outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Here’s the latest.

any thoughts on this? paywalled for me.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/05/covid-19-may-not-have-originated-china-elsewhere-emerged-asia/

Last week, Spanish virologists announced that they had found traces of the disease in samples of waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before coronavirus was seen in China.

Italian scientists have also found evidence of coronavirus in sewage samples in Milan and Turin in mid-December, many weeks before the first case was detected, while experts have found evidence of traces in Brazil in November....

"traces" sounds like fragments of genetic material having covid signatures, since a complete virus is not much more than genetic material packaged so that it can plug into receptors on a cell's surface and gain entry. seems like it would be difficult to make an airtight identification.

not helpful, as usual

you could subscribe and get something more helpful. possibly.

any thoughts on this? paywalled for me.

https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome

also we should be keeping in mind this is not the same strain we were discussing when originally debating all these measures—it's *more* contagious

It is the same though, the more contagious strain is the one that has been active in the US this whole time.

The study, published in the journal Cell, confirms earlier work suggesting the mutation had made the new variant of virus more common. The researchers call the new mutation G614, and they show that it has almost completely replaced the first version to spread in Europe and the US, one called D614.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/coronavirus-mutation-spread-study/index.html

cancelled my travel plans for July, not sure when I will travel again

fragments of genetic material having covid signatures

any covidvirus would have “covid signatures” which is the most hand-wavey thing, they specifically said covid-19

the version of the article I found (paywall, etc) said it was a not-yet-reviewed single study, which is suspect. seems kind of spurious until peer review so I’m skeptical but the guess that they found *a* covidvirus is as likely as contaminated or misdated samples

piece of shit

https://www.wtxl.com/news/local-news/fl-education-commissioner-requires-all-florida-school-districts-to-reopen-campuses-in-august

any covidvirus would have “covid signatures"

sorry, I was employing shorthand, in the same way the journalist writing the news story said:

Italian scientists have also found evidence of coronavirus in sewage samples

instead of saying specifically COVD-19 or SARS-CoV-2. These days there is only one coronavirus of consuming public interest and such shorthand gets used constantly by non-scientists such as myself. I apologize for "hand waving".

xp

Net approval for governor’s handling of COVID-19

Whitmer (MI) +18
Cooper (NC) +10
Evers (WI) +10
Wolf (PA) +6
DeSantis (FL) -6
Ducey (AZ) -26https://t.co/FC2GkgBVpA pic.twitter.com/SLlPllfkQc

— Change Research (@ChangePolls) July 4, 2020

xp that is helpful, thank you, good call

seriously starting to despair based on the evidence that 1) antibodies don't stay in your system very long, 2) asymptomatic people still seem to develop lung damage and 3) a vaccine may not be all that effective

It sounds like you’re reading too much. Try learning less for a while.

Like you know enough not to go to the bar, tune it out for a bit.

yeah was all good to just stay in and shut it down for a few months but school is starting & my wife has to go back to work, something's gotta give here

there seems to be a lot of optimism about a vaccine in the scientific community, idk where you're seeing that the vaccine won't be effective.

it seems likely that the eventual covid vaccine will be more similar to a flu vaccine than an MMR vaccine, offering immunity for a short time but needing regular boosters. we're gonna get used to hearing 'get your rona shot' at seasonally appropriate times.

The thing about antibodies not staying in the system for long appears to be for very mild or asymptomatic cases and from what I can see it's disputed. We simply don't know enough yet.

Always bear in mind that the median value of any single peer reviewed scientific study is zero

Yeah, I gotta say that stepping back from reading every article and poring over the data daily has done wonders for my not freaking out over things. Do I feel "better"? I don't know. But the bouts of hopelessness are spacing further and further apart.

yea idk it might just be I'm absorbing info from headlines which are increasingly pessimistic

just frustrated b/c things are really gonna hit the fan soon. I don't want to send my kid to school. There have been outbreaks in the neighborhood. one of my neighbors (who is 41) was hospitalized for over a week and nearly hit the ventilator. four of our day care teachers caught it. nobody here is taking any precautions, you see the occasional mask but that's it. my friends and family are starting to get frustrated with us cuz we don't wanna do anything. it just sucks

friend of mine in the atl region is thinking of having his high-school-aged kids take the year off because it's going to be so fucked.

all this talk about anti-bodies where is the pro-body community

dude, trump admin is hella pro-bodies

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxkQXK0kRd0

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.

“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”

"self-inflicted wound" doesn't seem like the right phrase - the thousands of people who died didn't choose that policy

This doesn’t bode well

It's not enough to crush the virus once. You have to keep crushing it. You have to remain vigilant.

Look at Israel. After doing a great job during the first wave, it tried to reopen too fast, and now its outbreak, in per capita terms, isn't far behind ours. pic.twitter.com/9zNbnQjgqJ

— Matt O'Brien (@ObsoleteDogma) July 7, 2020

Yes, I was just reading about Israel, I felt they were getting a bit too cocky there.

IMO cockiness is exactly what's called for here. You gotta show COVID who's boss. I mean, are we gonna let ourselves be pushed around and barred from eating in restaurants by something as small as a virus? Like fun we are.

I'm guessing New York is the bellwether here, given the severity of the outbreak there? It looks like the peak has past there but if it starts to climb rapidly again it means we're basically all fucked, it's either keep everything in stasis for an indefinite amount of time or risk losing control of the virus altogether.

Also apparently parts of Italy have reopened clubs again? That seems insane.

It looks like the peak has past there but if it starts to climb rapidly again it means we're basically all fucked

if it starts to climb rapidly again it will be largely due to the containment strategies NY puts in place (or doesn't put in place). rapid rises aren't inevitable - they're the result of public policy decisions and people deciding to get serious and wear a mask and be safe, or not.

plenty of governments could be doing much better, but i don't think there's a ton of evidence yet for that last sentence

I don't get the impression that New York is a closed ecosystem - it would have to bubble with parts of New Jersey for a start.

let's just kill everybody within 24 hours of a positive COVID test, that should get rid of it

actually delete that post, GOP politicians might see it and adopt it

more evidence of virus involvement in circulatory-related effects, specifically the coagulation process:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-complications-covid-von-willebrand-factor.html

Serbs storm parliament after virus lockdown announced

Guess what? Another asshole head of state is implicated.

BREAKING: Dozens of Florida hospitals have no available intensive care units, according according to data released Tuesday afternoon by the state. ICU beds are at capacity at 54 hospitals across 25 counties and 30 hospitals reported that their units were more than 90% full.

— Daniel Uhlfelder (@DWUhlfelderLaw) July 7, 2020

really would like to know which ones, esp with my father....

ahh great, that includes Orlando. well, hopefully nobody I know catches a disease, gets in a car wreck, or gets shot

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/HospitalBedsHospital

I am livid over this, not that I didn't know the hospital shortage was getting worse, but there are literally TWO fucking ICU beds in the county my fucking parents live in right now. and while this is happening, smug assholes are telling my teacher friends that if they don't want to return to work, they should find new jobs.

Every news bulletin has a public health expert on saying masks are a good idea. Can we get a mask order for Victoria? can we fuck.

Our second wave may be approaching, if the turds speak truly.

Faut-il s’alarmer ? Près de deux mois après la levée des principales mesures de confinement, la quantité de virus détectée dans les eaux usées parisiennes semble indiquer une légère reprise de l’épidémie depuis une quinzaine de jours, indiquent des sources concordantes.

Quand un malade va aux toilettes, le virus présent dans ses selles contamine les eaux qui les évacuent. Il est présent quelques jours après l’infection, avant l’apparition des premiers symptômes de la maladie. Les eaux usées « reflètent en partie l’état de santé de la population », souligne-t-on chez Eau de Paris, et représentent un indicateur épidémique « avancé » par rapport aux indicateurs « tardifs », comme les hospitalisations.

https://static.rogerebert.com/uploads/review/primary_image/reviews/great-movie-the-phantom-of-the-opera-1925/EB20041219REVIEWS08412190303AR.jpg