US Politics, June 2020 — You have to dominate.

there will be plenty of time to review these things during the biden presidency, a time of great healing when none of the principal villains in the trump administrations will be indicted for anything

a time of great healing when the principal villains in the trump administrations will be invited to appear on Meet the Press with clockwork regularity

but not Pence, he'd put a goldfish to sleep

and half of the left thinks that anything to do with russia is dumb and doesn't want to hear it

Then refute it

I don’t get that take either.

i can't tell which take is embarrassing or needs refuting or isn't gotten, sorry. gonna a do-over

i'll re-do my take. i'm just saying there's a large portion of the left (why did i say "half"? i don't know. bad take) that doesn't want to hear anything about russia ever again and feels very burned by the whole mueller investigation and how it played out. i very much sympathize with this take. it overwhelmed everything, it did, and people who i previously liked (like rachel maddow) were instrumental in turning it into the OJ trial again (in terms of media obsession and speculation).

i guess possibly the root of the "take" confusion is that i'm referring to this as my take, but what i'm actually doing is summarizing a broad "take" of a group of people that i don't 100% agree with, and then criticizing that take. so that's confusing. sorry about that.

but anyway, the problem with the take in my last post is that athere really was/is a bunch of crazy shit with russia, and it leads large parts of the left to roll their eyes/ignore at real things that are happening, and a general habit of dismissing things with a wave of a hand without actually engaging with them

There's also a thing that I've seen in some acquaintances' feeds that gets really panicky about the left blaming everything on Russia, which I understand, but sometimes seems to want to wave away actual fuckery.

Also recognizing that Russian “antics” demand a foreign policy response stronger than “lol u got me Putin, hilarious!” means having a national security strategy in the first place, which a substantial portion of “the left” find unacceptable

I agree with you Karl, my comment was dumb and muddled, sorry.

Which is uh...pretty understandable, in many ways.

oh no, not at all circa! honestly lately i've been having lapses of total stupidity (at least 1 SD above the mean) and i'm pretty sure i just psyched myself out.

also happy 4:20, totally unrelated i'm sure

by total stupidity, i mean "repeatedly tweeting insults @politicians on twitter"

tweeting on twitter in general, just a bad scene for me lately

BREAKING— (thread)GOP operatives are for the first time raising the possibility that @realDonaldTrump could drop out of the race if his poll numbers don’t rebound. Over the weekend I spoke to a sample of major players; one described Trumps current psyche as “fragile.” I’m

— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) June 28, 2020

lol

you can't really devise a 'virtuous'? -- 'good'? -- US national security strategy when no one living remembers one

one if by land, two if by sea??

Lmao Trump is not dropping out they ran these same stories after the Access Hollywood tape

so fragile

...and isolated!

saw a post on Twitter earlier with screenshots of a popular commentator announcing confidently that the trump admin was "falling apart" four seperate times right through the last few years.

But it has been. He just hires a new set of jabronis every year

I think the left has a couple of totally legitimate concerns with focus on Russia (and trumps criminality more generally).

1. That the neera tandens of this world will use Russia to stay in control of the Democratic Party by blaming their loss on a purely foreign intervention, rather than an extremely poor campaign and candidate and a preternatural misunderstanding of what voters want.

2. From a purely tactical electoral POV it’s not a good thing to focus on if your goal is to get rid of trump.

The difficulty is that it probably is worth worrying about at some level. It’s not fake news. There does need to be a legal reckoning.

It's easy to say Russia has run a steady psy-op operation with the full acquiescence of the American government without getting complacent about Joe Biden's chances.

when your college friend who has just announced they're "starting a novel" asks you which photo they should use for the cover https://t.co/5gYHwbvRvK

— man it’s a hot zone, (@Mobute) June 28, 2020

But it has been. He just hires a new set of jabronis every year

― Nhex, Sunday, June 28, 2020 6:47 PM

but this election season, a new set of jabronies...
https://i.imgur.com/B4pLi5t.jpg

are taking over the operation...
https://i.imgur.com/2a2WrMZ.jpg

in one wild ride...
https://i.imgur.com/yuTtTzL.jpg

they'll never forget...
https://i.imgur.com/VRscowF.jpg

and a surprise visit...
https://i.imgur.com/4XsD2VW.jpg

from someone you'll never expect!
https://i.imgur.com/lbR67BU.jpg

well, as usual, that distractingly large group of christians has ruined everything

(who's the jabroni 'shopped into the first photo?)

i don't know! i figured he was an extended member of the trump family, he seems like he would be involved in the strategy for siphoning as much money out of this to their family as quickly possible, or at least contributing to that effort

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/K8eZ7yuGJFo/maxresdefault.jpg

I don't believe this shit for a second, but at least they're discussing it, which shows the shape they're in.

A stretch of lackluster polling for President Trump has some Republican operatives nervous about the president’s reelection prospects in November – with some even floating the possibility for the first time that Trump could drop out if his poll numbers don’t rebound.

“It’s too early, but if the polls continue to worsen, you can see a scenario where he drops out,” one GOP operative who asked to remain anonymous told Fox News.

“I’ve heard the talk but I doubt it’s true,” another said. “My bet is, he drops if he believes there’s no way to win.”

Well, he is selfish and immature, but my reaction to such loose talk is that it has zero connection to reality until it is confirmed by his dropping out. Otherwise, it sounds like gossipy clickbait to me.

i think the dropping out rumors themselves are whatever, but the fact that it's on the foxnews website is notable and good

/But it has been. He just hires a new set of jabronis every year

― Nhex, Sunday, June 28, 2020 6:47 PM/

but this election season, a new set of jabronies...
🖼

sidebar: how does Bottle Rocket hold up? I've never seen.

problematic

The polls on election day 2016 showed him with what, a 2% chance of winning? This fucking numbskull is convinced polls are fake news and silent majority wants to tongue bathe his balls for eternity.

538 had him around 25% on election day

turns out the Comey thing really did change the numbers

*sigh*

btw 538 got shit on a lot in 2016 but I feel like they were one of the only aggregators that actually treated Trump like a normal R candidate (after the first few GOP primaries at least) and they were sounding the alarm pretty loudly about Trump losing the popular vote but still winning the EC, which a lotta people didn't pick up on because Trump was constantly insisting the opposite would happen

i don't think trump reads 538

it would be interesting to hear his opinions on polls-plus vs nowcast, it's true

if you want to hate-read the election results thread for some analysis of how wrong 538 was in real-time, please be my guest. They were still propping up Hillary hopefuls well into the evening after the dread had already set in from pretty much every other data-driven outlet.

How is bottle rocket problematic (real q)

btw 538 got shit on a lot in 2016 but I feel like they were one of the only aggregators that actually treated Trump like a normal R candidate (after the first few GOP primaries at least) and they were sounding the alarm pretty loudly about Trump losing the popular vote but still winning the EC, which a lotta people didn't pick up on because Trump was constantly insisting the opposite would happen

― frogbs, Sunday, June 28, 2020 11:32 PM bookmarkflaglink

I was one of those naysayers :(

i thought 538 gave trump 30% chance of winning, the night before?

ttt (chances of trump winning)
ccccccc (chances of clinton winning)

randomly pick one. whoa it was t! 538 are idiots!

he did. he was always the most cautioned re: Clinton, as NYT had 85%, and...well we all remember what Sam Wang did.

My opponent pulled a gun on his first wife & shot it, pressured her and a mistress into three abortions, & illegally prescribed pills to a patient he was sleeping with.

Me? I didn't do any of that.

I'll give you health care though.

Chip in right away. https://t.co/2QPqJ83j9k

— Christopher J. Hale (@chrisjollyhale) June 28, 2020

if you want to hate-read the election results thread for some analysis of how wrong 538 was in real-time, please be my guest. They were still propping up Hillary hopefuls well into the evening after the dread had already set in from pretty much every other data-driven outlet.

― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Sunday, June 28, 2020 8:51 PM (forty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I think their system wasn't set up to respond to realtime results until a state was called, so they didn't change the probability until Hilary lost Florida