again—by his team, who warned him that the 2018 Democratic wave could repeat itself without a course correction. But what we’re seeing now, in polling conducted by both parties, isn’t a wave. It isn’t even a tsunami. It’s something we don’t have a name for, because we’ve never seen anything like it. The president’s standing with women voters of every race, every educational background, every socioeconomic stratum, has fallen off. But when it comes to the white, college-educated women who made up a sizable chunk of Trump’s base—he won 44 percent of them against Hillary Clinton—his numbers have collapsed entirely.

The president, seeing ominous signs of this earlier in the year, sought to scare these voters back into his camp, warning of an assault on the suburbs and violence visiting their families and communities. But this tactic appears to have backfired. Recent internal polling from Republicans and Democrats alike suggests that Trump’s law-and-order messaging alienated far more women than it attracted.

This isn’t just a problem for Trump in purple states. Last week, I heard from one of the smartest Republicans alive, a longtime party operator who lives in a state Trump carried by double digits. He told me the polling he was seeing there was something out of a nightmare; these were numbers he never expected to see in his lifetime. The only thing more dizzying than that? I had another conversation, with another dependable red-state Republican, the very next day, and heard the very same thing. Both of these men were sounding the alarm, alerting me that Trump could actually lose their states, and would at the very least drag down a number of down-ballot Republicans, because women have turned on the GOP at a historic clip. Trump lost women by 13 points to Clinton, according to exit polls, and Republicans have long worried that the figure could climb into the high teens. There is now genuine worry that the margin could explode north of 20 points—the biggest gender gap in modern election history.

also, i know no one likes to think about it, but another 1.2M covid cases are coming in the next month (40K/day * about 30 days), and it's supposed to get worse with cold weather, not better, and with interactions from flu season. that, alone, would be enough to sink an incumbent in any other timeline, alas

I almost quoted the non-stupid parts a couple hours ago.

re: women voters hating trump, it would be a very good thing to connect the GOP as much as possible to trump. trump will, hopefully, go away in a few months. the rest of the handmaid's tale GOP posse will still be there, and they aided and abetted him almost the entire way (after cowardly submitting to him in 2016).

Last week, I heard from one of the smartest Republicans alive

Dwayne Johnson?

last night I dreamt that one of the smartest Republicans alive loved me

Some polls are bigger than others

The first of the gang to die?

Donald, it was really nothing!

(5/9) Another issue, explained by the Trump tax representative: “There have been a multitude of charities who throw annual events at the property, and they have canceled, because, they say, ‘We can’t, in good conscience, be associated with this name.’” pic.twitter.com/NxD9yVKTnf

— Dan Alexander (@DanAlexander21) October 6, 2020

Sorry, start of the thread here:

(1/9) When Donald Trump became the president of the United States, his brand got bigger, but it didn’t get better. Just take a look at what happened to Trump National Doral, his golf resort in Miami. https://t.co/FR7lMlA2lP

— Dan Alexander (@DanAlexander21) October 6, 2020

Last night I dreamt I went to Mar-a-Lago again
“You thought I loved Donald? I hated him!”

SurveyUSA is Biden+10, but notes they had Biden+16 in interviews after the president was hospitalized https://t.co/912PsXzd4c

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 6, 2020

When voters are asked whether, financially, they are falling behind, just getting by, making ends meet, setting aside some for a rainy day, or prospering, Trump leads only among those who are prospering. Biden leads among all other groups. When voters are asked whether they identify as poor, working class, middle class, upper-middle class or rich, Trump leads only among those who are rich or upper-middle class. Among the 82% of voters who are not rich, Biden leads in double digits.

lol that CNN 57/41 poll is within the margin of error of 1984's 58.8/40.6 result

Number 2 from that Politico article - "The “silent majority” in this election is not who you think it is." - seems very otm to me. important to remember that in 2016, for those who did not give a shit about politics, Trump was still more amusing than annoying. there was still stuff like "Can't Stump The Trump" floating around where people marveled at his ability to weasel out of every question. or the "because you'd be in jail" moment at the debate. this was when people who voted for Trump passed along Vic Berger videos not getting that he was making fun of him. these people aren't really attached to Trump, they found him funny and conversely thought Hillary was one of the most boring/unlikeable people on Earth. I know some people like that and maybe they're not all voting Biden but they are all fucking sick of him and actively spreading the plague isn't gonna win any of those people back. even the most conservative guy I call a friend says "I just want things to go back to normal" (he's just not voting, the prick)

so yes as shellshocked as I still am from 2016 I do think there's the possibility this becomes a historic blowout