"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Misread that as 'random drunk European popstar rocking up the thread' and expected one of the Gallaghers to give their thorough analysis of USA today.

Y'know, or Gay Dad's drummer.

only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters

My understanding is that most reputable pollsters in the U.S. already do this during the last couple of months of a campaign. Often they start with registered voters but then shift to a likely-voter model after Labor Day. I did see the other day that NBC had decided to keep using registered voters for its current polls, but this was seen as anomalous.

meanwhile

What was surprising was that the first three years went a lot better than I expected, 2020 seems like the arrival of exactly what we were worried about. https://t.co/6xFCDPZ6fl

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) October 4, 2020

Donated to MJ Hegar and Mike Siegel campaigns

if this works theres nothin you can do but tip yr cap and go home

Trump campaign attacks Joe Biden for lack of ‘firsthand experience’ being infected with COVID-19 https://t.co/V9LHjyKJme

— Raw Story (@RawStory) October 5, 2020

lmao

How can you lead the country if you've never danced with death?

I think I’m gonna be out of lulz forever after this.

Man...there's spin and then there's spinning so fuckin' hard you throw up all over yourself and fall and get a traumatic brain injury and spend the rest of your life as a vegetable.

Fuck, I was joking with someone that Trump would take that angle.

Do his lapdogs fall for it because they gobble it up or because they think it’s daring and oh-so-clever?

Needless to say, I think Biden should end his negative detente.

negative ad detente, that is.

The WH press secretary says she has tested positive for COVID. https://t.co/n0K79d1Hmz

— Jim Acosta (@Acosta) October 5, 2020

No one could have foreseen this.

Queue a million clips of her prevaricating about COVID

"as an essential worker"

For the more masochistic among us:

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskTrumpSupporters/

If she was covering her ass any more she’d be an, uh, a very assiduous ass-coverer!!

xpost the scary and sad thing is, those people are among the more reasonable of supporters.

didn't she brief the press yesterday

She brief-ened the life of the press, at the very least.

Dunno, Josh, presenting Trump’s actions in a purportedly ‘rational’ light strikes me as even more irrational than frothing at the mouth.

no choice but to bring back the Mooch now

I think a lot of the people on that reddit thread are rational to the point of being sociopaths. like, if literally all I cared about was the second amendment or abortion, then of course I would support Trump. a lot of the people on that thread concede they hate the man, think he's a moron, don't like his decisions, don't agree with a lot of the things he says or does, and still are so fervently anti-abortion or pro second amendment that they are supporting him.

unless you're talking about something specific you linked to, I'm talking about the forum in general.

Fair enough, that segment of the population does indeed strike me as less insane than the true sycophants, but there’s no dearth of the latter either on that subreddit ime.

NEW NYT/SIENA poll of ARIZONA

President
Biden (D): 49% (+8)
Trump (R-inc): 41%#AZSEN
Kelly (D): 50% (+11)
McSally (R-inc): 39%

read more here--> https://t.co/CS7CNcDOaN

— Jackson Bryman (@kilometerbryman) October 5, 2020

this was a Trump +6 sample in 2016

fwiw a lot of the people who I expected to say "I usually vote Republican/3rd party/don't vote but now have to vote Democrat because of this fucking bozo" in 2016 are definitely saying this now

Yup

btw Eric Trump's being deposed by the NYAG's office today.

Also, Toomey announced he's not running again in 2022

That subreddit shared upthread seems pretty useless, given that it appears that almost all of the "Nonsupporter" sides of the discussion have comments that are downvoted and hidden.

I don't think it would be crazy—from a purely strategic standpoint, notwithstanding the health risk—for Harris to put her foot down and say leaders need to take COVID seriously and she won't debate in person until Pence is out of the quarantine period.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 5, 2020

https://clickhole.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/dnmtn4ksijwyep0xmljk.jpg

COVID stood NO chance against @realDonaldTrump! pic.twitter.com/GtNPOHkDqF

— Kelly Loeffler (@KLoeffler) October 5, 2020

^ i wish i still lived in georgia so i could help send this walking b3n g4rr1s0n cartoon packing at the ballot box

OK, the Pustule-in-Chief is back in his temporary residence, so...can anyone name any subgroup of Americans that will be voting for him in larger numbers this year than voted for him four years ago? I have seen polls that show he has lost major ground with old people, white women, the uneducated...every group that helped push his Glad-bag-of-discarded-ham person across the finish line in 2016 has retreated, and he's underwater in every one of the states that provided his electoral victory last time. So how does he possibly pull this out?

i don't know, are you afraid of covid? do you want to vote for the party that's afraid of covid? well, well. interesting.

latinos xp

I know I don’t represent any “group” of voters but personally I have to admit that seeing the President’s fighting spirit and resilience is sort of inspiring and I am thinking of changing my vote.

I hope his lungs prolapse during the town hall.

can anyone name any subgroup of Americans that will be voting for him in larger numbers this year than voted for him four years ago?

Yes. Racists, sexists, and homophobes who were too young to vote in 2016.

I don't know if any reputable polling organization has specifically polled neo-nazis aged 18-23, but I suspect Trump is doing pretty well with that demographic.

Note: there may not be enough of them, though. I suspect the growth in POC of that age group will turn out to be larger. Of course, whether they vote and where they vote matters. I guess we'll see.

In serious btw. The Latino vote for trump is up compared to 2016.

Well the polling is up. The vote I guess we’ll see.

Dunno about you, but when I see my cousins locked up in cages like so much cattle, there’s nothing I want more than to re-elect the man who wrought it all in the first place.

“I feel better than i did 20 years ago.”

ima trumpcovid truther now. 😐

he aint got no covid gtfo.

This ain't no covid
This ain't no bird flu

both 538 and the Atlantic had recent articles about the fact that there’s no clear “Latino” voting bloc, which makes a lot of sense to me

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/theres-no-such-thing-as-the-latino-vote/

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/pandemics-assault-latino-political-power/615979/

In serious btw. The Latino vote for trump is up compared to 2016.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, October 5, 2020 7:51 PM (forty-eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Well the polling is up. The vote I guess we’ll see.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, October 5, 2020 7:52 PM (forty-eight minutes ag

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article246216955.html