"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Dignity is a foreign country to Gaetz

(CNN)Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump has expanded and the former vice president now holds his widest lead of the cycle with less than a month remaining before Election Day, according to a new nationwide CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.

Among likely voters, 57% say they back Biden and 41% Trump in the poll that was conducted entirely after the first debate and mostly after the President's coronavirus infection was made public.

nobody likes a sick loser

The only rational explanation I can ascribe (a completely misguided attempt on my part, but) to his current behavior is that he strongly suspects that he's about to die and wants to burn down as much shit on the way out as he can.

The 30-35% who buy into it are what keeps me up at night.

He died for your sins.

Really, if it's all been about personal gain and building his brand and whatnot, dying in office a martyr could help boost the prospects of his family business. They would sell so many memorial plates.

I just imagined seeing one of those ads on the MeTV channel that shows Gunsmoke at noon, and man, I felt this wash of calm go over me.

Is it wrong to find this Claudia Conway stuff hilarious?
I think if it were any other parent I might feel a sliver of sympathy for having to deal with a such a bratty teenager, but it's really the lowest of karmic punishments for such an enabler of evil

wonder why it took so long honestly

I am loving Claudia Conway at the moment, yes

I did find it hilariously embarrassing to see that comedian on Twitter suggest Claudia, a minor, take advantage of her fame to start an OnlyFans account, then proceed to lecture the entire internet on how they don't understand comedy when he was, rightfully, called out for it,

yeah that was Neal Brennan, his reaction doesn't surprise me

An interesting thought (one I've had numerous times) from LGM:

For marginal voters in particular, there may be particular value in being able to say honestly, in the future, “no of course I didn’t vote for Trump, are you kidding?” while tactfully omitting that you did in fact (vote) for him in 2016. But now he’s a loser with loser stench on him, and sick to boot. And another group of marginal Trump supporters may just be discouraged enough not to vote at all.

Speaking of Conway

Kellyanne Conway on tiktok cussing her daughter OUT 😭😭🤣🤣😭😭😭😭 pic.twitter.com/iEuMySvRYB

— Esquiggle (@ToyaRochelle) October 6, 2020

https://twitter.com/ella_nilsen/status/131346768183687168

I don’t think “just post through it” works with this group.

Is it wrong to find this Claudia Conway stuff hilarious?

I mean it's definitely hilarious that a 15 year old girl has more information about the health of the President of the United States than 99.999% of the nation

An interesting thought (one I've had numerous times) from LGM:

_For marginal voters in particular, there may be particular value in being able to say honestly, in the future, “no of course I didn’t vote for Trump, are you kidding?” while tactfully omitting that you did in fact (vote) for him in 2016. But now he’s a loser with loser stench on him, and sick to boot. And another group of marginal Trump supporters may just be discouraged enough not to vote at all._

amazing how Trump is the one candidate in history who can get infected with a deadly disease right before the election and turn it into a political disaster on multiple fronts

_An interesting thought (one I've had numerous times) from LGM:

_For marginal voters in particular, there may be particular value in being able to say honestly, in the future, “no of course I didn’t vote for Trump, are you kidding?” while tactfully omitting that you did in fact (vote) for him in 2016. But now he’s a loser with loser stench on him, and sick to boot. And another group of marginal Trump supporters may just be discouraged enough not to vote at all.__


Yep. This is why “that won’t persuade a trump voter to switch to biden” is probably not relevant at this point.

do over 100k people in the US ever ever die from the flu? I don't think so.

it's not difficult information to find:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

"Between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010"

thanks for being my google, I am lazy and just woke up

I'll have more questions for you later

So I know there are more competitive senate races than expected, but I'm wondering how voters that are flipping from Trump to Biden will play into this. Will they also flip senate votes or is vote splitting the more likely outcome?

Hey Tracer - do you know where my grey socks are?

lol :)

If you look at the individual year breakdowns, COVID has currently killed about as many people in 9 months as the flu has killed in the last 4 years combined.

Of course it's not comparable, because there's a flu vaccine. Approx 80% of children who die of the flu aren't vaccinated. (No numbers exist for the adult population)

Also, don't forget that many radical leftists like Joe Biden would've done less than nothing and millions of people would've died, so really the number of lives saved is massive.

Ya know, a 16-point Biden lead nationally suddenly makes Georgia and Texas uh competitive.

do over 100k people in the US ever ever die from the flu? I don't think so.

sure, in 1918, read one history book

Ya know, a 16-point Biden lead nationally suddenly makes Georgia and Texas uh competitive.

There's not a 16-point Biden lead (but I do actually think Georgia and Texas are competitive)

#earlyvote updates in from AL, PA, and WI posted. Now at least 4.25 million people have voted in the 2020 general election https://t.co/s8K2xFDeSA

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) October 6, 2020

I do wonder whether we’d be seeing the same numbers with Bernie instead of Biden.

Just a thought experiment...

2xp

3xp rather.

xposts There are some estimates that the 1958 and 1968 flus took out 100k Americans, too.

According to the CDC, "During the 2019-2020 influenza season, CDC estimates that influenza was associated with 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths."

There's not a 16-point Biden lead (but I do actually think Georgia and Texas are competitive)

― Guayaquil (eephus!)

I refer to this: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/06/poll-biden-national-lead-election-day-426688

Cavils about the rationality of national polls implied.

Biden campaigning in Texas - or at least some well-placed ad buys - could spook Rs into feeling like they need to defend it, which could be strategically useful.

And as Beto and others have pointed out, Texas doesn't do mail voting and therefore we will know the winner on election night. If Texas were to flip there would be no way Trump can win, and it would avoid us weeks of nail-biting.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/10/04/joe-biden-win-texas/

Not sure I buy it but the prospect of knowing the winner faster is pretty tempting.

The closing of polling stations suggests Texas GOP has seen ominous numbers.

otm

New Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania, trend from August:

Biden: 54% (+5)
Trump: 42% (-3)https://t.co/caIwTDRLho

— Dave Weigel, Re-Animator (@daveweigel) October 6, 2020

The fact that voting is underway has got to be a part of the idiot president’s current rona theatrics no? His loser polling isn’t just anticipating Election Day in November but reflects current voting.

Polling station closures in TX started well before things started to go really sideways with the election. Removing all but one ballot drop box in Houston and other cities is a different story though.

Rudy has the same problem as Trump, in that he seems unhealthy in the best of circumstances, but has he announced the results of his covid test? I'd be OK with him dying (again).

So I know there are more competitive senate races than expected, but I'm wondering how voters that are flipping from Trump to Biden will play into this. Will they also flip senate votes or is vote splitting the more likely outcome?

― Mr. Cacciatore (Moodles), Tuesday, October 6, 2020 9:50 AM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

There are only two states that are safe blue states on the presidential level that also have Republican senators up for reelection: Maine (Collins) and Colorado (Gardner). Based on polling, there's a very good chance that those Senate seats will be flipped.

I'd say there are four swing states with Republican senators up for reelection: Arizona (McSally), North Carolina (Tillis), Iowa (Ernst), and Georgia (Loeffler and Perdue). And I think their chances of reelection are probably proportional to the chances that those states go for Trump. (Basically, in reverse order of how I've listed them.)

I'm sure there will be some ticket-splitting, but I don't think it will have a significant effect.

"so have we talked about Thom Tillis being a no-show yet?"

what did he not show up at? I did see he now says he's free of symptoms.

"sure, in 1918, read one history book" I meant in recent history you deflated turd

xxp My guess is that moderate Democratic-leaning voters in the suburbs who may once have been content to vote for a moderate Republican once in a while are no longer as willing to do so.

xxp I thought I heard something on Democracy now with the challenger saying Tillis has not been responding? would love some clarification on that if available.

When they’re all like this at some point we have to stop calling these polls outliers