rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Whether the reporters themselves like him secretly—they probably don’t. But like it or not they’re in the Trump business now.

Their boss is definitely in the Trump business

This was not a coincidence. Zucker is a big sports fan and from the early days of the campaign had spoken at editorial meetings about wanting to incorporate elements of ESPN’s programming into CNN’s election coverage. “The idea that politics is sport is undeniable, and we understood that and approached it that way,” he told me. Toward that end, the network built “pregame” sets outside debate halls with excited crowds in the background and created a temporary rooftop studio for the final weeks of the campaign with sweeping views of the White House and the Washington Monument. An on-screen countdown clock ticked down the days (then hours) to Nov. 8. Trump, the trash-talking (and trash-Tweeting) underdog who inspired raw, powerful feelings among supporters and detractors alike, was the ideal subject for this narrative framework.

...

Zucker lives about 10 blocks from Trump Tower, and three of his four children still attend the same Upper West Side private school as Trump’s youngest son, Barron. “I like Donald,” Zucker told me, before quickly correcting himself. “I guess I shouldn’t call him that. I like President Trump. He’s affable. He’s funny.” He paused, searching for another adjective.

“He’s good company?” I suggested.

“He’s good company,” Zucker agreed. (The White House declined to comment on the record for this article.)

joe biden needs another schtick besides hiding and being senile.

― treeship., Monday, August 17, 2020 2:28 PM (yesterday)

can we stop with the "senile" crap already

He should stop being senile then.

three of his four children still attend the same Upper West Side private school as Trump’s youngest son, Barron

My first thought: Barron lives in DC and goes to school in MD right? Then, never mind, that article is from 2017.

xp he's just regular old

you should save "senile" for the real thing, if and when it happens, because otherwise people like me will be like "yeah but you were calling him senile back when he was just regular old"

old like we all will be sooner than we think

you should save "senile" for the real thing, if and when it happens, because otherwise people like me will be like "yeah but you were calling him senile back when he was just regular old"

― The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone)

senility gatekeeping olympics

post-Covid athletics looking truly dire

i'll still take it over gridiron football

Starting to become more nervous about this

why's that?

i mean, i understand why in general *gestures at world*

i just meant, is there anything more specific that happened?

Polls will tighten, their side is louder than hours.

Let's get our people out. That's all we can do.

er, ours

45's going to win if COVID reproduction rates are better than they were at their worst. he's going to lose if we're in a second or third or kalita wave. you heard it here first.

i'm feeling good about things, to be honest. he's really letting his true colors show, this time. he was in 2016, but somehow in a way that enabled people like my cousin to say things like "let's just give him a chance!" on election day in response to me being depressed that we just elected an openly white supremacist. this time around? well, this time it's an open white supremacist, and yeah, it's really sad that 80-90% of the GOP is cool with that, and that another 30-40% probably thinks it's a very good thing that should be promoted more. but that other 10-20% of shitty people that voted for him last time that are either burned out, ashamed, or bored with the entire trump project - that's going to lose him the election, even as the loud maga dipshits appear to the naked eye to be more or less the same as last time around

Seems like the weight of a potential long-term economic depression is going to have a bigger impact than COVID numbers to me.

He'd sign whatever the Democrats put in front of him for a stimulus IMO but the Senate GOP won't do it for their own reasons, the Democrats have no reason to cave in since prolonging the pain hurts the GOP... but if there's no stimulus before November, the Senate flips and Trump loses, they're going to do everything they can to destroy the economy before January.

further destroy*

Yeah, I'm more terrified about Biden Dems thinking, "Yep! It's time for austerity!" As I read Reaganland, I don't underestimate this instinct.

on the democratic side, you've got at a _bare minimum_ almost everyone who voted for clinton, plus people who got directly fucked over by trump, plus some of those sad trump 2016 voters who want to make things right, plus a bunch of people who didn't vote in 2016 because they thought clinton was going to win (and didn't understand or care that there were also many other down-ballot races that needed their vote) and got a wake-up call from whatever the fuck has happened outside since january 2017, plus some kids downs down the street that i'm paying to fraudulently vote in the elect on behalf of the democrats.

Yeah, I'm more terrified about Biden Dems thinking, "Yep! It's time for austerity!" As I read Reaganland, I don't underestimate this instinct.

same here. it seems very, very likely, almost inevitable. you can see Chuck Todd asking the question, you can see Chuck Schumer (or whoever) giving the answer. i caught myself worrying about the 2024 election earlier today (imagining this scenario, that the democrats had just fucking FAILED during biden's term as once again america's collective amnesia arises to blur the edges of the trump nightmare)

but, one terrible thing at a time

Oh 2022 is going to suck, because Biden/Pelosi/Schumer are not capable of doing what needs to be done.

what did people do in the 70s when the 60s dream was dying and watergate was happening, the national hangover? everyone just kind of woke up, took a shower and drank a bunch of coffee, took a giant shit and then drank more coffee and took another shit, then finished up work and took a nap when they got home, finally feeling awake again around dinner time? i think we're probably looking at something like that

Feel like that’s a foregone conclusion tbh.

what did people do in the 70s when the 60s dream was dying and watergate was happening, the national hangover? everyone just kind of woke up, took a shower and drank a bunch of coffee, took a giant shit and then drank more coffee and took another shit, then finished up work and took a nap when they got home, finally feeling awake again around dinner time? i think we're probably looking at something like that

― The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone),

They drank coffee?

they did. and it was folgers

My basic thinking is that since Jan. 2017 Trump has done nothing that would win him any new support, while actively doing hundreds of things that tend to drive people away, even if only a few at a time. It is clear he has a fanatically loyal base and it is sizeable, but it is also somewhat measurable through his approval ratings as roughly 42% of the adult population.

His biggest problem is that he is so fervently hated by everyone not in his 42% base that the fanaticism cuts both ways equally. People are desperate to vote against him. His only real chance is to suppress voter participation by any and every means he and his allies can devise, sow as much chaos as he can, and hope he can steal some big swing states that way.

Folgers. Mountain grown.

The richest, most aromatic coffee in the world

(Narrator: actually ALL coffee is mountain-grown)

My basic thinking is that since Jan. 2017 Trump has done nothing that would win him any new support, while actively doing hundreds of things that tend to drive people away, even if only a few at a time. It is clear he has a fanatically loyal base and it is sizeable, but it is also somewhat measurable through his approval ratings as roughly 42% of the adult population.

His biggest problem is that he is so fervently hated by everyone not in his 42% base that the fanaticism cuts both ways equally. People are desperate to vote against him. His only real chance is to suppress voter participation by any and every means he and his allies can devise, sow as much chaos as he can, and hope he can steal some big swing states that way.

This is exactly where I am, and have been roughly since the 2018 midterms. That election, as well as every special election since Trump assumed the presidency, shows that buyer's remorse is actually a thing, and that negative partisanship is very much a thing.

There's nothing really Trump can do to win the election except voter suppression/sowing chaos. But there's plenty Biden can do to lose it!

I admit the surplus of Trump signs fucking everywhere right now is making me nervous

that said I basically agree with Aimless's take however I do worry about people who didn't vote in 2016 who have been radicalized thanks to Facebook

Banking on increased turnout among Democratic leaning 2016 non-voters is incredibly optimistic. Those are the people being cast into homelessness, who are going hungry right now - as the economic crisis continues, those are the people who are going to become increasingly discouraged about having any connection to polite society.

I feel like I have to explain this every time I post even a mild question or criticism pertaining to Biden: I don't hate him, and I really want him and Harris to win.

There was an excerpt circulating from an ABC interview that aired tonight where he was asked if he'd completely shut down the economy again if advised to do so by doctors/scientists; he said he would, absolutely.

Obviously, that is the intelligent, responsible, humane answer. If that'd been done from the outset--and not rescinded so early when it finally was--things would be 10,000% better today.

But politically, he may want to get some old-fashioned dissembling into that answer. There's a part of me that fears there are enough people out there who are basically ready to continue playing Russian Roulette rather than shut down the economy again; there are two primal fears at odds with each other, and the economic one may overrule the other. I don't think that's true, but the nagging possibility is there.

just spitballing but maybe the smart thing to say would be "we'll pay people to stay home"

I don't think he could give another answer even if that one isn't actually true (I don't think it would be). The tribal identities surrounding COVID demand that he say he'd do the safest/most science recommended thing, whatever that thing is.

I know I shouldn't bother, but:

the smart thing to say would be "we'll pay people to stay home"

Thoughtful, reasonable, makes me rethink what I posted.

just spitballing but maybe the smart thing to say would be "we'll pay people to stay home"

"God, you're stupid"--four extra words that sum up, in contrast to what I enjoy about ILX, what I hate about ILX.

If he'd said, "If things look as dismal as they do now, I'll shut down restaurants but pay everyone a living wage," he'd be cool.

"If things haven't actually worsened in the next five months, you should probably all be starting suicide cults. Jack."

to hell with suicide cults. instead, form tontines, so one lucky survivor can claim the meager belongings of all the unlucky ones

four extra words that sum up, in contrast to what I enjoy about ILX, what I hate about ILX.

hey clemenza. to me, the flat statement reads like I'm speaking from a position of knowing authority, perhaps even exhibiting a kind of snottiness which other posters excoriate me for their perception of on these boards. "just spitballing" is not a construction intended to confer any criticism on your thoughts or their construction at all - I was commenting on Biden's expression, not yours - rather a flag of chit-chat meant to be less strident than even "I think" or "I reckon."

In summary, ILX is a land of contrasts.

I don't even know what spitballing is IRL 😞

the spitballing metaphor has to do with an idle pastime

Appreciate that. I took it as sarcastic framing of something you thought was so obvious only someone exceedingly stupid would need it explained. I can be thin-skinned and misread things.

Spitballing is when you accidentally kill a baseball player IIRC

they did. and it was folgers

Fill it to the rim.

WITH BRIM.

I do think that Biden should say "we'll pay people to stay home" when asked btw. And if asked "how will you pAy fOr iT," to pledge that his administration will crack down on massive corporate fraud and tax cheats, and return stolen money to the people. Trump voters are demonstrably attracted to vote for someone who says that they'll punish Mysterious Powerful Figures who are Ripping The Voters Off; this would have the twin benefits of also attracting votes from sensible people, and being able to come true.

i hope everyone here is ready for 10:30 tonight

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/schedule-of-speakers-for-the-2020-republican-national-convention

hmm