love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

Just went to Newmarket and got "what the fuck is wrong with you?" vibes from almost everyone for (a) wearing a mask and (b) moving out of their way to maintain some (like a metre) distance, so Cambridge not that bad after all.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

having a look at the figures you can find here which run up 12th June and it looks like England is coming out of lockdown with a death tally higher than it went into lockdown with?

I don't think that makes much of a difference if the number of new cases and levels of infection continue to decline (big if). Deaths trail infections by three or four weeks and I don't think anyone is seriously suggesting the virus itself is more prevalent or spreading as rapidly as it was in late March.

Also we're testing much more now so although new case levels are similar there were probably many more in late March that weren't picked up.

When the extremely online get elected

I too express my excitement at going to the pub by taking a photo giving a shop full of kettles a big old thumbs up like a very normal guy 🙃 https://t.co/3iWjxmNmq6

— Charlotte Nichols (@charlotte2153) June 23, 2020

The 'r' number is still estimated at iirc 0.7-0.9 and potentially as high as 1.0 in some regions. It doesn't take a whole lot of unlocking to push that above 1 and if we're starting at a base no lower than end-March lockdown numbers again the whole exercise seems like a short delay in order to fuck up the economy and idk save petrol or something

R number isn’t the tell-all because there are probably places with huge numbers of infections (factories and meat processing plants as well as care homes) where community spread is relatively low.

I just don't think it's true that we're starting from a base no lower than the end of March - the level of infection was really high back then largely due to people doing things like going to Cheltenham and spreading it all over the country. The R rate and the death rate between them don't tell the whole story.

Despite that the level of infection is too high to be relaxing everything - I guess we'll know by the end of July and I'm not going to be setting foot in a pub before then. (xpost)

Briefly, this means anyone accusing an MP of abuse doesn’t have to have the accusation dissected in a parliamentary debate. Can’t wait to see the names who voted against it.

Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt and some obscure backbencher called Theresa May.

Sir Michael "warm your hands on my balls" Fallon will be saying too late!

"Most recent strategy looks to me like "can't we just fucking talk about something else?" while we're still burying almost a thousand people a week."

Yeah, this.

Anyway, walked to Sainsbury's tonight and people had just taken over the path - a group of four adults hogged the whole (wide) path despite me doing a comedy swerve. Couples were holding hands and refusing to walk in single file.

I work in health and wonder if I'm just over-used to risk assessing. Like, I know meeting a friend carries risk (compared to staying in) but I can think "Yeah, that's worth it." But the idea of going to the pub and potentially being infected by someone random feels too ... pointless.

I can't imagine what would be fun about the pub right now. Sitting with your pals in a weird pentagram behind perspex screens, watching a harassed member of staff constantly wiping everything down, unable to pick up glasses from the top because you don't want your fingers on the surfaces people have just had in their mouths. If I'm allowed to sit close to my pals again then they're coming to my house where I can be certain the surfaces have been cleaned properly and I'm not going to risk a drunken randomer invade my personal space in the name of friendly banter.

yeah I would really just like a friend to just come and visit and get drunk in my house tbh

I am pretty isolated! but my nearest friends can't because one of them is a cancer survivor and is classed as vulnerable, so they are still isolating seriously, and my family are miles away and also mostly vulnerable or living with someone who is. I'm thinking of hiring a car so I can drive to the Midlands without getting a train, if they'll let me. would need to find a cat-sitter first tho

Interesting to see how Kier Starmer has changed his tune from "get a grip you are risking a second wave" to "government is doing the right thing, we support them" isn't it. Almost as if he doesn't believe in anything. @TonePolicing

This was on june 2nd:https://t.co/LNmKwVoWqx

— Hunt and Eat Billionaires ☭ Ⓐ ☆ 🦀 ACAB, KTA. (@miriksmit) June 23, 2020

he has been oscillating between the two positions throughout, while managing not to put any real pressure on the govt when he forensically opposes them. Useless tory arsehole¬!

useless useful tory arsehole

Can't believe they cancelled the daily briefing show after one season just because the main characters killed loads of people

— TechnicallyRon (@TechnicallyRon) June 23, 2020

Exclusive: the Home Office has begun the process of evicting hundreds of refugees from its accommodation in England, as the government decides not to extend the ban on asylum seeker evictions. https://t.co/bWqBxpK8qb

— Lucie Heath (@luciemheath) June 23, 2020

Government just killed 65,000 other people - how about we let 65,000 asylum seekers stay in their place?

Boris Johnson agrees with a Conservative MP that it is people's “patriotic duty” to go to the pub once they reopen.

— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) June 23, 2020

The other thing about avoiding the pubs first thing is that you avoid this crowd too. Maybe 'r' will go up in Tory areas so it's impossible to know whether it's a good thing or not etc.

sometimes a bit of disease on disease violence is needed

Interesting extra detail on government guidance for lockdown easing: There is an additional risk of infection in environments where you or others are singing, chanting, shouting or conversing loudly. This applies even if others are at a distance to you. 1/3

You should therefore avoid environments that require you to raise your voice to communicate with anyone outside your household. All venues should ensure that steps are taken to avoid people needing to unduly raise their voices to each other. 2/3

pubs, famously genteel and quiet public spaces

will definitely being going to the pub to give a thumbs up to a moulinex

RIP gigs

yeah, live music is still banned from pubs when they re-open

A man who killed a landlord because he had been barred from his pub told police “I've stabbed him to f***”, a court has heard.

"Boris Johnson agrees with a Conservative MP that it is people's “patriotic duty” to go to the pub once they reopen."

is this part of an "all pubs to be Wetherspoons" plan?

"The pound is now an emerging-market currency in all but name, according to analysts at Bank of America, who say that Brexit has turned it into a mirror of the “small and shrinking” UK economy.

In the four years since the UK voted to leave the EU, trading conditions in the pound and the big swings in exchange rates make it a better match with the Mexican peso than the US dollar, said Kamal Sharma, a currency analyst at BofA. He said that movements in the currency since the June 2016 Brexit vote have become “neurotic at best, unfathomable at worst”."

https://app.ft.com/content/4fd04fd9-7209-4b7c-97a1-97466f226159

Love to hear from BOFA

it's a pretty shit analyst that doesn't even mention what to do with deez nuts !

The important thing about re-opening pubs is that Boris Johnson can feel good about himself again, he can go back to quipping his way back into our hearts with his fun-loving Mr Positivity self-image fully repaired.

look the sooner everybody's drunk the sooner we can forget about the body count

“neurotic at best, unfathomable at worst

this is the most fertile ground for disaster capitalism surely

> Home Office has begun the process of evicting hundreds of refugees

the same day Pritti has had to admit that they will enact all the recommendations from the Windrush report.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/23/uk-government-to-act-on-all-30-windrush-recommendations

Other than the NHS, is there much left to privatise?

DWP

didn't they re-nationalise some railways?

They're in the process of reversing the Grayling privatisations.

they re-nationalised the parole service the other day too

can nationalised sausages be far behind

Keir Starmer concludes by saying the PM "dodges the question or gives dodgy answers", then leans into lawyer accusation: "No more witnesses, I rest my case." #PMQs

— Sienna Rodgers (@siennamarla) June 24, 2020

😷

http://www.lowculture.com/archives/images/kerry_convention_salute.jpg

This is on the incoming fire sale:

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/20/pandemic-fire-sale-property-assets-sunak-jenrick-sadiq-khan?

Just adds to the re-nationalize pile once communism comes in.

Critical support for Comrade Chris Grayling, doing important cointelpro work to popularise nationalisation.

Land seems like a likely answer but it looks like we're going to have a huge amount of commercial space under-utilised for years to come. I can't imagine the business case for building new offices is strong. Flooding the market with more private housing when there's already a risk to the stability of prices would be a gamble.

Briefly, this means anyone accusing an MP of abuse doesn’t have to have the accusation dissected in a parliamentary debate. Can’t wait to see the names who voted against it.

And crucially a debate where the accuser has parliamentary privilege?

Wonder how different things would've been if legend Bozza had carked it?

Raab or Gove would have stepped up to the plate in true "cometh the hour" style, dithered around doing fuck all and the outcome would've been the same, other than that the Tories would've self-destructed over the new danger to the Brexit Project and become even more distracted by that.

Also the Tory party would almost certainly have failed to resist the opportunity to dissolve into factional fighting - everyone would claim that they are the only true heir to Boris's "can win elections" aura.

I wonder whether any of the 'hawks' have tested positive. There's a theory that Bolsonaro's continued oafishness wrt COVID is partly because he had it and barely felt ill so he thinks everyone else should just pull their socks up and power through.

too rational

/ Briefly, this means anyone accusing an MP of abuse doesn’t have to have the accusation dissected in a parliamentary debate. Can’t wait to see the names who voted against it./

Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt and some obscure backbencher called Theresa May.

Interesting to see how Kier Starmer has changed his tune from "get a grip you are risking a second wave" to "government is doing the right thing, we support them" isn't it.

Watched a bit of PMQs and this is the line of attack/deflection that Johnson has settled on, in answer to almost every question. In reality the Labour line has been consistent for weeks now, variants on 'we want them to succeed in getting the pandemic under control, why aren't they?' And that's pretty much where most of the country is right now.

The Starmer approach is very much asking a question knowing that the PM will either bluster through it, lie about the numbers or get them wrong, and then have the government's own numbers ready for the follow-up. It's probably better to create the impression that Johnson can't remember his numbers, as opposed to lying about them, because that contributes to the narrative that Johnson just isn't capable of doing the job, a narrative to which increasing numbers of Tory backbenchers also appear to subscribe.