US Politics, June 2020 — You have to dominate.

AP call! Dems just chose their nominee in #VA05, it'll be @DrCameronWebb.

This is a GOP-held seat but the GOP incumbent was ousted at a "drive-thru convention", in part for officiating a same-sex wedding. So Webb will face @GoodForCongress, who used to work at Liberty Univ.

— Taniel (@Taniel) June 23, 2020

This is a potentially big blow to Meadows: I suspect the president doesn't like his endorsed candidates to lose by 30%+. Next time Meadows/Freedom Caucus ask Trump to endorse a friend, wonder how much sway they'll have. https://t.co/nR5biicd7m

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 24, 2020

madison cawthorn is 24 years old:

https://i.imgur.com/YN4shkm.png

Mathaniel Cawthorn

from the deepfake wing of the party

My man is running for a seat in western NC and the first sentence of the Key Issues page of his website mentions AOC (and Pelosi).

keepin' them north carolina borders safe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvq9XvpPqzU

eliot engel . . . cya

That Harris clip is good!

Will she be the VP candidate?

Good morning!

Yeah, NY results are looking pretty good so far.

Do we have Kentucky yet?

What elections are these?

Dem primary to run against Mitch. McGrath (MOR) or Booker (more progressive). Could be a case, a la Iowa, where the leftier person winning the primary costs the Dems the election, but I don't know how things stand in KY. McGrath (who now that she has a challenger is not passing progressive purity tests) seems to be slightly in the lead right now.

Ppl have been saying McGrath sucks for a long time.

Yeah, but they would have voted for her and they clearly have been raising money for her.

Politico story about grumpy black voters in a rich Detroit suburb

I think these people are wrong; I think Trump's alienated enough white voters, and riled up enough people, that he's gonna lose. Especially since he barely won in the first place. But I'm curious what others think of this piece.

hahaha I'm about to write about that one

Most of their comments are 100% otm.

Comments otm, but scans so anecdotal and desperate for portent that it might as well be about sailors sighting a mermaid on the Detroit River. imo.

Don't get me wrong, "Trump gonna win" is a unbeatable rebuttal to any argument, but the bigger picture story they're telling has nothing to do with Trump winning or losing.

Exactly.

Looks like Michael Flynn's case has been ordered dismissed in appeals.

An appeals court has ordered Judge Emmet Sullivan to dismiss Michael Flynn’s case, a surprise conclusion in a long-running political fight. Via @kpolantz

— erica orden (@eorden) June 24, 2020

Is it really that big a fucking surprise?

They should put him on the campaign trail ASAP!

God, that Detroit article.

I think these people are wrong; I think Trump's alienated enough white voters, and riled up enough people, that he's gonna lose. Especially since he barely won in the first place. But I'm curious what others think of this piece.

they're definitely right that Biden won't inspire anybody and that picking Kamala would be pure pandering (though lol @ picking Michelle Obama) though I do think they underestimate just how motivated people are to get Trump out of office

agree with yr assessment frogbs

Now whether that motivation will actually get him out of office is another story, but the motivation is there.

*strolls into political discussion at suburban detroit cookout*

Biden's up by 14 in the first NYT poll, do we have thoughts

like I understand that people are still shellshocked about 2016 and the fact that Trump has even 35% approval when he's so obviously a racist idiot who doesn't give a shit about America or the lives of American people but he's still deeply unpopular, everything he does is unpopular, it'll take even more of a fluke for him to win now than it did in 2020, especially since there's no "c'mon, this moron can't seriously win this" factor this time around

The Detroit article was obviously a fishing expedition:

"I asked Johnny Thomas what he does for a living. “I’m retired,” he said, looking straight ahead. Then he glanced around the table. “I was a commander with the Detroit Police Department.”"

you underestimate the power of gerrymandering and other forms of voter suppression, methinks.

*strolls into political discussion at suburban detroit cookout*

Biden's up by 14 in the first NYT poll, do we have thoughts

yeah that's the thing I'm worried about, Trump is absolutely going to try to fuck with the vote-by-mail process in the most blatant way possible

we should get Hillary to endorse Trump = kiss of death

I'll be flabbergasted if he wins a second term. Everything is against him and the one thing he could crow about, the economy (which wasn't that great to begin with) is sure to be even further in the shitter by the time Nov comes around. Biden is up beyond the margin of error in too many of the critical states. It's fucking over for Trump. I just expect four months of scabrous and insane bullshit while he attempts every possible thing imaginable to boost his numbers.

I really don't know what world you all are living in but it's not mine

DJP otm. I wish I could feel as certain as some of you, but history has not been kind and we see no end to the amount of fuckery these Repubs will get up to to keep their gravy train of grift rolling along.

It's not over till it's over – a lot can happen in the next 131 days.

i would feel confident in a Trump defeat if i had any faith that he wouldn't be pulling every single possible lever of suppression and conspiracy-mongering and using DOJ as his personal litigator

The most reassuring data is not those polls but the real world enthusiasm and turn out in every single election since Nov. 2016, which has remained high and loud.

Hmm, I wonder what the Game Genie Party's chances of winning this fall's game of Contra are.

my concern is not that most people won't intend to vote for Biden but that enough will somehow be prevented from doing so

for me the most reassuring thing is that there are basically no swing voters any more while simultaneously is historically unpopular among likely voters.

the worrying thing is suppression and, especially, the fact that we probably won't know the result on election night because of covid postal voting which is an opportunity like no other for a "rigged!" narrative to become mainstream (not like among Q people, but among general low info voters).

covid postal voting

I know, I know, it's serious

yeah 4 months is a long time especially in Trumpworld where major scandals materialize and turn into "Trump + GOP corrupt so what" within a couple of days and everyone forgets about it a week later, BUT the major stories of the last few months which are really hurting Trump right now are the pandemic, civil unrest, and massive unemployment, none of which have really gone away or gotten any better. he can't control the narrative anymore, just tweeting insane shit about Burisma and OBAMAGATE isn't gonna work the way it did for "emails!" in 2016, things are legitimately shitty right now and by the end of summer we may be facing travel bans ON US because our handling of the pandemic was so bad. Trump's path to victory at this point would involve progress on all these fronts AND more electoral college magic, plus massive voter suppression. now all this may happen, Biden is by no means a lock, but I will point out that Hillary had nowhere near this big a lead & it still took everything breaking for Trump for him to pull off a victory.

So the Madison crowd last night: knocked over the statue of an abolitionist immigrant who died fighting for the union, a statue commemorating women's suffrage and beat up a 60 year old state senator and left him lying on the ground.https://t.co/ZAQqZySAUe

— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) June 24, 2020

right xp.

when was the last time you heard about hunter biden? all the *gates trump can come up and magical russiagate thinking are not going to have any effect in the face of actual news that affects individual voters, which is what we've been pandemic, an economic catastrophe, and extremely popular protest movement, and a strongly held public opinion about trump's performance on all of these.

also social distancing helps because it reduces the opportunity for biden gaffes (he is absolutely not up to the job of campaigning).