love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

EXC 🚨 Keir Starmer has launched a boycott of Facebook in solidarity with Black Lives Matter

Leaked email says Labour backs "complete boycott" because of hate speech on FB, so no paid ads "at all"

Party spent >£1m on FB last year

Call made last week but not publicly announced

— Gabriel Pogrund (@Gabriel_Pogrund) July 11, 2020

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcrIBV3WsAIQyfi?format=jpg&name=medium

oh dear here we go again.

if only this was foreseeable

like as if Tories suddenly started losing sleep over the terrible working conditions they have done so much to stimulate in the last decade and blame it on local pc labour councils and the pigs!

Regulators In this country are so underfunded that an employer can expect to wait 500 years for a minimum wage inspection but, yeah, blame political correctness. https://t.co/epGTuEt5tF

— Aditya Chakrabortty (@chakrabortty) July 11, 2020

Gordon Brown warned allies of Sir Keir Starmer not to appoint Ed Miliband to the shadow cabinet after concluding that he was “unprincipled”, “useless” and had “trashed his achievements”, according to friends of the former prime minister.

Brown cautioned against Miliband’s improbable return to frontline politics earlier this year. His former aide and successor as leader has since been appointed shadow business secretary.

Two sources said Brown’s stance stemmed from Miliband’s decision to distance himself from his mentor’s record during his time as party leader and his failure to speak out against Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.

I already knew Broon was a thin skinned churlish bitter bastard, but lol what a doggedly bitter bastard he is!

grim times ahead when Sir Kier is going to be put under pressure by right wing Labour grandees to purge the shadow cabinet of "troublesome lefties" like poor old Ed is considered to be trouble by these horrible grim bastards that aren't happy enough that they got extremely lucrative jobs in top 20 hedge funds after leaving government.

Did anyone find Miliband's return improbable?

Not especially tbh, Stephen Bush pointed out that bringing Miliband back into the fold ensured the headlines for Starmer were 'Miliband' s Back' rather than 'Purge' and it seemed the sort of thing that might conceivably happen even under Corbyn.

Brown kept Miliband in his Cabinet for his entire Premiership so I'd take that with a pinch of salt. "Sources close" to Brown could include some of the worst people in Labour politics who have an axe to grind going back a decade.

Like Gordon Brown?

I've not read that Observer piece on Starmer so I don't know what his favourite colour is. But at least from the pic it looks like he's fixing to be 20 pints ahead, what a normal bloke!

Hmm something tells me Labour are not actually going to cede the entire Facebook playing field to Dominic Cummings for the next four years so let's see what happens here.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/11/competent-likeable-decisive-keir-starmer-beating-boris-johnson-on-all-counts?CMP

This doesn't actually look good for Johnson at all except for the section on the economy. Wonder how that would look if they asked the same questions for Sunak vs Starmer though. (Also I can still see the Tories doing something genuinely deranged like going for Priti Patel next time round).

tbf no-one knows who Annelise Dodds is

Those Starmer numbers just look like honeymoon type numbers to me. And again, yes, it's unlikely Johnson will stay on anyway.

One thing that will drag Starmer down is the kind of in-fighting from the right of the party. RLB today, Red Ed tomorrow, and on it goes. Poor performance at council elections is another potential opportunity for them too.

That's assuming any of those things happen - if Labour do well in local elections (and the conditions might be right for them by then) then the right of the party will have to keep quiet whether they like what's going on or not, or risk looking like the churlish wreckers they are. Depends what happens in any by-elections along the way as well.

Who from the Labour right would they think they could replace him with? I find it hard to imagine a resurgence of interest in Dan Jarvis.

Pretty sure Jarv can do more press-ups than Starmzy.

"Who from the Labour right would they think they could replace him with?"

Doubt they are capable of reflection, which is also why they wouldn't stop either.

Those Starmer numbers just look like honeymoon type numbers to me. And again, yes, it's unlikely Johnson will stay on anyway.

It's almost impossible to imagine Boris serving a full term. "I do like that Keir fellow why I might even consider voting for him thats right!"

the right of the party will have to keep quiet whether they like what's going on or not, or risk looking like the churlish wreckers they are

It's only the difference between overt and covert. Having said that, covert is more difficult due to limited intelligence

Re: local councils. Unless the Labour (and let's face it, the Lab left) can organise opposition that really shifts public mood all you end up with is central govt shifting blame to local govt, and Lab councils. As with that story on Leicester.

This was a good piece on Ted Knight, who died recently and led Lambeth through the 80s.

https://newsocialist.org.uk/comrade-ted-knight-labour-left-and-local-government/

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/education-53348709?

Marxist Academies Unis are going to the wall then.

It’s not necessarily a bad idea if you have a) high-quality technical education and b) a manufacturing industry. We have little of either.

Could there be a way through Tories blaming Labour councils for cuts eg. ‘Tories think the public are stupid and don’t pay attention, but everyone knows it’s them setting budgets and expecting Labour councils to take the blame for the austerity they created.’

I don't think people do blame local councils for cuts anyway.

By and large, that is.

agree with SV the HE system could do with a major restructure, obv this won't be it

The problem for Labour is a psychological one as much as anything else - on the face of it there's potential mileage in the "they think you're stupid" line but I don't think it works because it implies that voters who switched from Labour to the Tories have been taken for idiots.

That's going to make a lot of them more likely to double on the decision next time round because the idea that you personally might have fucked up is humiliating. It's one reason why Remainers failed so unambiguously to covert many people to their cause post-2016.

good lord, that Reeves is fucking awful. Just the idea that there might be some element of harm reduction in putting on a nose peg and voting for a party that nominates her to talk over the entire shadow cabinet, fuck that shit. Previously you wouldn't need to ask if Labour would be raising taxes for 80k+ earners and Sir Kier committed to maintaining the redistributive agenda of the previous leader during the leadership election.

like some people are saying if they just keep replying "there won't be an election for years" without putting across to electorate what they are wanting to deliver, and just being completely neutral on every shitty tory policy, then gl because they'll need a lot of it!

Why is Reeves giving an opinion on everything from tax to education?

it's fucking ridiculous, she's the most right-wing reactionary and completely unpleasant member of the shadow cabinet, needs to be seen less of imo, and not undermining everyone else. Has Starmer lost faith with Dodds now? i wasn't paying attention but i saw some commenting she put in a very rocky performance the other day, others saying she did well.

I don't think it works because it implies that voters who switched from Labour to the Tories have been taken for idiots.

Is there much to suggest those particular voters would ever switch back? It seems unlikely, under any circumstances

How does anyone know that? You can't take as starting point the notion that they're gone for good, particularly in a pandemic and a recession of the type that hasn't taken place in hundreds of years. That just feels defeatist - you do what the Tories do and try and split them off.

Arguably you don't need all of them to switch back either - just enough of them.

Reeves is basically the Shadow Michael Gove and he has oversight over all Cabinet policies and speaks about whatever he wants. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather she was nowhere near the Shadow Cabinet, but the notion that she is constantly straying outside her brief isn't really correct.

when she is hogging all the top interview spots, Pestilence and Bahher + you don't even hear from the education sec/shadow chancellor first or even afterwards on matters pertaining to their briefs, then she is undermining them I'm afraid, whatever you say!

it's a fucking ridiculous title for a minister anyway, what century are we living in again?

I can't remember Jon Trickett doing this, in fact I can barely even remember him at all!

morelike shadow marauding nasty-tory-gobshit of the duchy of wankcaster, amirite?

Reeves was named in 2011 by The Guardian newspaper as being one of several MPs who employ unpaid interns, a practice that some maintain may breach the National Minimum Wage Act 1998.[31] The same year, The Independent named Reeves as a member of a group of new Labour MPs known as the "Nando's Five", the others being Luciana Berger, Jonathan Reynolds, Emma Reynolds and Chuka Umunna

omg she was an OG pre-CUK Nandos posse member.

How does anyone know that?

We can't know that, though there may be data out there on the number of double-switchers I believe the number of genuine swing voters declines with each election cycle? That being said, the red wall voters aren't swing voters as such, I would think there's a deeper psychological reason)

I don't see it as defeatist, more that those over-65 voters aren't the ones to be targeting. Don't target yesterdays voters and don't re-fight the last election

I'm kind of with you on that, I can see a lot of older voters who have voted Labour all their lives and who have bitten the bullet and voted Tory digging their heels in and carrying on voting Tory. Once you cross the rubicon and become a Tory scumbag you're admitting something about yourself to yourself. That said, I think younger voters can come back.

R is now estimated at 1.3 in London, that’s going well then

Younger voters can come back for sure, but the problem is there aren't enough of them in the constituencies that switched (Burnley, Blackpool). And the seats in which there are enough of them, didn't switch (Blackburn, Preston)

Absolutely.

Can't wait for the Starmzy youthquake, those polling stations will be rocking!

So the problem isn't so much young voters switching Lab-Con (did this really happen in significant number anyway?). Its that the important seats are all ageing. If we want younger voters to switch we might need them to switch back to living in Burnley

When I say younger I mean under, say, 40. I think the ones who lived through Thatcherism are probably a lost cause.

Broadly speaking I'm referring to non-retired

In this context, looking at the seats which had a percentage decline of working age residents (an ongoing long term one way process)

I believe the number of genuine swing voters declines with each election cycle?

not sure what this is based on but doesn't basically all analysis point to voter volatility reaching an all-time high over the last 10 years?