rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

lols tho at people getting mad and trying to get personal at harshing their Good Vibez Only desires on the Trump is gonna win containment thread.

Sorry, one fewer population number. It really didn't matter in any way if I responded the census at all.

I didn't really give a shit

yeah, we know

xpost In the 'it doesn't matter because nothing matters because eventually the universe will achieve heat death and what's the point of doing anything at all ever' sense u r otm.

mr. putin's got this ;)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/barrs-removal-career-national-security-official-weeks-election/story

xp - also in every other possible sense. Aside from the masturbatory pleasure some may derive from taking part in one of their hallowed institutions, it does not actually matter if you, the individual, take part.

why is ABC News still using go.com

Aside from the masturbatory pleasure some may derive from taking part in one of their hallowed institutions, it does not actually matter if you, the individual, take part.

Jesus fuck, you really may be the most tedious person on ILX. Have you ever managed to impress a girl (or a boy, or whatever) with this dorm-room bullshit?

really awful line of attack there

Yeah, you're probably right about that. But as has long been established, I am one of ILX's worst posters. Anyway, ignore the second sentence if that's what you need to do to maintain your personal emotional equilibrium.

Hey un, hit us with another Politico hit about how everything is fine and dandy because a poll says Biden has a 5.5 point lead with exurban security moms who score high on empathy.

gotta shorten your hype man punch-ins there

Just once, I'd like for some talking head political pundit talking about the election, leads, chances, points, etc., stare dead-eyed into the camera and say, 'You're still assuming there's gonna be a fair election.'

that gets stated in an article practically every other day

538 accounts for that, we have a free and fair election (excluding the standard voter suppression inherent to the US) 79% of the time in their simulations.

i fully expect half the pundits to freak out at the RNC bounce he gets just like in every other previous election since the beginning of polls

"538 accounts for that, we have a free and fair election (excluding the standard voter suppression inherent to the US) 79% of the time in their simulations."

lol

xp Since there wasn't a DNC bounce to speak of, that would be a legit story?

nor should one expect any kind of bounce of any kind from convention anymore

https://www.vox.com/2020/8/30/21407646/trump-approval-poll-rnc-abc-news-ipsos

the problem with the bounce articles is half of them are based on one poll measured before and after, and not aggregate polls. so there's like 60 articles that say "NO TRUMP BOUNCE", another 60 that say "WOW TRUMP BOUNCE", and then another 60 that are just Oliver North's biography

https://youtu.be/rPpuHY7Ejt4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPpuHY7Ejt4

uh oh

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-elections-bets/trump-overtakes-biden-as-favorite-to-win-in-november-betfair-exchange-idUSKBN25T1L6

largely due to 3 huge bets placed for Trump

always confused by people caring what the bookies odds are. punters aren't an informed public

i'd put my money on the following: biden wins, and trump has him rubbed out before he can be sworn in, thereby staying in office / outrunning the statute of limitations

odds have a profit margin baked in and don't represent the true probability of an outcome. that matters little in cases where one candidate is an overwhelming favorite, but matters a lot when it's a close race.

the more concerning trend is that Biden is underperforming in his polling in battleground states vs 2016 (and of course we know how that turned out). but it's also September. remember there was that period of time where Romney looked like he might have leapfrogged Obama after the first debate, and it reverted back to the mean.

if my experience with poker players is any indication most of 'em are conservative and pissed off they didn't see the Trump thing coming in 2016 when they could've gotten serious odds. since so much of this is following 2016 I think a lot of people feel "yeah Biden's ahead in the polls but the smart money's on Trump", plus...you know he's gonna cheat so you got an extra ace in the hole

if Biden died before being sworn-in and after the electors voted, by law, the Vice-President elect (Harris) would be the President.

right now would probably be the best odds you're going to get on Biden so if ya wanna bet Biden maybe do it now? Trump, you probably missed that window.

yeah I seriously think it would be smart to put as much as possible on Biden right now given those odds but it's kinda like betting on your own team in sports, it's not gonna make a win feel that much better but it'll make a loss feel way way worse

I was waiting for someone to post that link.

if Biden died before being sworn-in and after the electors voted, by law, the Vice-President elect (Harris) would be the President.

not if trump and barr frame harris for the hit

Then wouldn't it be President Pelosi?

she masterminded the whole thing

amazing that a huge portion of the GOP got overran by THIS fucking guy

https://i.imgur.com/CGtmefT.jpg?1

not really feeling the CLUE sequel ITT

https://clickamericana.com/wp-content/uploads/Captain-Kangaroo.jpg

Dude looks confederate af, it's kind of remarkable.

(xps)

looks more like pedophile dazzle camouflage to me

There's that. He also looks like the sort of guy who'd sell really bad acid at a jam band festival.

my understanding is that if the election result is unresolved on Jan 20, the Speaker of The House is sworn in, and remains president until it is resolved

...but in the event the results *cannot* be resolved (by when I'm not sure?), the House votes on the next president, not by total member votes but by state

8chan dude reminds me of Elmer Woodard, who represented nazi Chris Cantwell after Charlottesville.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/DVe5RxDCDj0NCFC0_ovY_maqn5nI-eyQnu1JkrgzZ4CkY93MeMX_9x5946LhRtwu5oS40v3DL5mvG7Hkor2FLmzzLR3hTs-N9Q7kwSMm7nSaeTyGkuCV8BuUSb9f-ErWI6jXc18PO56tyR_4z2STd3zYqCNTIjL1Lo4NkecBldV-fTkbjC1-CW_3ypYTo5E0vD3RiX3DI3xTPhJuAL88MEhm6dm6cb4rWjO1

if the *election result* is unresolved, yea. but if it returned a winner, and that winner is Biden, and the electors have voted for him, he is he President-elect, and succession goes to VP-elect after him if he dies before inauguration.

if he dies before the Electors vote, it's a bit more nebulous, but I believe I read that they just vote for the 'replacement' that the party trudges up.

and if by 1/21 there is still a dispute, a three-man sack race will be held on consecutive Sundays

I’m pretty sure that in that event whichever general can commandeer the largest chunk of our nuclear arsenal becomes President.

great, Reagan's corpse gets a third term

Interesting nuance in this @nicolenarea interview with @ChuckRocha:

He's less worried about the Biden campaign ignoring Latino voters and more that outside PACs are not spending nearly enough messaging to that cohort.https://t.co/j3piRKIFmZ

— Dylan Scott (@dylanlscott) September 9, 2020

Two polls today show Joe Biden badly struggling with Latinos in Florida. That's a big problem. I talked to Dem strategist @steveschale, a veteran of Florida politics, who explained what the problem is and what the road ahead entails. Much work to be done:https://t.co/v5OjQXcDEx

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 8, 2020

yeah, the splits from a recent FL poll jumped out at me for the same reason. for latinos, i think it was 48% trump to 46% biden? compared to about 65% clinton in 2016. it had to read it like 3 times to make sure that was right