US Politics, June 2020 — You have to dominate.

I was just noting that the polls, they predict Biden winning WI, MI, PA, FL. is a completely context-free, fact-absent and unsourced statement that is worse than useless as a prompt for discussion

the pinefox obviously means well, but in practice, posting nonsense like this is functionally trolling

I don't think it's 'trolling' to discuss or note polls about US politics on a US politics thread.

The statement was not fact-absent and unsourced: it was a response to a link to specific polls, a couple of posts above mine.

In other words I followed up what another ilxor had posted and briefly, factually commented on it.

briefly, factually commented on it.

I hadn't realised you were referring specifically to that one link with your broad plural reference, but there are 387 polls in said link.

The first one is taken of Missouri residents only.

The second one is national, but only breaks down to North East, Midwest, South and West.

The third one breaks down to the same four non-state-specific regions, asks 49.9% of the respondents questions only about coronavirus, and the other 50.1% of respondents are asked 9 out of the overall 24 questions.

The fourth one is the latter 50.1% from the third, tallying the discrete voters separately.

The fifth is specifically a poll of whom Florida voters hold responsible for the pandemic, and concludes that New Poll Shows Rare Partisan Agreement and Americans overwhelmingly blame the Chinese government for the spread of COVID-19 and believe it should be held accountable. It does note that these voters favor Joe Biden by 3 points, but caveats which is within the margin of error. It then panics and has the CEO and founder of the firm separately advise that “While the race for President is tight, Florida voters trust Trump more to protect American interests against China. And with such intense anger directed toward the Chinese government right now, that could help him in November.”

You'll forgive me if I remain sceptical about the content, subject and tone of the remaining 382 polls without reading them all individually.

This is the link I was referring to:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

To me, its headline claims look quite clear. I didn't see in it what you have seen in it.

I did see in it that Biden was currently predicted to win WI, MI, PA and FL, though those are only light-blue 'likely'.

The page also states that Biden is far more likely to win the electoral college.

Whether any of this is true, I don't know. I do know that people said similar things about HRC in 2016 - as has already been pointed out above.

I didn't see in it what you have seen in it.

That link collates data from polls. I started to read the polls, because I regretted apparently mischaracterising your use of the term "the polls." The first five out of t h r e e h u n d r e d a n d e i g h t y - s e v e n still did not fit your characterisation of the content of the polls, and I stopped there.

As you now say that you did not even see the links to those polls, I revert in somewhat increased frustration to suggesting that it's extremely unproductive to say generally "the polls predict such and such" on here, without reference to the methodology or nature or actual subject of any polls.


I acknowledge again that you were posting in good faith, but I'm going to feel comfortable sticking to a two-word rolleye post in circs like these in the future.

Hold up - we're getting word that polling has shifted, and ILF is now a tossup on going for me or J. Swells as most handsome ILX0r. Further updates as they come, including on which ILF is in fact being polled.

Dude

Additional foreign casualties of US political adventurism.

Good morning!

in stunning upset, T✧✧@k✧✧.e✧✧ wins in come from behind victory over sic and J swells

Tim at kfc.edu goddammit!

daines (montana, wtf montana might have two D senators?!)

Montana had two D senators fairly recently! Jon Tester and Max Baucus overlapped in 2007-14.

I was not aware of that!

the kingmaker has spoken

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/14/politics/james-clyburn-defund-police-cnntv/index.html

This should help with long-term strategy, as the two parties see eye to eye.

lol Cuomo actually said "Stop protesting. You won." what

"Stop protesting. You won"??? All that tells me is that the protests make Cuomo very, very uncomfortable and unhappy, as they are intended to.

Maybe the protestors have won the argument about whether black lives are held cheap by police forces and white society in general. But winning an argument won't protect black lives. It's all still broken as hell. Fix it. Then the protests can stop.

my understanding of history is that the losers don't get to dictate the terms of surrender by the victors

Montana had two D senators fairly recently! Jon Tester and Max Baucus overlapped in 2007-14.

I was a Montana voter for a good chunk of that. Could never understand what made the House seat so unattainable, through years of Dem senators and governors.

Wau @ Iowa senate race

The Iowa Poll released Saturday night showed Democratic Senate candidate Theresa Greenfield with major momentum.

Forty-six percent of likely voters would vote for Greenfield if the election were held today compared to 43% who would vote for Republican Sen. Joni Ernst -- a within the margin of error advantage for the challenger.

While it's still early and things could change, this Iowa poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., is the latest state survey for either the race for the White House or Senate to show a clear shift toward Democrats since protests began nationwide following the death of George Floyd at the hands of a white police officer.

And:

The latest state polls imply that Biden has a double-digit advantage nationally given that Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points. These state polls are in sync with the national polls that show Biden's lead at 10 points.

Importantly, many of these polls have been conducted across states that are the heart of the 2020 battleground. States like Arizona and Wisconsin are included in this group. Polls have also been conducted in states that Biden would like to win, but aren't must wins for him, such as Ohio and Texas. Crucially, these are demographically distinct states in different regions of the country indicating that Trump is losing ground in a lot of different places.

All together, it's the latest evidence that Trump cannot count on the electoral college to save him. The leads that Biden is earning right now are well outside any potential polling miscue like the one that occurred on the state level in 2016. The former vice president, simply put, is well ahead of Trump at this time

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/14/politics/state-polls-shift-democrats-since-protests/

Also fwiw the pollster for this Iowa poll has an a+ (the only one?) at 538

“We’re suing and we’re filing another the big lawsuit I think on Friday. And I think we have a good case. Newsom announced that he’s sending out millions and millions of mail-in, what’s called mail-in ballots. And, you know — you say, who’re they sending these to? And maybe who aren’t?

“Let’s say you take a Republican district, and maybe those ballots don’t get sent there, okay? This is the craziest thing. This is — this will be a rigged election if they’re allowed to do it. We’re fighting like crazy. If you take a look — you know we’ve won the last four elections.

“We won in Wisconsin, we won in North Carolina, we won two, you know that? Big. We won a very big one in California, first time in 22 years. But we’re fighting mail-in ballots. And in those cases they had a lot of mail-in ballots, which is incredible.

“But the chance of theft, where they steal them, they hold up mailmen, they take them out of mailboxes, they print them fraudulently.”

'Also, ducks fly out of my ass, you wouldn't believe it, beautiful ducks, perfect ducks, trust me, I've seen them'

https://frinkiac.com/meme/S08E19/810709.jpg?b64lines=IE1SUy4gS1JBQkFQUEVMIEFORAogUFJJTkNJUEFMIFNLSU5ORVIgV0VSRSBJTgogVEhFIENMT1NFVCBNQUtJTkcgQkFCSUVTCiBBTkQgSSBTQVcgT05FIE9GIFRIRQogQkFCSUVT

idek what thread this goes under but the shooting in abq is....not the best thing to have happened

story here https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/502879-man-shot-in-protest-over-statue-of-spanish-conquistador-in

surprised it took this long, tbh. the administration has explicitly been calling for people to "defend their second amendment rights" against the "liberal mob".

it's not good that someone got shot, but I liked the statements from the governor and mayor and especially the photos of cosplay militia being arrested; more of that please

yeah I inferred from "not the best" that it was a protester who shot a militia guy...this is of course terrible but I am bracing for the incident that they can leverage to fully animate their Antifa fantasy

haven't brought myself to go peek at my racist NM family's FB feeds to see what they're saying about this but given that they all want to murder Grisham and think removing confederate statues is the worst thing to ever happen in history, I'm sure their take is pretty twisted.

(checked.....crickets)

“If we stop testing right now,” the president said, “we’d have very few cases, if any.”

Baudrillard to thread

That's how Jurassic Park got fuxxored in the book. Flawed testing

the incident is confusing, and in an ominous way, because the shooter WASN'T with the militia. it was just a guy with a sidearm (not uncommon here) who started shit with protestors (including possibly pepperspraying people) and when they got mad at him he tried to run away and then showed his gun. some protestor (looked black bloc-y? on the video) went after him with a skateboard and may have been the one shot

the militia then moved in and separated the gunman from the crowd till the police came, "keeping the peace"

this is unsettling to me because it perfectly illustrates that it's the "random dude who everday carries" who's LIKELY to be way more dangerous than the LARPing militiamen. he created a dangerous situation and then shot someone in a panic. the right paints it as the mob trying to kill a guy (and some people were yelling "i'm going to kill you!") who uses a gun in self-defense, and then the law-abiding militia settles things down until the cops show up. the left tries to paint it as a gun-toting militia guy murdering someone because he's a fascist boogaloo boy and it turns out not be true, which makes the left look sensational/hysterical

bad scene man

to be clear, the reason this is ominous to me is that some kind of larger incident could be set off by an individual actor not there to Start Shit but who just does something fucking stupid, plenty of THOSE guys around

this is a B+ pollster

MICHIGAN
Biden 55% (+16)
Trump 39%

EPIC-MRA 5/31-6/4

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 16, 2020

wow even the MRA movement is voting for Biden over Trump

yes wild that Moral Re-Armament came back from the dead to support Biden!

/ s

People can feel however they want about the 538 forecasting model (which hasn't started up for 2020 yet), but their poll aggregation page is the best I've seen
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

RealClearPolitics does one too, but then you have to see their right-wing ads and content, and I've noticed they tend to drag their heels with posting new numbers when Trump et al have a bad polling cycle (or is that my imagination?): https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I love that the Economist open-sourced their model and dataset, but the dataset has had typos and errors in it every day so far, which doesn't inspire confidence no matter how neat the model itself is.

Georgia with Biden +2%! No wonder Gov. Kemp is working so hard to suppress votes in black and urban areas

An “opportunity to co-sign President Trump’s executive order” in exchange for campaign cash.
Is this a joke?
Or solicitation of a bribe?
Or both? pic.twitter.com/Vd1Jc2w9Rc

— Richard W. Painter (@RWPUSA) June 16, 2020

nevermind the commentary (it's not a joke, it's not a bribe, it's just extremely dumb and tacky, like most other actions from this administration)

can someone confirm for me that I didn't hallucinate trump saying "we strive to deliver safe, beautiful, elegant justice"

I mean he also said "we're fighting for school choice, which really is the civil rights of all time in this country. Frankly school choice is the civil rights statement of the year."

He's like one of those cans that you turn over and it makes a moo-ing sound except every time he makes a moo-ing sound people for some reason pretend that it's any more complex or profound or meaningful or thought-out than a fucking moo.

He's more like one of those cow keychains you squeeze to make the poop come out:

https://www.humorcreativity.com/store/images/naughty_cow.jpg

they make a Trump one of those. some really annoying lady at the bar showed it to me once

in my experience calling a girl annoying is guy for "im gonna try and fuck that chick". its an instant break up in my book.

-- sunny successor, Wednesday, March 5, 2008 1:47 PM

while that might normally be the case with me, this was someone who was yammering drunkenly at me for 15 minutes while I awaited for my friends to show up at the bar, and wouldn't stop showing me the Pooping Trump, as if it was the Ark of the Covenant or something.

canonical post xp

it does contain a high degree of accuracy

don't stop with the cops

.@RepBarbaraLee (D-Calif.) today released 10 options for cutting US military budget, seeking to reduce Pentagon spending by $350 billion

Ideas include: Eliminating Space Force; reducing military presence in Afghanistan; closing 60% of foreign baseshttps://t.co/l2CegqfrRP pic.twitter.com/hb5XITiqrQ

— Jeffrey Stein (@JStein_WaPo) June 16, 2020