Democratic (Party) Direction

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like, you think all those climate change alarmists are going to make me admit i was wrong about global cooling? well...we'll have to see. we will have to see...

*15 years pass*

it's 2020 now...and we will still have to see...we will just have to see...

The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Monday, 17 August 2020 23:34 (four years ago) link

There's a subreddit devoted to these people, called r/Trumpgret:

https://i.imgur.com/v2issJV.jpg

https://i.redd.it/ohuzlf9vubn01.png

https://i.redd.it/ji6y2h8qaqq31.png

https://i.redd.it/2t63fiwsbkw41.jpg

pomenitul, Monday, 17 August 2020 23:35 (four years ago) link

lol @ this one too:

https://i.redd.it/wdnjwyolb8s31.jpg

pomenitul, Monday, 17 August 2020 23:37 (four years ago) link

on the same tip, this twitter account is either soothing or maddening: https://twitter.com/trump_regrets?lang=en

Wayne Grotski (symsymsym), Monday, 17 August 2020 23:38 (four years ago) link

ha this is reassurance porn

I think maybe I shld start my day with these for the next few months

singular wolf erotica producer (Hadrian VIII), Monday, 17 August 2020 23:41 (four years ago) link

I mean it’s just a bunch of IRANIAN BOTS but fantasy is healthy

singular wolf erotica producer (Hadrian VIII), Monday, 17 August 2020 23:44 (four years ago) link

reassurance porn is a great term for it

Wayne Grotski (symsymsym), Monday, 17 August 2020 23:52 (four years ago) link

so is AOC still just getting a minute?

unpaid intern at the darvo institute (Simon H.), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 00:51 (four years ago) link

did they have a target audience in mind for this convention opening video, or are we just supposed to let it wash over us without feeling any emotion like i am?

trapped out the barndo (crüt), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 01:06 (four years ago) link

Isn't that the general idea? I've never known anybody of any age who watches conventions.

I'm watching Murder, She Wrote, in which Jessica Fletcher delivered a spectacular monologue.

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 01:15 (four years ago) link

To be fair he only needs like 80,000 of them to change the outcome of the election. it doesn’t seem like the easiest way to win votes when there are millions of people who didn’t vote last time, but it’s not a long shot.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek)

this is a... generous intepretation of the facts, given that there are certain confounding variables here

for instance, the entirety of the last four fucking years

Kate (rushomancy), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 01:58 (four years ago) link

How do exactly?

Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 02:01 (four years ago) link

How *so

Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 02:01 (four years ago) link

well, for instance, i voted for hillary clinton in 2016 in indiana. in the intervening four years i have moved to oregon and i plan on abstaining from voting for president in 2020.

that's one data point. how many people were in america in 2016? how many of them voted, and who did they vote for? how many of them have died? how many people became eligible to vote between 2016 and 2020?

now, i guess you can discard a lot of that data, because fortunately for pollsters votes in most states don't actually count towards determining the outcome of an election. indiana wasn't a decisive state in 2016, oregon isn't going to be a decisive state in 2020. so really, you only have to determine all of this individual data in the so-called "swing states". assuming you can correctly predict what those states will be.

how does one generalize this data into predicting an election? what tools do we have to do this? what models do we have to do this? ok, everybody predicted strongly that clinton would win in 2016, and everybody was wrong. do we know why everybody was wrong? do we know how we can correct for those errors? (i believe the answer to this one is "no".)

how do we factor in the structural changes that have occurred in america since 2016? how do we factor in the effects of the incumbent openly and blatantly trying to rig the election on turnout? how do we factor in the knowledge that election results in at least one state have been hacked, and that no safeguards have been put in place to prevent them from being hacked again?

there are a lot of things that are uncertain right now. one of the few things that's not uncertain: biden can't "change the outcome of the election", because he's not running in the 2016 election, because it is not in fact 2016, although he doesn't really appear to have any knowledge or understanding of this.

Kate (rushomancy), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 02:33 (four years ago) link

I wouldn't overthink it. There is clearly a national majority of voting Americans who are more liberal than conservative. That majority is not perfectly distributed and its concentration in certain places puts it at a disadvantage in a system that gives weight to real estate as well as population. Still, the gaps aren't as vast as they seem. I live in a massively red state, but you actually only have to flip one vote in 10 to make it a draw. My state will certainly stay red this year, but there are lots of states that are totally winnable to change the 2016 result.

I know that anxiety is not a voluntary state, but the best reason I know not to overthink the possible results of a national election which is months away is that such thinking will not alter those results. I would suggest that, rather than worrying about how the variables and unknowns will eventually sift down, it makes more sense to project your situation under each result (there are only two which are necessary to consider as likely) and try to imagine your own best course of action under each result.

This is not to say imagining what to do would be simple or easy, but it would return the problem to a dimension where your thoughts and desires matter to the outcome, whereas your personal desires cannot affect how 180,000,000 people will vote in roughly 55 different jurisdictions.

the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 03:44 (four years ago) link

this is an oversimplification, but I look at it like this: the states that went for HRC are probably not swinging over to Trump in November. The 2016 election was won by extremely thin margins in a small number of swing states. An increase in Democratic turnout plus some defections from those MOR voters would be enough to turn those decisive states over to Biden. Biden is currently polling ahead in a number of states beyond those 2016 swing states.

The electoral college is essentially gerrymandering writ large. It gives Republicans a natural advantage, but it rests upon extremely thin margins, and falls apart in the face of enthusiasm, even negative enthusiasm.

Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 03:51 (four years ago) link

it makes more sense to project your situation under each result (there are only two which are necessary to consider as likely) and try to imagine your own best course of action under each result.

this makes sense to me. it's an interesting question, the idea of believing in something and believing that your actions make a significant difference on the the outcome. it's difficult because yes, your actions do make a difference, at some multiple of an infinitesimal scale. what you think and do and act out publicly does have a small effect. but on the whole, unless you're some named figure in the media, your actions don't amount to much. which means it does just come down to your reaction (possibly a binary) to the results, rather than what you did to change the results

The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 03:52 (four years ago) link

Seems like volunteering at your local polling precinct could be a meaningful action this time around.

Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 03:53 (four years ago) link

Dang

No I’m sorry but they did not address racism. They showed a lot of beautiful pictures of POC and made references to BLM, but there was not one mention of an actual policy to help end systemic racism. It’s like binge watching a Marriott commercial.

— Marianne Williamson (@marwilliamson) August 18, 2020

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 03:55 (four years ago) link

Local races are very susceptible to one's taking personal action to sway the result. I've often phone banked for state and local races and always felt good about it. It is also reasonable to think that state, county and municipal governments have an even greater impact on one's local area than the presidency.

the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 03:58 (four years ago) link

I used to think that

Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 04:09 (four years ago) link

sometimes the roulette ball falls into 0 or 00

the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 04:16 (four years ago) link

To be fair he only needs like 80,000 of them to change the outcome of the election. it doesn’t seem like the easiest way to win votes when there are millions of people who didn’t vote last time

I think the people who run the Convention had the same thought which is presumably why there was 3 minutes of Republicans saying "even Republicans like me can't resist Joe, a decent god-fearing man!" and 15 of Michelle Obama saying "I get why you didn't vote last time and I am asking you to vote this time." I don't know if it'll work, but the potential non-voters are for sure who she was targeting (I would say this about Sanders too)

Guayaquil (eephus!), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 04:28 (four years ago) link

the open, caring vision of change we need

https://i.imgur.com/gYeOLKv.jpg

healthy butts on perfect cocaine (sic), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 04:49 (four years ago) link

i don't understand. shouldn't that info be presented on a squarespace grid for my viewing pleasure?

The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 04:53 (four years ago) link

*massive fart*

the aesthetic directions of the modern political movements are pathetic

The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 04:54 (four years ago) link

the wheel of progress grinds ever onward

August 13, 1996: John Kasich and Susan Molinari address Republican National Convention.

August 17, 2020: John Kasich and Susan Molinari address Democratic National Convention. pic.twitter.com/OC2skT8MDq

— Howard Mortman (@HowardMortman) August 18, 2020

healthy butts on perfect cocaine (sic), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 05:06 (four years ago) link

Eighty days and counting into protests against the sanctioned murder of George Floyd, it's good to see that they've had a thrilling influence on the makeup of speakers the DNC chooses to represent itself

https://i.imgur.com/ubgUMrX.jpg

healthy butts on perfect cocaine (sic), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 05:46 (four years ago) link

Ok, Laura Ingraham and George Zimmerman speaking at the DNC is a bridge too far. C'mon man!

Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 12:46 (four years ago) link

Can’t watch these outtakes enough times pic.twitter.com/9VmfCPh0Oy

— Christopher Cadelago (@ccadelago) August 18, 2020

but also fuck you (unperson), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 13:16 (four years ago) link

Michelle's line that Trump's 'in over his head' is a good way to take it in a Facebook convo with a relative imo. it wouldn't provoke the same kind of immediate knee-jerk defensiveness. it's like... yr boy.. he's not up to it.

Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 14:00 (four years ago) link

As ever, laying bare his weakness and incompetence and cowardice instead of painting him as 'evil' is the surest course of action, rhetorically speaking.

pomenitul, Tuesday, 18 August 2020 14:04 (four years ago) link

very very much agree.

however, it would have a lot more punch if the alternative wasn’t uh Joe Biden

A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Chooglin (will), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 14:06 (four years ago) link

Michelle's line that Trump's 'in over his head' is a good way to take it in a Facebook convo with a relative imo.

counterpoint: nuh uh, she's over her head

President Donald Trump had more to say on Tuesday about former first lady Michelle Obama’s speech at the 2020 Democratic National Convention the night before, during which she said Trump was “clearly in over his head.”

“No, she was over her head,” Trump told reporters during a White House event celebrating the 100th anniversary of the 19th Amendment.

The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 14:56 (four years ago) link

Literally "I know you are but what am I." What a rhetorical wizard this guy is (said Chris Cilizza, to no one).

but also fuck you (unperson), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 15:09 (four years ago) link

No puppet, no puppet, you're the puppet.

jaymc, Tuesday, 18 August 2020 15:20 (four years ago) link

some of you may be tempted to observe that the president is clearly a 5-year-old child. beware, as this is one of the first symptoms of Trump Derangement Syndrome

The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 15:27 (four years ago) link

You're just saying that because you can't handle winning THIS big.

pomenitul, Tuesday, 18 August 2020 15:28 (four years ago) link

Marianne Williamson otm, but then "policy" is inside baseball For Lifers Only

brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 15:33 (four years ago) link

POC are automatic Lifers, whether they like it or not

the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 16:05 (four years ago) link

Lol I definitely did not mean to imply that an effective strategy for countering Facebook relatives was quoting Michelle Obama with attribution

Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 16:13 (four years ago) link

The electoral college is essentially gerrymandering writ large. It gives Republicans a natural advantage, but it rests upon extremely thin margins, and falls apart in the face of enthusiasm, even negative enthusiasm.

― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles)

this was exactly why everybody told me hillary clinton would win

Kate (rushomancy), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 16:48 (four years ago) link

Except voters were very unenthusiastic.

But again, we are talking about very low margins that could go one way or another based on small changes to sentiment.

Best I can say is, there's no sure thing, Donald Trump still has a decent statistical chance to win, just like he did in 2016, but at the moment, things look favorable for Biden.

Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 16:57 (four years ago) link

I saw a poll according to which 58% of Biden voters will be voting against Trump rather than for Biden. This is a good thing as far as I can tell – positive support may wane, but seething hatred for orange fuckface is eternal.

pomenitul, Tuesday, 18 August 2020 16:59 (four years ago) link

I saw a poll according to which 58% of Biden voters will be voting against Trump rather than for Biden. This is a good thing as far as I can tell – positive support may wane, but seething hatred for orange fuckface is eternal.

― pomenitul

according to the latest polling 42% of Biden voters are fucking liars

Kate (rushomancy), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 17:05 (four years ago) link

Biden inspires no passion ANYWHERE. There are no lawn signs or bumper stickers for him because people are, at the absolute best, moderately satisfied with him. This will be his undoing when he loses in November to the syphilitic nightmare that is a Donald J. Trump

beamish13, Tuesday, 18 August 2020 17:11 (four years ago) link

A blank slate is not necessarily a bad thing if your sole aim is to defeat Trump.

pomenitul, Tuesday, 18 August 2020 17:13 (four years ago) link

Biden is at best a political Band-Aid when the wound clearly needs major suturing. He’ll get kneecapped by a Republican House and Senate as well, and eventually get replaced by Trump 2.0 before the world essentially ends in 2050

beamish13, Tuesday, 18 August 2020 17:17 (four years ago) link


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