US Politics, June 2020 — You have to dominate.

An underappreciated moment

Florida woman "I don't wear a mask for the same reason I don't wear underwear, things gotta breathe" pic.twitter.com/ww1EiZDP99

— gifdsports (@gifdsports) June 24, 2020

That Florida woman sounds exactly like Cecily Strong’s “girl you wish you hadn’t started a conversation with at a party” on SNL.

― Album Moods: Rambunctious; Snide (Dan Peterson),

First thing I thought of too. "Read a book, Seth!"

I'm seeing comment from people I know on Facebook about states shutting down again meaning their travel plans have had to be scuppered.

Which states? (and where were they travelling from?)

The new nyt state polling.

Joe Biden opens up a considerable 9 point lead across the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency
MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6https://t.co/OTskdebCrM

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) June 25, 2020

wau

Mr. Trump’s once-commanding advantage among white voters has nearly vanished, a development that would all but preclude the president’s re-election. Mr. Biden now has a 21-point lead among white college graduates, and the president is losing among white voters in the three Northern battleground states — not by much, but he won them by nearly 10 points in 2016.

This is gobsmacking remembering how things stood in 2014:

A majority of voters, 63 percent, say they would rather back a presidential candidate who focuses on the cause of protests, even when the protests go too far

With a little more than four months to go until the election, there is still time for the president’s political standing to recover, just as it did on so many occasions four years ago.

This statement, and all the variations on it that appear in every campaign-related piece, makes me want to gouge my eyes out. Donald Trump has never had even the barest majority of the American public on his side. In FiveThirtyEight's tracker, his highest approval rating ever was 45.8%. If his "political standing" were to "recover," what would that look like?

Seriously. Once again he's so anomalous that he even makes a 4-year term seem like an overpowered oversight by the founders, since they never envisioned someone so shitty (and enabled by so many shitheads) you wished they'd have to answer to voters again after, like, a month.

It's the economy. I've muttered this before but I've said this over the past few years: if the economy was doing well, he'd likely be reelected. There's a whole swath of people -- and yeah, pretty white overall -- for whom that's all that matters, not in some sort of Ayn Rand sense, just in a 'well I'm doing fine, I don't care' sense. That's been blown out of the water so comprehensively it's very much still being processed. All businesses are adjusting one way or another, the complexities of what that means is still playing out, and Trump's response is now found consistently wanting; even the market's not buying it any more. Add to that the events of the last five weeks, and there you go.

that sounds about right to me. america is very much on its "i got mine" surfboard and this guy keep chumming the water. it only took a once in a generation epidemic, but the money is starting to recognize conclusively that a less out of control demagogue is more likely to maintain a white supremacist, top-heavy, classist patriarchy for longer.

This statement, and all the variations on it that appear in every campaign-related piece, makes me want to gouge my eyes out. Donald Trump has never had even the barest majority of the American public on his side. In FiveThirtyEight's tracker, his highest approval rating ever was 45.8%. If his "political standing" were to "recover," what would that look like?

between voter suppression, the electoral college, and outright cheating, you can absolutely win with 45.8%

Trump's problem is that he has no margin for error, think of all the shit that had to break his way to win in 2016. I don't think any of those factors are in play this time around. He's losing some of his soft support from 2016 and gaining basically no one. He can't vote on people hate-voting against Biden the way they did against Hillary. And nobody is going to give a shit about Hunter Biden while there's a pandemic raging on. On the contrary, I think his numbers could drop even further, as the European countries that got hit hard in Jan/Feb start to return to normalcy as the US enters its 5th cycle of locking down and reopening way too early

i wouldn’t be surprised if his support among racist racists who love being racist has skyrocketed, and there never seems to be a shortage of people meeting that description

He was already the racist racists' candidate in 2016, though. They all voted for him then.

I can't tell if the absence of Hunter Biden horseshit for the last few months is because a) pandemic distraction b) they realized it just doesn't stick c) they're saving some kind of fake-ass Hunter Biden "revelation" for an October Surprise

xp yeah he got 100% of that demographic in 2016

Like, I mean I agree that racists' support for Trump has, in fact, skyrocketed. He keeps throwing them giant gobbets of red meat. But no matter how strongly they feel, they still (mostly) only get to vote once.

Sure, I don't deny that there is a whole factory for making more racists (called the USA) but I am not certain that new racists are being created at the rate Trump will need to offset other demographic trends.

A different/actual human being could possibly pull out all the stops and attempt a hail mary act of contrition over the next several months in order to shore up the necessary support to pull out a win. Like someone whose engines didn't run purely on high-octane grievance, maybe.

Unfortunately, the doubling down we're likely to see through November is likely to hurt more than just his chances of reelection.

I am not certain that new racists are being created at the rate Trump will need to offset other demographic trends.

I mean, look at the support for the protests. This development astonishes me considering the history of protest in this country. I don't doubt the current occupant of the Oval Office has contributed to its success.

A different/actual human being could possibly pull out all the stops and attempt a hail mary act of contrition

Not without losing some MAGAnauts, though. They would see contrition as weakness, and contrary to the Trump brand. Anything he does to expand past his current base risks alienating diehards.

But I also agree with OL in this regard:

Unfortunately, the doubling down we're likely to see through November is likely to hurt more than just his chances of reelection.

Like, if you're just a horse-race junkie who wants him to lose, you root for him to become ever more insane and ever more unelectable. But there are human costs because his politics is a politics designed to harm the downtrodden. And it is working. So fuck him forever.

Anything he does to expand past his current base risks alienating diehards.

He's already losing cult members - in that swing state article they mention that his approval among Republicans is down to the mid 80s when it was in the upper 90s only a few months ago. I think even more are going to peel away as the stink of loser becomes more pungent. This will begin the inevitable transition into the post-Trump era, where no one will admit to ever having voted for him and years' worth of footage of politicians publicly licking his nuts will be labeled deepfakes.

Trump's chances in 2020 pretty much hinge entirely on Bill Barr and how much he's able to cheat. which is why the Dems need to start the impeachment process on Barr yesterday

and earn lucrative commentator gigs on MSNBC.

xpost

with 79% reporting, booker is now up over mcgrath in KY, 43.5% to 40.0

between voter suppression, the electoral college, and outright cheating, you can absolutely win with 45.8%

One of the biggest differences between 2016 and 2020 is that back then, 100 years ago, there was a hubristic attitude of "he can't win." And now that's been tampered down a little to a more modest "he's much less likely to win again." Because when you only have two candidates, and one of them is already the president then of course his chances are pretty good, no matter his support.

how does booker poll against mconnell?

No one is beating McConnell

According to 538 there’s one McConnell booker poll: 52/38.

if McConnell loses, so does Trump.

while the reverse isn't trure

yeah, whoever wins is going to face a huge uphill fight. the biggest issue: trump is still way up over biden in kentucky, generally by +15 or +20. for some crazy reason, it seems like most of the great people of the state of kentucky support donald trump during this time of "racial tensions"

Booker is the only out-of-state politician I have ever donated to, seriously rooting for him and yeah it's uphill but so is everything

Absolutely worth donating. Everything that diverts National gop money more thinly across more senate races is good, and strong senate tickets are good for statehouse and DA and congressional races. McConnell is not going to lose though.

imo the most effective political ad this year will be some version of this:

https://i.imgur.com/OOvO8kG.png

just refresh the data every couple days, bear witness to the ramifications of voting for an idiot

i'm all done voting for Dem veterans

those dips are all the weekends right?

yeah - wish i could find the 7-day average of that chart that everyone keeps posting, but when i look for the original source i can only find daily and 3-days.

if McConnell loses, Trump crashes so hard they'll need a backhoe to reach his remains

Get a look at this asshole. I mean, just look at him.

The White House assigned to Michael Pack, the new CEO of the U.S. Agency for Global Media, an advisor who had little experience with the group that Pack was being asked to run. https://t.co/jzcBcO87Cp

— CNBC Politics (@CNBCPolitics) June 25, 2020

TBF, appointing someone with no experience is a step up from appointing someone who exists to oppose the role he's being appointed to.

I meant just look at them, his face. I want to punch him.

Well, you can believe Mr. Pecker

I cannot wait for the day she leaves office

Speaker Pelosi rules out impeaching Attorney General Bill Barr: "Let's solve our problems by going to the polls." pic.twitter.com/CCYJu4mE4d

— The Recount (@therecount) June 25, 2020

yeah. whatever political instinct she used to have, she's outlived them.

You mean the polls that Attorney General Bill Barr will almost certainly do everything within and beyond the power of his office to fuck with? Sounds grate, Nance!

How'd the last impeachment go

It went fine—the president was impeached for history, his lawbreaking went on the public record, and he further exhibited his obstructionism. Nobody thought he would actually be removed from office.

Not impeaching Barr is an abdication of their duty.

no one thinks the impeachment would be successful. didn't last time, either. doesn't mean there's no reason to do it.

but on balance, yes, i think it would be a bad idea to do a second impeachment right now. however, pelosi has plenty of space to make a point about barr's corruption without actually impeaching.

for example, she could simply state the plain truth that everyone outside of fox news sees: barr is the most corrupt AG in the history of this country, and the only reason he's still in power is because everyone knows the senate republicans won't hold him accountable. she can powerfully make that point, because that's what happened with trump's impeachment. he "won", technically, but anyone with eyes to see knows what happened there.

xp