U.S. Supreme Court: Post-Ginsburg Edition

xp

doc casino, first of all, obviously i had Shown Furcotte in mind. but secondly, the rest of your scenario seems plausible!

obviously gaming it out like that is a goof, but i did actually learn a few things. or maybe not. i feel like just laying out their ages, combined with the fact that they have lifetime appointments, explains 99% of the game:

christmas near-future:

roberts is 65
thomas is 72
alito is 70
gorsuch is 53
the golden boy is 55
barrett is 48

breyer is 82
sotomayor is 66
kagan is 60

that there is a stacked deck, combined with republican weakness (in terms of what we might expect, possibly overoptimistically, from their presidential chances for the next few decades after elevating a white supremacist fascist to the presidency and then ripping the country to shreds in an attempt to keep him there). even with a couple 2-term democratic administrations in a row, through 2036, there is still a decent chance that at least 5 or even all 6 of the conservative majority stays right where they are, their ass-molds worn deep

in unrelated news, just before i fell asleep face down on the couch last night, i ran across a disturbing headline about increasing the maximum human lifespans beyond its current soft limit of 125. apparently the consensus is that it will soon (10 years?) be possible to extend human lifespans using genetic modifiers, physical devices, and secret codes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_extension jfc

agreed, it's a useful exercise to grasp exactly how much the age advantage of the GWB and DJT appointees presses on into the future. but also, focusing too much on that just takes us into a zone of gloom, so unless it's directly useful for motivating present-day action and the long-term fight, i think it's also useful to bear in mind all the ways that the scenario could suddenly break down. nobody saw Scalia's death coming, for example, even though he was 79. that ended up working out horribly for the cause of justice and freedom, but it could have gone differently. so long as our rights are subject to these bizarre matters of fate and circumstance, we may as well remind ourselves that there are ways the probabilistic parts could break our way.

and the stacked deck there does look better the moment Biden can replace Breyer, which i think we all do need to be praying for (or whatever equivalent practice).

and... all these scenarios also presume a successful barrett confirmation. tbh, i'm pretty doom-and-gloom about that, seems like there's no reason to think it won't happen. but it's still probably not good for my head to already accept her as a solid number until 2049 or w/e. like if i'm driving myself crazy with all the bad things that have already happened, and the ones that could probably happen, and the ones that are near-certainties, that's a lot to do to my head, if i'm not also considering the good equivalents of all of those things.

there's also some non-zero chance that, in the event that a Democrat wins the presidential race four times in a row and this permanent 5-4 Court keeps shutting down every exciting thing the people are turning out to vote for, then a mandate for court-packing develops much much more quickly than we might expect right now.

so long as our rights are subject to these bizarre matters of fate and circumstance, we may as well remind ourselves that there are ways the probabilistic parts could break our way.

otm

i know that's not a convincing or comforting thought for everyone, but to me that really is what gives me hope

NEW: Senate Democrats say they will press President Trump’s SCOTUS nominee to commit to recuse herself if the justices hear a case that could impact the outcome of the fall elections, @mkraju reports.

— Ana Cabrera (@AnaCabrera) September 25, 2020

That seems a little dumb

I mean it makes sense but they'd still have a 5-3 advantage anyway

"Will you commit to not doing the exact thing you were hired for" is a dumb question

and... all these scenarios also presume a successful barrett confirmation. tbh, i'm pretty doom-and-gloom about that, seems like there's no reason to think it won't happen

i will continue to return to my dumb "we simulate the future and then experience it in real time, somehow diminished, as something that was already familiar" theory, until someone or something convinces me that it's not accurate. in that line of thinking, you can already see the barrett confirmation and how it happens. i already saw a headline, last night, talking about how barrett was confirmed in October. i looked at the calendar and it was september 25th, then re-read the headline and it still said that she was confirmed in October, past tense. i can't remember where i saw it, and i had a socially distanced hangout with a friend last night and got way too drunk. but still, it was there all the same.

that was just a drunken horror, but i woke up today and it's still there. the republicans have the votes. 2 have been allowed to deviate (murkowski and collins), which just so happens to allow exactly enough remaining republicans to unilaterally install barrett. what a coincidence. this outcome has already been focus-grouped on a national scale - it turns out that most republicans think it's a great idea, most democrats think it's a bad idea, and the majority of "independents" think it's a bad idea. it sounds like most ideas these days. so they'll do it, because they can.

we're currently simulating the outraged response, right now. at least, i am. and then, when it happens, it won't be the first time.

---

^i think all of that is a very bad way to go about thinking about life, believe it or not. but that's what i see happening over and over, lately.

xpost they're not asking her to not be a justice, they're saying 'Hey, you were literally just nominated by one of the President candidates in this election 5 minutes before the election, maybe it's a conflict of interest for you ruling on a case challenging his results".

But this is the primary reason they are in such a rush. If she can't guarantee to hand over the election, it's pointless for Trump. Surely he already told her she needs to deliver that vote, or there would be a different pick.

lol of course it's not going to actually happen but would you rather the Democrats not try it first so that they can frame it as "Justice Coney Barrett refused to recuse, she and Trump win, while Americans lose!"

I mean, compared to other things they should be trying, this is VERY low on my list of importance and I wouldn't want it to take the place of promising to pack the fuck out of courts, but we're kinda fucked unless someone has a McCain surprise during the vote.

@ Moodles - isn't the primary reason McConnell & co. are in such a rush that Trump has a good chance of not being President in 3.5 months? and they want to grab another Supreme Court seat for all the reasons you would expect them to want that? potentially covering his ass in a stolen election would just be the cherry on top.

Trump and McConnell have different motivations, but this is Trump's pick, not McConnell's

technically, but which one of the two is able to exert the most control over 51 republican votes?

(amy barrett, but pure coincidence, happened to be exactly who mcconnell was pushing for)

trump, on the other hand, has the federalist society publish a list for him so that he can make his fantasy list of 25 candidates (which included tom cotton and ted cruz) seem more legit. i'm sure they arranged it in a way so that trump felt that was the crucial decisionmaker who made the tough call, but there are probably a dozen other people that had more to do with this pick than trump

Lucky for them there are so many justices out there willing to both undermine the integrity of a major election and nuke Roe v Wade. Funny how those interests conveniently line up.

xp

I think you are sort of right to extent. Trump is obviously not hand picking justices based on some deep judicial reasoning. But rest assured, he's asking any potential justice one question and one question only, and if they don't give the correct answer, they aren't going in front of the Senate.

by the time it gets to trump, it's like "oh great leader, we just simply can't decide between the bounty of perfect candidates on your list! you are so impressive, you know much more about their judicial record than ANY other person we have ever met! please, decide for us with your strength and genius! we have OPTION 1) Amy Barrett, OPTION 2) Barbara Lagoa, or OPTION 3) Michelle Obama. and also many people are saying barack obama favors Lagoa over his own wife! george bush also prefers Lagoa. Please decide for us with your wisdom and intuition!"

haha, sorry. i am in an extremely goofy mood this morning. i think they'd actually do a version of ^^ in the earlier stages, before whittling it down to a set of "options" where he actually can't mess it up

Perhaps rather than asking "will you recuse yourself?" they should be asking "did the president request you rule in his favor if the election is contested?"

xp

Certainly possible

This goes to a larger pet peeve about these confirmation hearings, which is that there are always questions about how someone might rule in this or that case, and the answer is always that they can't speculate about a hypothetical situation. It's a meaningless line of inquiry designed as a gotcha that no one actually cares about.

The whole notion that these are not political picks driven by an obvious agenda is so out of date and ridiculous, it would be better to drop the pretense.

Yes how can we expect lawyers and judges to speculate about hypotheticals

The point is, they don't. It doesn't matter what we expect. We've seen this game play out over and over, so expecting it to change is folly.

If you are expecting any of this to operate under a set of unwritten norms that were trashed years ago, you are being played.

my homie is seriously sharing this op ed and trying to accept Amy w an open mind and open heart so I guess he’s just a Sorkin Republican now jfc

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/26/ive-known-amy-coney-barrett-15-years-liberals-have-nothing-fear/

lol

also by "O. Carter Snead" a name designed to make me want to punch the person
https://www.hoover.org/research/planned-parenthoods-hostages

There is nothing to fear about Barrett’s intellect. She has an incandescent mind that has won the admiration of colleagues across the ideological spectrum.

getting Rich Lowry flashbacks

Sooooo fucking tired of SCOTUS nominees called "brilliant" as if what they do requires anything other than keeping the clerks happy as they cobble your opinion together.

I for one was worried that she was actually illiterate.

The GOP has been functionally illiterate since 1981.

Those concerns assuaged, I look forward to strapping on my legally mandated cilice every morning to get me ready to face the day.

time to invest in chastity belt manufacturers

i think i saw incandescent mind open for gene loves jezebel in '87

time to invest in chastity belt manufacturers

Clasping hands meme with BDSM nerds and Opus Dei

Xpost
Moodles, I wasn’t disagreeing with you

Whatever hearing we get out of this will be pointless

Here's the only likely way she doesn't get confirmed before Election Day:

https://i.imgur.com/HzAVTWk.png

The Hill reports:

The Senate Judiciary Committee will start a four-day hearing for President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee on Oct. 12, two people familiar with the schedule confirmed to The Hill.

Though other nominees have been confirmed in fewer days, they were further away from the presidential election. Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is expected to announce the committee’s schedule later Saturday.

Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, Trump’s first two Supreme Court nominees, both had nearly two months between their formal nominations and the start of their hearings. Under the schedule set by Graham, Amy Coney Barrett will have little more than two weeks.

telling myself O. Carter Snead is a (well, another) Virgil Texas pseudonym.

Snead also wrote this piece of garbage. Fuck them and anybody falling for this ruse of a piece.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/planned-parenthood-will-forgo-payment-for-fetal-tissue-so-now-its-ok-because-its-free

Almost as if perhaps they're just hoping gullible, tired liberals will let their guard down so they can get their way on abortion

Democracy dies in darkness IIRC

oh no

🚨 LIMITED EDITION: Show your support for Pres. Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Judge Amy Coney Barrett, with your very own Notorious A.C.B. t-shirt! Claim yours here ⬇️https://t.co/qi1eWqTz17

— The Senate Majority (@NRSC) September 26, 2020

Great, offensive on two levels and counting

Pretty sure Alito will retire before the new term begins; she read the B-matter.

In April unidentified sources said Alito was NOT planning to retire this year, and that Thomas had no plans to step down.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-justices-alito-thomas-not-retiring-sources-say/

Meanwhile on X, right-wingers are refusing to address the majority take on the history of birthright citizenship and some are urging red states to just nullify the decision by somehow not accepting that some folks born here are citizens and by trying to deport pregnant immigrants.

xpost Yeah, that's what I was thinking of. People were surprised because it would obv. be better for them to retire while Repubs still have a Senate majority.

If Thomas stepped down he'd get to join some corporate boards and be hired as a speaker to conservative groups, but without his seat on the court he'd soon find himself treated like a has been and non-entity. He'll put that off as long as he can.

Nina falling on her sword, saying it was all her fault

xpost It’s also a choice between letting Trump cement the majority with 30 year old Nazi judges or sticking around and continuing to win win win!

Stephen Miller says on Fox that Trump Administration Will Examine Banning Pregnant Foreign Women from Entering United States; chyron under him says "birth tourism is a ticking time bomb"

Stephen Miller says on Fox that Trump Administration Will Examine Banning Pregnant Foreign Women from Entering United States; chyron under him says "birth tourism is a ticking time bomb"

https://www.timesofisrael.com/stephen-millers-uncle-calls-him-an-immigration-hypocrite/

Yep. Saw that back then. Plus Trump's current wife and a prior wife have shakey immigration status which means their kids under Stephen Miller's idiocy could be kicked out too. But Republicans don't seem to care and as others here note the racism is a feature for them that they like and not a bug. They're not reading Justice Jackson's concurrence. But it's good to know and remember .

In April unidentified sources said Alito was NOT planning to retire this year, and that Thomas had no plans to step down.

i don’t put much stock in this because of course the sources said that. if they said he WAS planning on retiring, or that Thomas was planning to step down, that would be huge news. instead, the sources kept the status quo, that neither were planning anything.

however, i don’t know much. further along that line of barely knowing, i barely know (but think) that thomas and alito must be having the time of their lives right now. they both spent their entire lives waiting to weigh in on cases like this, it must be thrilling to hurt so many people with their pen

it’s that thrill of cruelty that you can see in alito’s eyes, mixed with the position that literally says “you represent judgment"

you’re a fucking cruel ass judge, and your cruelty is cloaked in procedure - nice, you did it