love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

Those Starmer numbers just look like honeymoon type numbers to me. And again, yes, it's unlikely Johnson will stay on anyway.

One thing that will drag Starmer down is the kind of in-fighting from the right of the party. RLB today, Red Ed tomorrow, and on it goes. Poor performance at council elections is another potential opportunity for them too.

That's assuming any of those things happen - if Labour do well in local elections (and the conditions might be right for them by then) then the right of the party will have to keep quiet whether they like what's going on or not, or risk looking like the churlish wreckers they are. Depends what happens in any by-elections along the way as well.

Who from the Labour right would they think they could replace him with? I find it hard to imagine a resurgence of interest in Dan Jarvis.

Pretty sure Jarv can do more press-ups than Starmzy.

"Who from the Labour right would they think they could replace him with?"

Doubt they are capable of reflection, which is also why they wouldn't stop either.

Those Starmer numbers just look like honeymoon type numbers to me. And again, yes, it's unlikely Johnson will stay on anyway.

It's almost impossible to imagine Boris serving a full term. "I do like that Keir fellow why I might even consider voting for him thats right!"

the right of the party will have to keep quiet whether they like what's going on or not, or risk looking like the churlish wreckers they are

It's only the difference between overt and covert. Having said that, covert is more difficult due to limited intelligence

Re: local councils. Unless the Labour (and let's face it, the Lab left) can organise opposition that really shifts public mood all you end up with is central govt shifting blame to local govt, and Lab councils. As with that story on Leicester.

This was a good piece on Ted Knight, who died recently and led Lambeth through the 80s.

https://newsocialist.org.uk/comrade-ted-knight-labour-left-and-local-government/

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/education-53348709?

Marxist Academies Unis are going to the wall then.

It’s not necessarily a bad idea if you have a) high-quality technical education and b) a manufacturing industry. We have little of either.

Could there be a way through Tories blaming Labour councils for cuts eg. ‘Tories think the public are stupid and don’t pay attention, but everyone knows it’s them setting budgets and expecting Labour councils to take the blame for the austerity they created.’

I don't think people do blame local councils for cuts anyway.

By and large, that is.

agree with SV the HE system could do with a major restructure, obv this won't be it

The problem for Labour is a psychological one as much as anything else - on the face of it there's potential mileage in the "they think you're stupid" line but I don't think it works because it implies that voters who switched from Labour to the Tories have been taken for idiots.

That's going to make a lot of them more likely to double on the decision next time round because the idea that you personally might have fucked up is humiliating. It's one reason why Remainers failed so unambiguously to covert many people to their cause post-2016.

good lord, that Reeves is fucking awful. Just the idea that there might be some element of harm reduction in putting on a nose peg and voting for a party that nominates her to talk over the entire shadow cabinet, fuck that shit. Previously you wouldn't need to ask if Labour would be raising taxes for 80k+ earners and Sir Kier committed to maintaining the redistributive agenda of the previous leader during the leadership election.

like some people are saying if they just keep replying "there won't be an election for years" without putting across to electorate what they are wanting to deliver, and just being completely neutral on every shitty tory policy, then gl because they'll need a lot of it!

Why is Reeves giving an opinion on everything from tax to education?

it's fucking ridiculous, she's the most right-wing reactionary and completely unpleasant member of the shadow cabinet, needs to be seen less of imo, and not undermining everyone else. Has Starmer lost faith with Dodds now? i wasn't paying attention but i saw some commenting she put in a very rocky performance the other day, others saying she did well.

I don't think it works because it implies that voters who switched from Labour to the Tories have been taken for idiots.

Is there much to suggest those particular voters would ever switch back? It seems unlikely, under any circumstances

How does anyone know that? You can't take as starting point the notion that they're gone for good, particularly in a pandemic and a recession of the type that hasn't taken place in hundreds of years. That just feels defeatist - you do what the Tories do and try and split them off.

Arguably you don't need all of them to switch back either - just enough of them.

Reeves is basically the Shadow Michael Gove and he has oversight over all Cabinet policies and speaks about whatever he wants. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather she was nowhere near the Shadow Cabinet, but the notion that she is constantly straying outside her brief isn't really correct.

when she is hogging all the top interview spots, Pestilence and Bahher + you don't even hear from the education sec/shadow chancellor first or even afterwards on matters pertaining to their briefs, then she is undermining them I'm afraid, whatever you say!

it's a fucking ridiculous title for a minister anyway, what century are we living in again?

I can't remember Jon Trickett doing this, in fact I can barely even remember him at all!

morelike shadow marauding nasty-tory-gobshit of the duchy of wankcaster, amirite?

Reeves was named in 2011 by The Guardian newspaper as being one of several MPs who employ unpaid interns, a practice that some maintain may breach the National Minimum Wage Act 1998.[31] The same year, The Independent named Reeves as a member of a group of new Labour MPs known as the "Nando's Five", the others being Luciana Berger, Jonathan Reynolds, Emma Reynolds and Chuka Umunna

omg she was an OG pre-CUK Nandos posse member.

How does anyone know that?

We can't know that, though there may be data out there on the number of double-switchers I believe the number of genuine swing voters declines with each election cycle? That being said, the red wall voters aren't swing voters as such, I would think there's a deeper psychological reason)

I don't see it as defeatist, more that those over-65 voters aren't the ones to be targeting. Don't target yesterdays voters and don't re-fight the last election

I'm kind of with you on that, I can see a lot of older voters who have voted Labour all their lives and who have bitten the bullet and voted Tory digging their heels in and carrying on voting Tory. Once you cross the rubicon and become a Tory scumbag you're admitting something about yourself to yourself. That said, I think younger voters can come back.

R is now estimated at 1.3 in London, that’s going well then

Younger voters can come back for sure, but the problem is there aren't enough of them in the constituencies that switched (Burnley, Blackpool). And the seats in which there are enough of them, didn't switch (Blackburn, Preston)

Absolutely.

Can't wait for the Starmzy youthquake, those polling stations will be rocking!

So the problem isn't so much young voters switching Lab-Con (did this really happen in significant number anyway?). Its that the important seats are all ageing. If we want younger voters to switch we might need them to switch back to living in Burnley

When I say younger I mean under, say, 40. I think the ones who lived through Thatcherism are probably a lost cause.

Broadly speaking I'm referring to non-retired

In this context, looking at the seats which had a percentage decline of working age residents (an ongoing long term one way process)

I believe the number of genuine swing voters declines with each election cycle?

not sure what this is based on but doesn't basically all analysis point to voter volatility reaching an all-time high over the last 10 years?

R is now estimated at 1.3 in London, that’s going well then
― stet, Sunday, July 12, 2020 6:23 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

We want to see more people back at work on the shop floor, in the office, wherever they can be.

“Of course we’re not calling for tax rises at the start of the worst recession in 300 years,” says Wes Streeting on a wealth tax on @timesradio. Decent model answer to this q that others in Labour have struggled to give.

— Patrick Maguire (@patrickkmaguire) July 12, 2020

Another fine member of the current Starmer shadow cabinet expanding further than Reeves did on the "big question" for the Labour Party of raising taxes on high earners.

shave your 'beard' patrick you fud

Why are Labour even talking to Times Radio? The stupid fucks. Well the leader does set a bad example

An unbelievably shit thing for Streeting to say. Oh don't let's beastly to the billionaires.

no it's a 'decent model answer' user nashwan

The other thing about Rachel Reeves is she's got a horrible voice, bring back Barry Gardiner!

Tbh I think obfuscating here is the right call, you don't want journalists to be able to bounce you into making policy announcements on the hoof and that was a blunder from Streeting. In general you want the Tories to go for tax rises first and Johnson tellingly is refusing to rule them out.

Even left-wing economists tend to believe you don't raise taxes or cut spending during a recession. In any case talking about tax rises now is falling into the 'how will you pay for it?' trap, which is the same one used to justify austerity. The Bank of England are currently printing hundreds of billions of pounds and borrowing is basically free, in fact in some cases investors are paying the government to take their money. This is all ridiculously premature even without considering the timing of the next election.

If you're going to raise money during a recession then taxing wealth is better than taxing income admittedly.

you are always saying don't fight previous election battles but think the 2015 style obfuscation that paralysed miliband labour and made it such a grotesque embarrassment will work this time. I don't think it will and would put money on it not working - if i had any!

if they are just going to keep reacting to the Tories in such a lukewarm fashion then they are doomed. They shouldn't even need to think about raising taxes on the 80k+ earners, the answer should be of course we fucking will but I can't be too specific now. You can't just keep obfuscating for months or years with the vague promise that your manifesto should be trusted because of the brand name.

am suffering insomnia to the point I've just gone out to clean some bird shit off my bin, and then I'm a watching a 2014 youtube of brillo pad interviewing Reeves and realising she is some kind of demon and mili-labour are even worse than I remembered them. And she is actually more horrible than I thought at the time, when I thought she was just a despicable Blairite, rather than pure evil. I think whoever decided she would a grand choice as shadow DWP really ought to be executed.

Former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron has accepted donations worth nearly £75,000 from an organisation whose director tweeted an article protesting against plans to outlaw gay conversion therapy.

Dr David Landrum also said Gillette had “lost my custom after the trans shaving ad”.

Tim Farron taking big money from dodgy right-wing christian fundamentalist bigots is it? Yesterday I was looking at some Britain Elects approval ratings and the odds on fave to be next LibDem leader Davey is on 14 points which is 7 lower than Farage!