"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

In serious btw. The Latino vote for trump is up compared to 2016.

Well the polling is up. The vote I guess we’ll see.

Dunno about you, but when I see my cousins locked up in cages like so much cattle, there’s nothing I want more than to re-elect the man who wrought it all in the first place.

“I feel better than i did 20 years ago.”

ima trumpcovid truther now. 😐

he aint got no covid gtfo.

This ain't no covid
This ain't no bird flu

both 538 and the Atlantic had recent articles about the fact that there’s no clear “Latino” voting bloc, which makes a lot of sense to me

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/theres-no-such-thing-as-the-latino-vote/

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/pandemics-assault-latino-political-power/615979/

In serious btw. The Latino vote for trump is up compared to 2016.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, October 5, 2020 7:51 PM (forty-eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Well the polling is up. The vote I guess we’ll see.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, October 5, 2020 7:52 PM (forty-eight minutes ag

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article246216955.html

It's not your fault, caek, but I REALLY wish voters would fucking stop referring to the Latino/Hispanic vote. A Venezuelan or Cuban thinks differently from a Dominican or Peruvia.

*Peruvian

A Peruvia is, of course, a Grasshopper made with Pisco

haha awesome

stop

for a second I thought Alfred knew some Peruano slang I was unfamiliar with

so have we talked about Thom Tillis being a no-show yet?

I heard my name.

I get that talking about groups as electoral monoliths elides complexity and I get that this happens in particular about “the hispanic vote” and “the black vote” in ways that dismisses those groups but...

you can get so granular you miss the wood (the average Hispanic voter is more likely to vote trump this time round than last. This is important!) for the trees (Miami’s Cubans are breaking for biden. Also important!)

(Also the naive belief that those groups are monoliths can give them more power in some situations, eg “the black vote” in LA).

This is now the Englishman explain racial politics thread, sorry

you miss the wood

Hey, careful

hear for the woo

d

(the average Hispanic voter is more likely to vote trump this time round than last. This is important!)

That's a stunning misrepresentation of the numbers. Biden is leading Trump among Latino voters 62-26. Yes, he's getting less of the Latino vote than Clinton got, but look at this graphic:

https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2020_38/3413520/image001_c58c14027b0ee7699868632506c2a44c.fit-1120w.png

maybe it's that the pundits are possibly setting up the Latino voters to be scapegoats if Trump ekes out a win, conveniently eliding Trump's massive support from aggrieved white people

it's also because pundits know jack shit except there's a bloc called "Hispanics" and few media folk are Hispanic

That's a stunning misrepresentation of the numbers. Biden is leading Trump among Latino voters 62-26.

maybe it's that the pundits are possibly setting up the Latino voters to be scapegoats if Trump ekes out a win, conveniently eliding Trump's massive support from aggrieved white people

It’s a bit like the focus on working-class voters going Republican in 2016. Yes it’s unfair to let the rich voters off the hook when they remain Trumpier then poorer ones, but it’s the shift that changed the election so you can understand why that’s what people focus on. Just good to remember the raw numbers as well as the trend every so often.

Not suggesting Republican Latinos are going to swing 2020 for Trump but I can see why the change is of interest. As for the segmentation thing, what is the wider value, if there is one in lumping all these ethnic groups together as Latino?

From @DanaBashCNN: Source says Treasury Sec. Steve Mnuchin asked Speaker Pelosi if he could come to the Hill Friday for stimulus talks & she said no. She said she can’t trust anyone in the WH on Covid. “The way they treat people – I don’t want them here.”

— Kristin Wilson (@kristin__wilson) October 5, 2020

the entire Republican party is gonna be treated like a leper colony for the next month, lets see how forcing through this SC justice goes

White people, even "non-college educated whites" aren't a monolithic bloc of experiences and socioeconomic backgrounds but we still talk about them as a demographic.

Hispanic voters seem to have a greater variance based on class and education, the question of how you win a greater share of their votes factors that in more than establishment Democrats are comfortable with. Approaching them purely on identity is how you get a declining share from 2012 to 2016 and from 2016 to 2020.

speaking of

🚨 this is a five-alarm fire for the president’s campaign, if true pic.twitter.com/KsM7g58Ixm

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 6, 2020

come on, what's one thing he's ever done to hurt seniors

i feel like there are some extremely bad polls coming for trump over the next few days

yes, he must be reeling from that Access Hollywood recording leak

"When you're a star, they let you do it. Cough on 'em, fart in the Suburban, spread it all around..."

horrifying to think what this president has done to the once-great Hokey Pokey

@realDonaldTrump
Flu season is coming up! Many people every year, sometimes over 100,000, and despite the Vaccine, die from the Flu. Are we going to close down our Country? No, we have learned to live with it, just like we are learning to live with Covid, in most populations far less lethal!!!

so we're back to this fucking shit now?

I will never love another President again! https://t.co/KntLywoHcf

— Matt Gaetz (@mattgaetz) October 6, 2020

Dignity is a foreign country to Gaetz

(CNN)Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump has expanded and the former vice president now holds his widest lead of the cycle with less than a month remaining before Election Day, according to a new nationwide CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.

Among likely voters, 57% say they back Biden and 41% Trump in the poll that was conducted entirely after the first debate and mostly after the President's coronavirus infection was made public.

nobody likes a sick loser

The only rational explanation I can ascribe (a completely misguided attempt on my part, but) to his current behavior is that he strongly suspects that he's about to die and wants to burn down as much shit on the way out as he can.

The 30-35% who buy into it are what keeps me up at night.

He died for your sins.

Really, if it's all been about personal gain and building his brand and whatnot, dying in office a martyr could help boost the prospects of his family business. They would sell so many memorial plates.

I just imagined seeing one of those ads on the MeTV channel that shows Gunsmoke at noon, and man, I felt this wash of calm go over me.

Is it wrong to find this Claudia Conway stuff hilarious?
I think if it were any other parent I might feel a sliver of sympathy for having to deal with a such a bratty teenager, but it's really the lowest of karmic punishments for such an enabler of evil

wonder why it took so long honestly

I am loving Claudia Conway at the moment, yes

I did find it hilariously embarrassing to see that comedian on Twitter suggest Claudia, a minor, take advantage of her fame to start an OnlyFans account, then proceed to lecture the entire internet on how they don't understand comedy when he was, rightfully, called out for it,

yeah that was Neal Brennan, his reaction doesn't surprise me