outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

the rest of us out here are trying to keep an eye on the useful information because there's no top-down guidance and we're trying to keep our optimistic relatives who think the state or federal government will provide them with useful information either at home or at the least masked up

I read just about all sources now, and where the emerging consensuses are. the WHO does seem a bit reactionary and the hand-washing thing does seem like a relic from the time it was believed to be mostly spread through fomites. and yet I still do the hand-washing thing.

though it does seem that the claims by the one Italian epidemiologist claiming the virus was "weakening" seems to have little to no support outside of his circle, with the current consensus being it's mutated to become more infectious, but not more dangerous in terms of the severity of the infection.

xxxpost Come on, I'm not gloating, that's really not fair.

Anyway, this all stems from my original misreading of that times article, which I thought suggested we were not doing enough because the transmissible virus could live a long time in the air, a la measles, not just that the WHO was not officially supporting many practices I though were already common knowledge, common sense and/or common practice.

The bigger question is even if the major public health orgs, the federal government, lots of state and local governments were all in agreement and clear about the best way to protect people, how do you then enforce those rules across a massive portion of the population? Let alone in a country where people literally take up arms to protect their right not to wear a mask?I don't know. Abbott in Texas seems to have gotten a little more serious about it there in recent weeks, how are Texans reacting to his softening positions?

moodles has the right idea. when the evidence is not clear public health messaging should follow the precautionary principle

josh, the virus does live in the air. whether it has been demonstrated to do so above a certain arbitrary experimentally defined threshold are the sort of details that can be worked out later. even if the risk is small wearing a mask is benign and reduces that risk, and public health guidance should reflect that

the WHO not reflecting guidance to wear a mask is also used as fodder by the anti-mask contingent - "SEE??!! they can't even agree internally whether we should wear one or not!!"

Josh, despite whatever your intentions are, I think your posts generally come off as gloating or have this kind of forced-naivety in tone that, while optimistic in saying "things seem to be working well here" ignores the fact that no one else posting right now shares this experience. I mean, "guy just giving the lay of the land" is useful when describing a local phenomena or using your local as a representative sample but that's not what's going on.

The bigger question is even if the major public health orgs, the federal government, lots of state and local governments were all in agreement and clear about the best way to protect people, how do you then enforce those rules across a massive portion of the population?

Here in Miami-Dade County, where we've been under a mask ordinance since late March, quite easily. Many of these seniors will wear HAZMAT suits to Publix and vote for Trump in November.

mask wearing, despite not being enforced here, has improved a lot in Orange County. there are still definitely places I don't see them, but last time I went to Publix, I found just one guy not wearing them, and honestly if I'd have seen the guy's pic before I entered the store, could have guessed he'd be the one not wearing it.

i suspect the people who are still going to restaurants are probably less likely to give a shit. though some restaurants have sign on their doors now saying you must wear a mask to be let in.

It's hard to tell how effective it is in Texas since it has only been a few days since Abbott put a mask rule in place, after weeks of keeping city leaders' hands tied. It feels like too little too late, but I guess we'll see. Meanwhile, kids are supposed to be returning to school on Aug 18, which is coming up real fast.

The WHO changing its messaging will not fix things on its own, but getting to clear consensus messaging will have positive effects. Beyond that, it's not down to just messaging, but actual enforcement. If people can't take responsibility on their own, they may need legal encouragement as well.

of course the enforcement part is a challenge because we've already seen in cities that do have some sort of enforcement on the books, it's been enforced disproportionately against the Black community.

IMO $250 fine is sufficient, that's enough to give the less wealthy pause, and maybe make the fine on a sliding scale for people who make more than $75,000

there was enough anger about the fact a grocery store here had an outbreak among employees, refused to tell the other employees at the store about it let alone the public, and had such bad policies in general that a local BLM group set up a rally/protest at their parking lot for worker solidarity

otm about unequal enforcement being a huge issue, Neanderthal

some anecdotal evidence from a pretty cool guy who I used to work for several lifetimes ago in Indiana:

Our hundreds of staff have surely encountered 10’s of thousands of people during these last months, and to our knowledge we’ve had one staff member fall sick to the virus— A cook in our kitchen at Hive, a busy kitchen where he worked full-time in close quarters with other staff. The day he was diagnosed in late March, we immediately closed, and have only re-opened two weeks ago.

Here’s the thing, that staff member was masked up, as were our other staff, and as far as we know, no other staff contracted virus. Apparently three of his family members all contracted the virus at a family event. One of them didn’t make it. Our staff member nearly died after being in a coma for almost 3 weeks, and he is a young man.

I know we’ve done the right thing in requiring masks. It’s a thing that we can do to help protect each other. I’d urge our governments to mandate them in confined spaces and wherever possible in order to slow transmission. I realize it’s impossible to enforce, but does such a mandate even need an enforcement mechanism? I’m not sure it does. Let’s try a little bit harder.

anecdotes-as-evidence are a slippery slope (hello brain worms, etc.) but I think when they're in service of something that's a relatively easy, low-effort thing like encouraging masks I'm all for them

places with more masks seem to have a lower rate of infection, wear the damn mask for your family and your community. if you want to protect yourself, even better

Try a little bit harder is a great starting point. The idea that nothing can be improved by making small but necessary changes is really holding us back right now.

it's the same logic used for the anti-gun control faction.

I am required to teach that cheesy "starfish" story in my training classes, where the kids are throwing beached starfish back in the ocean , and some old stodgy man tells them it's pointless, because they can't save them all.

in the 2020 version of that story, the kid says "you're right grandpa, let's go trigger some libs" and hops on the back of his Harley.

Aside: for others like myself thinking of more vulnerable family members, the EVMS MATH+ protocol and its first 25 references has some ideas for lower-cost and potentially helpful prophylaxis. Eastern Virginia Medical School seems to have decent results with their inpatient protocols (3.5% hospitalization mortality, vs around 20% in NYC and for NHS).

Coming at things from a different direction, the CDC just added several symptoms to its official list, and they are so generic and mundane - like runny nose, stuffy nose and congestion, sore throat, diarrhea - that some have hypothesized they added them just to further encourage people to get tested.

Which, btw, everyone should, if there's even a chance you have it or might have been exposed. My wife got tested last week via drive-thru - she never left the car - and had her result back less than 24 hours later.

you know the testing situation is very different depending on where you live, right

it's almost like a consistent, coordinated federal response would have been a good thing!

but states rights

Fine, I get the message, every state is different. I'll just stop posting in this thread. Celebrate at will.

Scary thread of shitty long term effects of rona:

Hey, so, I got #Covid19 in March. I’ve been sick for over 3 months w/ severe respiratory, cardiovascular & neurological symptoms. I still have a fever. I’ve been incapacitated for nearly a season of my life. It's not enough to not die. You don’t want to live thru this, either. 1/

— Dani Oliver (@DaniOliver) July 3, 2020

I can't qualify for a test in NY and my elderly parents with health complications apparently don't qualify for getting them in MI either so idk idk

Completely, utterly insane that anyone should have to 'qualify' for a test at this point.

you know the testing situation is very different depending on where you live, right

― time is running out to pitch in $5 (Karl Malone), Sunday, July 5, 2020 2:19 PM bookmarkflaglink

it's almost like a consistent, coordinated federal response would have been a good thing!

but states rights

― time is running out to pitch in $5 (Karl Malone), Sunday, July 5, 2020 2:19 PM bookmarkflaglink

yep. where I live, you can take it for whatever reason. my best friend, who likely HAD the fucking 'rona, was denied a test several months ago, and still doesn't qualify for one (she lives in Richmond).

gee, wonder which state has the higher % of positive tests

Most of the time I don’t want to catch the coronavirus because I don’t want to spread it, and then occasionally I see one of these trip reports and I remember that I also don’t want to catch it because I really really don’t want to develop even moderate covid 19

You really don't. It can fuck you up very badly.

yeah I'm really curious what the long term prognosis is for some of these people. how many "mild" or "moderate" cases are going to become some sort of chronic illness, or will result in permanent lung damage?

I don't think they know how many yet, but it's obvious it's happening. of the five or so friends I know who had it, some had no noticeable long-term affects, some reported having minor reduction in breathing capability months later, one took two months of steroids and occasional hospital visitations to get back to normal.

my friend told me during the throes of it that she was breaking down crying one night due to how difficult it was to breathe, and that she felt a sharp stabbing pain a day or so later that almost sent her to the ER.

This is why that idiotic South Parkish take “you only have a 99.9% chance of survival” (in my age group at least) irritates me so much - like, it clearly isn’t just death or a bad flu, a lot of the stories I’ve read are downright terrifying and I’d be incredibly nervous about the long term effects

besides the fact that they have an overconfidence in what the mortality rate is, and their calculation is always much lower than what the numbers currently suggest, I would love to know why they're ok with overcrowded hospitals and people suffering permanent damage to their respiratory systems.

with the hospitals, their approach is simple - they just deny there's overcrowding. I've had people who live in places that I know have limited hospital beds with doctors and nurses confirming this proclaim loudly "hmm, where's the overcrowding??!!"

^this
And

This is why that idiotic South Parkish take “you only have a 99.9% chance of survival” (in my age group at least) irritates me so much - like, it clearly isn’t just death or a bad flu, a lot of the stories I’ve read are downright terrifying and I’d be incredibly nervous about the long term effects

Aside: for others like myself thinking of more vulnerable family members, the EVMS MATH+ protocol and its first 25 references has some ideas for lower-cost and potentially helpful prophylaxis. Eastern Virginia Medical School seems to have decent results with their inpatient protocols (3.5% hospitalization mortality, vs around 20% in NYC and for NHS).

― 4'33" at an abattoir (Sanpaku), Sunday, July 5, 2020 1:38 PM (six hours ago)

this is utter nonsense and please stop posting this stuff!

Readers can judge for themselves. The recs are, at worst, harmless. I think there's a good case to run some randomized controlled trials on some, given benchtop studies / negligible side effects / past RCTs with less lethal viral diseases. But I'm comfortable thinking about 0-5% benefits given the cost.

Sanpaku, youve been revealed to be a charlatan too often on here, kevin is a fuckin medical doctor please stop

but %s tho

Sanpak-oof

Now seeing friends wig out about this, because they apparently didn't realize bubonic plague never really went away, but we have antibiotics now

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/07/06/bubonic-plague-warning-in-chinas-inner-mongolia-here-is-what-it-means/

Big news from Harvard:

While some students will live on campus, "all course instruction (undergraduate and graduate) for the 2020-21 academic year will be delivered online"https://t.co/TRB8Gaap0t

— Bill Grueskin (@BGrueskin) July 6, 2020

but...it's not about the instruction...it's about the networking with future harvard grads and their families...

what, are the future presidents and supreme court justice members in the current harvard law program supposed to just ZOOM with each other??

I saw mini-thread on Twitter that made a good point about the overlap between the MAGA chuds that refuse to wear masks and the MAGA chuds incensed about Black Lives Matter. They are completely incapable of empathizing with something that doesn't personally impact them. While, ever so slowly, some of them may come around to wearing a mask because COVID is really starting to hit the red states, they will never be able to empathize with those who have suffered from systematic racism, which is what propels my ongoing despair for our country ever reversing this tailspin.

my friend would rather not return to the office full time, although he’d like to be able to stop in to do some things that aren’t easily done at home

someone in his office contracted the virus and he needs a negative test to return. apparently, there’s no easy way here for someone who has not had symptoms to get a test. even if it’s as a prerequisite to work. he finally made it over to the clinic on the other side of town run by the single publicly-funded hospital, the only place that will do on-demand testing without symptoms

yeah after trying to understand the thinking of that demographic after a family dustup last month I realized people think that way (re: masks, re: police brutality) just because they fucking want to and they absolutely are empathy-deficient and some of them in fact see "empathy" as a mental illness or some kind of problem itself that needs to be eradicated from humankind so there's just no way for me to ever connect with these people.

well, except with empathy

I need to find the article again, but there’s one making the rounds making the point that percentage of positive tests shows a very skewed view of the situation and the metric that is more useful as a primary point is “tests per positives”

the idea being that 1 out of 5 people testing positive seems bad, but if you only did five tests, your data is worthless. If you say “5 positive in 100 tests” then it’s a much more useful metric than the percentage alone, as it both encourages more testing and while the number of positives are higher, it’s a clearer view of the total situation — and if you care about the percentage, it’s right there

you’d also get a lot more of a push to test anyone who wants a test, asymptomatic or symptomatic, because the goal is to gauge the population (or at least the possibly-exposed population) as a whole rather than waffling about what tests mean

Solnit has a great essay about the maskless people of the pandemic (Masculinity as Radical Selfishness) where she brings up "self regulation". This is such a great word to describe where a large amount of people in the US just completely fail at living within an interconnected society.

"Self-regulation is defined as children’s ability to control their behavior and impulses, follow directions, and persist on a task."