Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

a solid 80% of the animal crossing crowd is going to poke their head out the door on nov 3, take in the reality of IRL, and then completely disregard voting and go back to a place where things make more sense

Tom Nook for Landlord

Going to play devil's advocate here, but he told u 4 x to get on the sidewalk, the 4th he said "or get arrested". U didn't comply, he followed thru. If you're brittle, why r u there? Y didn't u obey? There is chaos there, they don't care about u. Seems like u asked for that?

— Tracie (@traciej68) September 1, 2020

bidenharrisavatar.jpg

Milo, meant to ask before but what do you make of the argument that liberals/moderates will be easier to move left under a Biden administration than a Trump one?

Milo, you do realize that citing one person with a Biden-Harris Twitter avatar who could be anyone at all or even a bot, means exactly nothing about Biden or Harris or how either would govern, don't you? It's even less of an indicator than when you see a car parked crooked across two parking spots and they have a Sanders bumper sticker.

Milo, meant to ask before but what do you make of the argument that liberals/moderates will be easier to move left under a Biden administration than a Trump one?

I haven’t seen anyone make that argument... but I would say it makes no sense. With their guy in power, libs and centrists are going to be more invested in defending him and his policies.

BLM support has been pretty uniform in large part because it’s oppositional to Trump. When people are in the streets under President Biden are the suburban homeowners going to be so positive?

Pokemon go cross the animal road and vote, Jack

― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Tuesday, September 1, 2020 12:27 PM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

i know it's more an opportunity to get jokes off than an actual campaign criticism, but the animal crossing yard signs thing is cute at best, corny at worst, and is not at all a thing that will move the needle one way or the other. pokemon go to the polls was much worse for various reasons.

It’s September 1, there’s plenty of time.

I haven’t seen anyone make that argument... but I would say it makes no sense. With their guy in power, libs and centrists are going to be more invested in defending him and his policies.

I think the idea is that eg Bernie grew in support from almost nowhere during the Obama years, and then under Trump significant numbers of people who might otherwise be amenable to Bernie went for the 'safe option' instead (I know there are plenty of other reasons for why that happened)

Or to put another way, if Biden is in power its easier to say to people "see, these issues are continuing even with your guy in power' as kind of happened during Obamas second term, whereas under Trump it reverts to "we'll worry about that later lets just get this guy out". And that if Trump wins the DNC are likely to move even further to the right for 2024 (think there are arguments in both directions on this one)

What success there has been by the 'progressive wing' doesn't appear to have come from conversions on the part of mainline liberal/centrist Democrats, though? Biden's (thus far) successful pitch has been "remember Obama? remember not having to watch the news?"

If The Squad somehow holds up a Biden/Pelosi-backed spending bill that gives cops $500 billion dollars if they promise to be less racist, do you think the average Biden voter is going to side with the Squad? I don't.

If The Squad somehow holds up a Biden/Pelosi-backed spending bill that gives cops $500 billion dollars if they promise to be less racist, do you think the average Biden voter is going to side with the Squad?

I don't think this

But it depends who we mean by average Biden supporter. The question is, are there people who are supporting Biden for the primary reason of wanting to remove Trump rather than anything to do with Biden himself? And if so does removing that reason (removing Trump) make people more amenable to moving leftwards in terms of policy and future candidates?

We have Biden because enough Dems were scared shitless that Bernie would lose to Trump. (Or they just hated Bernie...) Still crazy how all the candidate fell in line so fast for Biden the moment it was down to the last two.

My point is... I'm not sure how people feel about Biden's theoretical policies, which could probably change the minute he took office anyway. I think it's true though that the overriding feeling right now is just get Trump out.

xp I don't see how it does? The anti-Trump coalition is centered in the center-right - from the Lincoln Project to Biden.

Under what will most likely be an ineffectual Biden administration, there is an opportunity for growth on the left, as under the latter years of Obama and under Trump, but it doesn't come from pushing liberals and centrists to the left - the opportunity comes from bringing in otherwise disillusioned people and young people. (Which is kinda like the method Obama used to beat Hillary in the first place.)

Liberals and Democratic centrists are already committed to the party as an institution. Even if you drilled down to their actual political beliefs and illustrated how they differ from Pelosi or Biden, their roles as party avatars is more important.

If The Squad somehow holds up a Biden/Pelosi-backed spending bill that gives cops $500 billion dollars if they promise to be less racist, do you think the average Biden voter is going to side with the Squad?

this is such a ridiculous premise lol

Is it? Bernie's increased prominence came from the Berniebuster holding up Obama's grand tax cut bargain with the GOP, Biden is already on record wanting to lay out hundreds of billions for cops.

It is perhaps too charitable to think Biden would demand less racism of them for the money, I guess.

Pretty obviously though, that was a fill in the blank for whatever left/progressive opposition you want to envision under the Biden administration - whatever it is would be met with the same anger from committed liberals and centrists.

maybe go for a walk or something

me mind on fire
me soul on fire
feeling
hot hot hot

I think my underlying point here is that the largest reason people are giving for voting Biden is "get Trump out", which implies that Trump being in is a net positive for Biden as people put aside everything else for perceived electability. Would they have done that if Trump wasn't in? I don't know, but its leading to a safety first mindset which may be counter-productive

I think I agree, but I don't see how that changes under Biden as President - the GOP is still there to point at to keep people in line. "You don't want to another Trump do you?!"

Yes, that may also be true! There's no real way of knowing that other than I would think it would be less effective than when its against someone currently in power. Also I'd say that didn't really work 2012-2016 in regard to Bernie, and his rise during that period

in other news, 538 made its first prediction as to who will win.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

people might point out these were Hillary's odds from 538, but....not at this point. she was initially given an 80% chance of victory during first rollout, and the 70% was on election day. so not surprisingly, and also because it's an incumbent, they're definitely being cautious.

honestly idk why I even look at this shit two months out but....w/e posting in case anybody else gives a shit

we must, first, help Henderson or Snowden to beat Lloyd George and Churchill (or, rather, compel the former to beat the latter, because the former are afraid of their victory!)

twas ever thus

The anti-Trump coalition is centered in the center-right - from the Lincoln Project to Biden.

There was a poll a few weeks ago (before the conventions) that asked Biden supporters their "main reason" for voting for him. The top reason *by far* was "He is not Trump" at 56%, followed by "Leadership/performance" at 19%. I take that to mean the "anti-Trump coalition" includes many people beyond the center-right. These people may incidentally like Biden personally and agree with him on certain issues, but I don't think they are necessarily committed to his specific beliefs and style of politics.

in other news, 538 made its first prediction as to who will win.

The 2020 forecast debuted on August 12, fwiw.

Tbqh, I'm voting for president for the second time ever, I'm 36, and it's for similar reasons. The first time was to attempt to get rid of W., and this time it's to attempt the get rid of Trump.

I thought Kerry sucked, and I think Biden sucks. There are a lot of people like me!

Just about every vote in my lifetime has been a negative vote, and that's normal.

AUGUST NATIONAL POLL:

General Election:@realDonaldTrump 47%@JoeBiden 49%
Undecided 4%https://t.co/y5l9apBSUk

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) August 31, 2020

Seems bad if the mail in ballots are delayed...

Early number trending trump, a reversal days or weeks later... 😬

This poll also had trump with 19% of black voters, radically higher than any other republican in recent history. Seems unlikely unless there is something happening on the ground we are all missing among black conservatives and moderates.

it also depends a lot on when absentee ballots can be counted, which varies by state.

Arizona can start tallying vote totals as early as 14 days prior to Election Day, but can't release tallies early.

Florida, on the other hand, can't actually count Absentee ballots until after the polls close.

Georgia can start counting at 7 am on Election Day.

Maryland can't begin counting them until the Wednesday after Election Day.

(now, that's just when the counting can START....no idea when it usually FINISHES).

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

that Emerson poll also indicates 28% of respondents indicate they plan to vote by mail. i imagine that's much higher than previous years, but I know in 2016 33 million absentee ballots were sent, soooooo...idk?

If there is a scenario where they count the in person ballots first, and then the absentees trickle in, tipping the election from trump to biden, that would look very suspicious to trump voters.

I had no idea there were that many absentee ballots last time tbh

a lot of them probably come from states where the vote isn't in doubt?

ugh. two months to dwell on this shit is gonna wreck me. esp given that this election will probably drag on for weeks.

Whats up with the polls showing significant black support for trump btw? There have been a few now, not just emerson. (The others were smaller, less established ones)

It's because he's done more for African-Americans than anyone ever, except (maybe) Abraham Lincoln - do keep up

seriously!

i like how he always refers to him as "the late, great abraham lincoln"

tbf you can't hear him on the radio

if we want the masses to follow us (and unless we achieve that, we stand the risk of remaining mere windbags), we must, first, help Henderson or Snowden to beat Lloyd George and Churchill (or, rather, compel the former to beat the latter, because the former are afraid of their victory!); second, we must help the majority of the working class to be convinced by their own experience that we are right, i.e., that the Hendersons and Snowdens are absolutely good for nothing, that they are petty-bourgeois and treacherous by nature, and that their bankruptcy is inevitable; third, we must bring nearer the moment when, on the basis of the disappointment of most of the workers in the Hendersons, it will be possible, with serious chances of success, to overthrow the government of the Hendersons at once

The rest of Lenin's quote explaining his reasons for voting Biden. Also interesting to see that, in this context at least, he wasn't an accelerationist

Looking forward to the day the masses overthrow the Biden regime

We can recontextualize the quote for the times and take 'overthrow the government of the Hendersons' as 'vote for a more left wing option in the primaries in 2024 than would be possible if Trump were president 20-24, due to a less pronounced fearful "safety first" mindset'

I mean reframe

I guess it’s a good thing this guy doesn’t have to campaign out west right now, some nice backdrops for his “let me be clear I will NOT ban fracking” business

The LGBTQ Town Hall went great for Biden, uh pic.twitter.com/QUjQlJI1Xg

— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) October 11, 2019

I hope someone mixed this into an absolute banger

I'm interested in your take on the Lenin quotes, and of applicability (or not) to todays situation, Milo!

"C'mon, man!"

It feels like someone behind the scenes presses a button that triggers a small shock to Biden and makes him say that, whenever the operative feels it is necessary

reports indicate that you do indeed come on man during round-the-clock sex at the gay gay gay gay gay bathhouses, Biden otm tbf

Oh, I thought you were joking because it's completely meaningless in regard to today's situation?
Lenin's talking about the need to make temporary political accommodation with the Labour Party of 1920, which had never been in power and had existed for... 25 years at that point? The closest analogy for today, politically, would be telling leftists to work with trade unions, Bernie and AOC. Which, uh, duh.

The question of voting for Biden or not is entirely irrelevant to any broader (left) political goals aside from 'electing Joe Biden.' He's Lloyd George in the quote (and Trump is Churchill but with less genocide)(so far).

I think I answered the basic question above - the idea that 'the left' can grow via conversion of liberal and centrist Democrats under a centrist Democratic President is a fantasy, as borne out by the three centrist Democratic Presidents of the last five (lol) decades. Tribalism is used as an epithet to beat Republican voters over the head but it's just as applicable to people who consider themselves Democrats (or are Democratic politicians) today. Any act committed by their team is to be celebrated (or actively ignored if it happens anywhere outside of the US itself).

The 'left of the party' might grow via young people, but it will be fought tooth and nail at every step by the Democrats, from the power brokers to the normies, because it criticizes the party. We've had repeated previews of this post-AOC/Squad, even down to a primary challenge of the one old liberal open to making an accommodation with the young progressive. (Upwardly mobile young people are also prone to shifting politics when they get good healthcare at a job or buy a house, of course.)

Whatever real growth or success there is on the left in the United States will come from otherwise uncommitted people - youth and immigrants who haven't formed 'Democrat' as part of their identity, or people who have lost it due to disillusion. This will come from building extra-partisan structures to advocate outside of politics (ie unions) or, perhaps, from actively organizing to hold votes hostage from the Democrats.

Thanks Milo, wasn't joking - I appreciate your viewpoint is all!

I was just thinking over the Lenin quote, I hadn't really decided my own thoughts on it (still haven't)