"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Speaking of Conway

Kellyanne Conway on tiktok cussing her daughter OUT 😭😭🤣🤣😭😭😭😭 pic.twitter.com/iEuMySvRYB

— Esquiggle (@ToyaRochelle) October 6, 2020

https://twitter.com/ella_nilsen/status/131346768183687168

I don’t think “just post through it” works with this group.

Is it wrong to find this Claudia Conway stuff hilarious?

I mean it's definitely hilarious that a 15 year old girl has more information about the health of the President of the United States than 99.999% of the nation

An interesting thought (one I've had numerous times) from LGM:

_For marginal voters in particular, there may be particular value in being able to say honestly, in the future, “no of course I didn’t vote for Trump, are you kidding?” while tactfully omitting that you did in fact (vote) for him in 2016. But now he’s a loser with loser stench on him, and sick to boot. And another group of marginal Trump supporters may just be discouraged enough not to vote at all._

amazing how Trump is the one candidate in history who can get infected with a deadly disease right before the election and turn it into a political disaster on multiple fronts

_An interesting thought (one I've had numerous times) from LGM:

_For marginal voters in particular, there may be particular value in being able to say honestly, in the future, “no of course I didn’t vote for Trump, are you kidding?” while tactfully omitting that you did in fact (vote) for him in 2016. But now he’s a loser with loser stench on him, and sick to boot. And another group of marginal Trump supporters may just be discouraged enough not to vote at all.__


Yep. This is why “that won’t persuade a trump voter to switch to biden” is probably not relevant at this point.

do over 100k people in the US ever ever die from the flu? I don't think so.

it's not difficult information to find:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

"Between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010"

thanks for being my google, I am lazy and just woke up

I'll have more questions for you later

So I know there are more competitive senate races than expected, but I'm wondering how voters that are flipping from Trump to Biden will play into this. Will they also flip senate votes or is vote splitting the more likely outcome?

Hey Tracer - do you know where my grey socks are?

lol :)

If you look at the individual year breakdowns, COVID has currently killed about as many people in 9 months as the flu has killed in the last 4 years combined.

Of course it's not comparable, because there's a flu vaccine. Approx 80% of children who die of the flu aren't vaccinated. (No numbers exist for the adult population)

Also, don't forget that many radical leftists like Joe Biden would've done less than nothing and millions of people would've died, so really the number of lives saved is massive.

Ya know, a 16-point Biden lead nationally suddenly makes Georgia and Texas uh competitive.

do over 100k people in the US ever ever die from the flu? I don't think so.

sure, in 1918, read one history book

Ya know, a 16-point Biden lead nationally suddenly makes Georgia and Texas uh competitive.

There's not a 16-point Biden lead (but I do actually think Georgia and Texas are competitive)

#earlyvote updates in from AL, PA, and WI posted. Now at least 4.25 million people have voted in the 2020 general election https://t.co/s8K2xFDeSA

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) October 6, 2020

I do wonder whether we’d be seeing the same numbers with Bernie instead of Biden.

Just a thought experiment...

2xp

3xp rather.

xposts There are some estimates that the 1958 and 1968 flus took out 100k Americans, too.

According to the CDC, "During the 2019-2020 influenza season, CDC estimates that influenza was associated with 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths."

There's not a 16-point Biden lead (but I do actually think Georgia and Texas are competitive)

― Guayaquil (eephus!)

I refer to this: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/06/poll-biden-national-lead-election-day-426688

Cavils about the rationality of national polls implied.

Biden campaigning in Texas - or at least some well-placed ad buys - could spook Rs into feeling like they need to defend it, which could be strategically useful.

And as Beto and others have pointed out, Texas doesn't do mail voting and therefore we will know the winner on election night. If Texas were to flip there would be no way Trump can win, and it would avoid us weeks of nail-biting.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/10/04/joe-biden-win-texas/

Not sure I buy it but the prospect of knowing the winner faster is pretty tempting.

The closing of polling stations suggests Texas GOP has seen ominous numbers.

otm

New Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania, trend from August:

Biden: 54% (+5)
Trump: 42% (-3)https://t.co/caIwTDRLho

— Dave Weigel, Re-Animator (@daveweigel) October 6, 2020

The fact that voting is underway has got to be a part of the idiot president’s current rona theatrics no? His loser polling isn’t just anticipating Election Day in November but reflects current voting.

Polling station closures in TX started well before things started to go really sideways with the election. Removing all but one ballot drop box in Houston and other cities is a different story though.

Rudy has the same problem as Trump, in that he seems unhealthy in the best of circumstances, but has he announced the results of his covid test? I'd be OK with him dying (again).

So I know there are more competitive senate races than expected, but I'm wondering how voters that are flipping from Trump to Biden will play into this. Will they also flip senate votes or is vote splitting the more likely outcome?

― Mr. Cacciatore (Moodles), Tuesday, October 6, 2020 9:50 AM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

There are only two states that are safe blue states on the presidential level that also have Republican senators up for reelection: Maine (Collins) and Colorado (Gardner). Based on polling, there's a very good chance that those Senate seats will be flipped.

I'd say there are four swing states with Republican senators up for reelection: Arizona (McSally), North Carolina (Tillis), Iowa (Ernst), and Georgia (Loeffler and Perdue). And I think their chances of reelection are probably proportional to the chances that those states go for Trump. (Basically, in reverse order of how I've listed them.)

I'm sure there will be some ticket-splitting, but I don't think it will have a significant effect.

"so have we talked about Thom Tillis being a no-show yet?"

what did he not show up at? I did see he now says he's free of symptoms.

"sure, in 1918, read one history book" I meant in recent history you deflated turd

xxp My guess is that moderate Democratic-leaning voters in the suburbs who may once have been content to vote for a moderate Republican once in a while are no longer as willing to do so.

xxp I thought I heard something on Democracy now with the challenger saying Tillis has not been responding? would love some clarification on that if available.

When they’re all like this at some point we have to stop calling these polls outliers

Texas has high stakes state elections as well, so local gop shenanigans are likely and not necessarily a sign that the presidential election is close. I mean it probably is. But state politics there are a cesspool and there’s a lot going on there this year.

Texas is not going to flip for Biden.

Will they also flip senate votes or is vote splitting the more likely outcome?

The Texas senate race has Cornyn (Republican) about +7 in recent polls while Trump is only +2... and Texas eliminated straight-ticket voting this year. It looks like Trump hatred won't be enough to flip the Texas senate race blue, but if there's a real blue wave it's possible.

Correct, the polling closures have a lot to do with what's going on at the state level and is part of the overall package of gerrymandering and disenfranchisement.

xxp

I think we’re starting to see trump do stuff because he enjoys it even though he knows it’s electorally counterproductive for him (down by 25 points with seniors!) and brutal for the entire GOP ticket (not just the senate races), which depends on a tenable presidential candidate.

By all means run up the score in the electoral college but there’s dozens of local elections I’d trade for an extra 100 ec votes.

this seems crazy to contemplate, but there's also the possibility that trump will mess up even MORE in the coming weeks. how? who the fuck knows. the man surprises me every week with how poor his judgment is. but i wouldn't bet against it

Texas GOP is most scared about losing more judges and congressional seats, and they're also trying to regain ground in both these areas lost in '18. I swear, every other commercial I see on network TV is either an official ad or PAC dispatch for District 7, which flipped D last time, and they want it back BAD.

By all means run up the score in the electoral college but there’s dozens of local elections I’d trade for an extra 100 ec votes.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, October 6, 2020 10:37 AM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i feel like a huge electoral college/popular vote win would only have a positive effect on downballot local elections?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-early-vote-idUSKBN26R1LR

If turnout is very high, which is what early voting numbers suggest it will be (and not just people voting early/by mail to avoid exposure to COVID) then Republicans are going to get crushed at every level.

certainly. my point is that even if, e.g. texas's EC votes are out of reach, then every trump fuckup is still good news for the many elections that have the potential to change more people's lives for the better.

(xp)

three of these people were 2020 presidential candidates and one of them is a stock image pic.twitter.com/sEXIyjDV6y

— Tossup Bot (@TossupBot) October 6, 2020

I only recognize Swalwell there.