For all the dire warnings of the Big Dunties, in material terms 2016-19 was plain sailing for Cummings and Johnson, they weren't really on the hook for anything that went wrong. And economically it will seem like a picnic compared with what's around the corner.
A strategy that works when you're the insurgents doesn't necessarily work when you've been the incumbents for four or five years. They're also going to have to bet on a very long lease of life for "well, they're doing the best they can under the circumstances", and I wouldn't necessarily bet against that.
But we've done all this before, surviving the next 12 months is more important than trying to second guess what's going to happen in 2024.
― Matt DC, Monday, 7 September 2020 07:42 (three years ago) link
It is getting increasingly expensive though: pre-2019 they were just burning through Tory ministers and minority partners to keep the dream alive, now (unless this is stupid sabre-rattling) it is going to cost territory and treaties just to ... keep on owning the libs. I worry less now that there’s a grand “make-us-Singapore and short everything” plan afoot and more that they’re the dog that caught the car.
― stet, Monday, 7 September 2020 07:55 (three years ago) link
on radio this morning they appear to have rebranded 'no deal brexit' as 'australia-style deal', less than a week after tony abbott was invited to participate...
― koogs, Monday, 7 September 2020 08:16 (three years ago) link
Australia can afford an 'Australian-style deal' with the EU because it doesn't really trade much with the EU. And it's in active negotiation with the EU, so even Australia won't have an 'Australian-style deal' for much longer.
Australian exports to the EU = £10 billion
UK exports to the EU = £300 billion
― Zelda Zonk, Monday, 7 September 2020 08:44 (three years ago) link
Getting some Varoufakis vibes/trolling from that FT report and we all know how that went down with the EU.
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 7 September 2020 08:45 (three years ago) link
How is this all going down in Northern Ireland right now? I mean I can guess but it would be nice to read some informed commentary.
― Matt DC, Monday, 7 September 2020 08:50 (three years ago) link
Hard to know which level of deception the UK government is on:1) they really want to blow up talks and don’t want a deal2) they want EU to think they want to blow up talks to get concessions in a deal3) they want Brexiteers to think they think this as theatrics to do a deal https://t.co/wWClpTmpYz— Jon Stone (@joncstone) September 6, 2020
I'm with 3 rn.
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 7 September 2020 09:23 (three years ago) link
3 seems credible.
― Matt DC, Monday, 7 September 2020 09:26 (three years ago) link
Of those options I'm with three — this isn't for EU consumption, but I still don't follow. The Brexiteer faithful's appetite for carnage is high, so how is "we threatened carnage but ... then backed down" going to help them sell it?"This deal is complicated don't bother reading it, we promise it gives you all the cake we said you'd get" has worked much better so far.
― stet, Monday, 7 September 2020 09:40 (three years ago) link
1) and 3) aren’t mutually exclusive right? If I’m reading the garbled syntax correctly.Stephen Bush says:Yes, undermining the Irish border protocol means undermining any hope of a serious US-UK trade deal, but the government's own red lines, on agri-food, the National Health Service and more besides have already undermined any hope of a serious US-UK trade deal. And the big prize of Brexit, at least as far as this Downing Street is concerned, is freedom from restrictions on state aid: an aim that, similarly, cannot be achieved while signing any EU-UK trade deal. So the possibility of a no deal remains very high - and the government's moves in that direction should be taken seriously.
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, 7 September 2020 10:03 (three years ago) link
RTE says:
In essence, says one official, Dublin is concerned that it was being asked to effectively trade its influence with the commission over legal obligations under the protocol to which the UK had signed up.According to the official: "We won’t get in a position where we’re teaming up with the British on something and then going back with it to Brussels."That’s just not how it was done for four years and we’re not going to start doing it now.
― scampo italiano (gyac), Monday, 7 September 2020 10:19 (three years ago) link
They've been calling it an Australian-style deal for most of the year now.https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-australia-trade-deal-brexit-eu-phil-hogan-a9319591.html
Tracer, the idea with 3) is that this is fresh meat to be thrown to the Brexiteers - you can sleep soundly because your freedoms are being protected by virile British laws - but they'll make a deal anyway.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 7 September 2020 10:31 (three years ago) link
I think the plan has always been to crash the deal and blame the EU
― A Short Film About Scampoes (Noodle Vague), Monday, 7 September 2020 10:54 (three years ago) link
Is that the plan? The Tories have commitments to British capitalism and the Union. How does crashing out help with either?
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 7 September 2020 11:29 (three years ago) link
I think it's entirely possible that Johnson could come back with a deal that concedes more sovereignty than May had planned and a big chunk of the Brexiters would still be going "ra ra Boris he got it done in the end, great job". Farage and maybe a few ERG members will pipe up but will it make much difference?
At this stage, the vast majority of people who voted Leave almost certainly have other things on their mind than what flavour of Brexit deal we get, the page has already been turned on that particular chapter.
― Matt DC, Monday, 7 September 2020 11:35 (three years ago) link
Entertaining if true that State Aid really is the hill Cummings is making them die on. Lexit here we come
― stet, Monday, 7 September 2020 12:23 (three years ago) link
Staff at school Boris Johnson visited days ago tests positive for Covid-19https://t.co/IktYZqBwWB pic.twitter.com/vZaxb4VXGr— Mirror Politics (@MirrorPolitics) September 7, 2020
― chonky floof (groovypanda), Monday, 7 September 2020 12:34 (three years ago) link
"Don't kill your granny by catching coronavirus and then passing it on" - Matt Hancock on Radio 1 Newsbeat https://t.co/pVJFzZazJd— Emily Ashton (@elashton) September 7, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 7 September 2020 13:47 (three years ago) link
matt hancock otm, great advice
― you are like a scampicane, there's calm in your fries (bizarro gazzara), Monday, 7 September 2020 14:29 (three years ago) link
with the caveat that if your granny is one of them Mail-reading tory-voting curtain-twitching narks, then give her a hearty hug!
― calzino, Monday, 7 September 2020 14:37 (three years ago) link
Terrific work, thousands of children now going home petrified that they're going to kill their granny and/or parents just because they went to school. Perhaps that might have been a better message to give to Gavin Williamson around the Cabinet table.
― Matt DC, Monday, 7 September 2020 14:41 (three years ago) link
I haven't seen a great deal written about how a socially distanced hall of residence is supposed to work either because piling loads of 18 year olds together for the first time has very predictable results that aren't going to change much because we're in a pandemic.
― Matt DC, Monday, 7 September 2020 14:43 (three years ago) link
And of course the catchment area for a uni is somewhat larger than for a school.
Failure to do anything to address the imminent return to HE is probably even more irresponsible and likely lethal than the back to school push
― A Short Film About Scampoes (Noodle Vague), Monday, 7 September 2020 14:47 (three years ago) link
And that's before I even think about how the tensions between students and locals are gonna play out in socially distanced pubs, residential areas etc. Legit scary.
― A Short Film About Scampoes (Noodle Vague), Monday, 7 September 2020 14:49 (three years ago) link
This government's entire steez is looking at car crashes in the rear view mirror and blaming other drivers
― A Short Film About Scampoes (Noodle Vague), Monday, 7 September 2020 14:50 (three years ago) link
I wonder how many of the returning students are just back from breaks in Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc.
― Scampo di tutti i Scampi (ShariVari), Monday, 7 September 2020 14:53 (three years ago) link
And then imagine if we get thru to December without a national lockdown and everybody goes home for a family christmas
― A Short Film About Scampoes (Noodle Vague), Monday, 7 September 2020 14:54 (three years ago) link
On top of all this a 15 year old boy has been fucking shot in Suffolk on the way to school.
― nashwan, Monday, 7 September 2020 15:03 (three years ago) link
I heard that but I figured "just East Anglia things"
― A Short Film About Scampoes (Noodle Vague), Monday, 7 September 2020 15:06 (three years ago) link
Christmas is the big thing I'm worried about: I can't see this ending well in any way, let alone w/Brexitxp wtf Suffolk
― stet, Monday, 7 September 2020 15:15 (three years ago) link
"piling loads of 18 year olds together for the first time has very predictable results that aren't going to change much"
Loneliness, rejection, alienation, isolation, despair.
― the pinefox, Monday, 7 September 2020 16:23 (three years ago) link
all right thom yorke
― mark s, Monday, 7 September 2020 16:31 (three years ago) link
lol was gonna say Morrissey
― A Short Film About Scampoes (Noodle Vague), Monday, 7 September 2020 16:33 (three years ago) link
i wd never
― mark s, Monday, 7 September 2020 16:52 (three years ago) link
It was amusing seeing Diane Abbot spoonerising Keith's name on Sky news yesterday. This is going to be my regular slot where I gather the previous days low hanging fruit! But tbf I think at least two ilx posters used the same one as a dn in recent history.
― calzino, Monday, 7 September 2020 17:41 (three years ago) link
BREAKING: The government has increased the length of time that those charged with criminal offences can be detained in custody before trial by 2 months to from 182 days to 238. https://t.co/czwFcovHn0— Catherine Baksi (@legalhackette) September 6, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 7 September 2020 19:34 (three years ago) link
The Government has whipped its MPs to defeat @UKLabour’s new clause to the #FireSafetyBill which would have put into law the implementation of the recommendations of #Grenfell Inquiry Phase I. This is a shameful dereliction of duty on fire safety.— Nick Thomas-Symonds MP (@NickTorfaen) September 7, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 7 September 2020 21:11 (three years ago) link
not good, but I still can't stand Nick Thomas-Symonds. He's only slightly less repellent and worthy of a good shoeing than sir keith and that fucking Enoch Powell alike cunt, Ashworth.
― calzino, Monday, 7 September 2020 21:24 (three years ago) link
Oh yeah he's shit, that was the first tweet that came up with this awful news on.
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 7 September 2020 21:48 (three years ago) link
oh of course, didn't mean anything other than maximum ill will to these Labour wankers within the comment!
― calzino, Monday, 7 September 2020 21:52 (three years ago) link
Lol
Starmer needs to go full prosecutor mode on the Grenfell recommendations being blocked, enough with civility— jacob richardson (@jjarichardson) September 7, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 7 September 2020 22:08 (three years ago) link
an establishment melt will take the knee as a stunt but not take the gloves off!
― calzino, Monday, 7 September 2020 22:12 (three years ago) link
You wouldn't like him when he's angry
― A Short Film About Scampoes (Noodle Vague), Monday, 7 September 2020 22:42 (three years ago) link
when he angrily takes his hand of his edwardian oak mantelpiece, the guy is a fucking force
― calzino, Monday, 7 September 2020 22:45 (three years ago) link
his trembling hand on the mantelpiece even scares me
― calzino, Monday, 7 September 2020 22:51 (three years ago) link
https://24.media.tumblr.com/5690eac39d8f848475872c77317c98fa/tumblr_n0nf58wycJ1s0a80fo1_500.gif live footage of Starmer in action at pmqs after his statements supporting the government get read back to him
― scampo italiano (gyac), Monday, 7 September 2020 22:57 (three years ago) link
Details of the £12.2bn Affordable Homes Programme released this morning.Couple of key points:https://t.co/nnpS9xV10p— Peter Apps (@PeteApps) September 8, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 8 September 2020 09:50 (three years ago) link
Theresa May...thank you
Theresa May is second on the list of urgent questions to NI Secretary Brandon Lewis in Commons at 12.30 - after Labour NI lead Louise Haigh - who is asking about plan to weaken the NI protocol and Withdrawal Agreement— seanwhelanRTE (@seanwhelanRTE) September 8, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 8 September 2020 12:05 (three years ago) link
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/07/eu-has-powers-to-punish-uk-if-it-breaches-brexit-treaty-experts-warn
This is good on what could actually happen to the government if it breaks the agreement.
― Matt DC, Tuesday, 8 September 2020 12:10 (three years ago) link
🚨 Brandon Lewis confirms the Government will break international law on EU Withdrawal Deal: "Yes, this does break international law in a very specific and limited way". pic.twitter.com/6B8pU5M2cH— Adam Schwarz (@AdamJSchwarz) September 8, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 8 September 2020 13:21 (three years ago) link