outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

look at those single days with nearly 0 new UK cases around the beginning of July, for example.

I've looked in four places including on the official gov.net coronavirus page and it's saying 538 new cases on all of them.

I've looked in four places including on the official gov.net coronavirus page and it's saying 538 new cases on all of them.

Nate Silver is getting sneaky with his viral marketing

anyone who said this was going away in march should volunteer imo

125 scholars, from epidemiologists to philosophers & incl'g 15 Nobelists, call for challenge trials of #Covid_19 vaccines (volunteers agree to intentional exposure to virus, making efficacy--or not--apparent faster). Many interesting names: https://t.co/5x6M7Qq1HQ

— sharon begley (@sxbegle) July 15, 2020

i would volunteer tbh

16. Peter Singer, Ira W. DeCamp Professor of Bioethics in the University Center for Human Values, Princeton University
99. Steven Pinker, Johnstone Family Professor of Psychology, Harvard University

wait a second - are these two ever in the same room? i just assumed there was a clark kent thing going on with them, this could be big if they're actually different people

i actually submitted a request to be a part of the phase 3 trials of one vaccine candidate. but that wouldn't involve being intentionally infected.

i am 1000% pro-vaccination, but i have the luxury of isolating for a while yet and i am not getting any vaccination that was developed on this compressed timeline, inside the US, while trump is president and has a political interest in cutting corners, unless it is also recommended by the german and south korean equivalents of the FDA.

that reads like one of those tweets from kamala harris about tax credits for people who meet 18 conditions.

honestly thanatos drives my desire to volunteer

i'd be less eager if there was zero chance of dying

California shatters record with more than 11,000 new coronavirus cases in one day https://t.co/oELya6TigN

— Los Angeles Times (@latimes) July 15, 2020

pish, don't even try it CA, we got the record books on lock

The California numbers are incredibly skewed by Los Angeles County. Despite being just 1/4th of the state's population, more than 1/3 of the state's COVID cases are there, and over 1/2 of the fatalities. It's getting pretty insane, a smaller scale of rampant spreading we were seeing with NYC in March/April.

population density in being related to infectious disease transmission shockah

That Graun graph is still showing like that (also 138 deaths rather than 85) despite the figure in blue at the top of the page showing 538

population density in being related to infectious disease transmission shockah

― the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 5:36 PM (twenty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

there's literally no evidence that the relationship between population density and covid-19 incidence is causal fwiw. population density may also correlate with some other stuff that is causally related to covid transmission (inequality/race mainly), and there's some evidence that crowding (which is different density, because it's possible to build up, i.e. manhattan has low crowding) may be causally related too. but there's no evidence that, all things being equal, a place with a higher population density has a faster covid transmission rate.

if you don't believe me, look up the population density in hong kong, singapore, seoul, etc.

if the lesson we take from this is "cities are bad", we're fucked.

aren't hong kong, singapore, seoul, etc. places that implimented a plan and had broad compliance?

seems common sense that more people closer together would make for higher infection rate, since the disease is spread by...people...in close proximity

whatever the case, the notion ≠ "cities are bad"

oh I want people to think cities are bad so they move to the suburbs and I can afford to move in

Over here it's been less about population density and more about the number of people living in the same household and the working conditions they're pushed into.

aren't hong kong, singapore, seoul, etc. places that implimented a plan and had broad compliance?

exactly? the reason LA and NYC and other cities in the US are getting hit hard is not density. it might be a third order effect (behind competence of/compliance with the response and inequality) but honestly there's no evidence even for that!

if you want another example: compare the covid rate in manhattan with that in the other four boroughs.

it does seem like common sense, but like i say, there is no evidence that it is true.

xp yup, home occupancy and local industry does seem to have a strong effect.

(and it's not splitting hairs to differentiate between home occupancy and population density if you're trying to figure out a rational response after this is over)

I was thinking the best measure would be comparing densely populated areas to sparsely populated ones, with a control of similar containment protocols.

That some densely populated cities are relatively unaffected compared to others says much less about population density than aboutt containment measures

That some densely populated cities are relatively unaffected compared to others says much less about population density than aboutt containment measures

well, it tells you population density is less important than the other differences between those cities, and that if the lesson we take is "we should move to the suburbs" then it won't help.

population density in being related to infectious disease transmission shockah

― the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 2:36 PM (one hour ago)

It's only the 3rd most dense county in California, only 58% as dense as San Francisco.
http://www.usa.com/rank/california-state--population-density--county-rank.htm

San Francisco has 50 COVID deaths in the past 20 weeks*, which is what LA had just yesterday by lunchtime.

(*0 in the last 30 days!)

I was thinking the best measure would be comparing densely populated areas to sparsely populated ones, with a control of similar containment protocols.

this has been done. i'll try to dig up the studies.

but the short version again: look at the five boroughs of new york city.

I def hope some people move to the suburbs so I can live in their houses

good lessons that there is evidence for:

don't live 10 people to a dwelling
make working in a factory/warehouse/abbatoir safer
have a competent civil service and government
have a population that trusts its government
don't tie healthcare to employment

bad lessons there is no evidence for:

live in low population density settings

also that last one doesn't only not help. in a very real sense it will make the next pandemic more likely because it will accelerate the melting of the permafrost, releasing dormant viruses that we have no immunity for from the permafrost, killing us all haha fml.

lol

You can also see France as another counterexample to identifying population density and rona spread, in considering for example the regions of the Île-de-France (where Paris is located) and the Grand Est (where Strasbourg and Nancy are located). The former is much more dense but the latter had a proportionally worse outbreak.

Wait there’s a place in France called “Nancy”?

it's where they dance in fancy pants

Wait there’s a place in France called “Nancy”?

Yup, pronounced thusly:

https://forvo.com/word/nancy/#fr

I was ready to complain about French but that's not that egregious

Nancy the city is several centuries older than the English first name Nancy, so puh-leeze.

Interestingly, its German name is Nanzig (pronounced 'nan-tsikh', more or less).

does that mean we can call gdansk 'dancy'

gsluggo

Seed

You have chanced upon that city's true name. It is now yours for the taking.

2xp

Nancy is very nice! I was talking to my (American) parents about it recently, and said its name in the French way, and they had no idea what I was talking about until I sent a follow up email. It’s not well known outside of France I guess but it’s a métropole of 250,000 people. It has a UNESCO World Heritage Site! I am going to be spending a lot of time there so I can be your Nancy news network.

Fuck me, there are some idiots out there

A week ago, Melbourne law firm HWL Ebsworth said they were going to keep working out of their office rather than “blindly following the lead of others like a lemming".

They now have a cluster of 6 COVID-19 cases pic.twitter.com/zR58xdHN9B

— Jeremy Story Carter (@jstorycarter) July 16, 2020

jonathan meades has a good episode or two about the architecture of nancy iirc

Nancy the city is several centuries older than the English first name Nancy, so puh-leeze.

Which itself emerged from being a nickname for Ann

Like how you pronounce Annecy.

It is now yours for the taking.

ooh, i've always wanted my own baltic port

Turns out Sweden is ok. This is a bit ranty but there are a few truths on the discourse (at least the way it went in the UK)

Ok. The virus is pretty much over and done with in Sweden for now. Who knows if it will come back in September/October? (no one that's who, anyone who claims to know is an idiot) so I'll do a little rant because the discourse has been absurdly stupid

— grodaeu (@grodaeu) July 16, 2020

lol, that is very much not the consensus at all.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/sweden-says-latest-covid-immunity-not-enough-to-protect-citizens

Meanwhile, Sweden’s mortality rate per 100,000 is higher than that in the U.S.

^ seems pertinent