Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

I don't think any states will go under lockdown again, no matter how bad it gets. The feds aren't going to do any of the things that made it vaguely feasible in the first place.

According to Google, yesterday the new case count in Michigan was 108 - the lowest count of new cases since mid-March.

Some bars opened in MI this week and I saw a picture of a big line of maskless people waiting to get in to a college town drinking establishment exactly as they were in mid March after classes were cancelled but before things shut down. I’ll see what happens in two weeks.

the strip clubs reopened in Cocoa. cos that's a good idea.

i'm pretty sure they're not socially distancing, unless they're getting lap dances from women on stilts

Ours reopened with no lap dances, so you're just going to throw dollars on the main stage I guess?

Given that situation, I'd prefer the Portland drive-thru strip club model. At least that's funny.

do you pull up to the drive-thru window and instead of getting a Big Mac thru the window, u get a butt

I think you end up getting both.
https://www.insider.com/oregon-strip-club-drive-thru-show-and-takeout-food-coronavirus-2020-4

RE: Michigan counts - it looks like the spike in cases some are reporting is due to a new classification of "probable" cases being included in the overall counts instead of just "confirmed" new cases. http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/did-michigans-coronavirus-cases-spike-last-weekend-yes-and-no/ar-BB15kU0r?ocid=ientp

I find the reporting (both from the states and from the, well, reporters) to be very muddled and unclear. As far as I can tell, there are places with rising positives, but that's because of more testing. There are also states with rising positives but flat hospitalizations, which isn't terrible in and of itself. Then there are places with rising positives *and* rising hospitalizations, which seems less good, but also as far as I can tell the hospitals across the board have said they are in a much better position now (in terms of preparation, equipment, and so on) than they were at the start, and that even in places with increased hospitalizations, afaik no hospitals are currently being flooded with Covid patients. But I do think doctors and hospitals (and sure, reporters, if not necessarily states) are keeping an eye on those ICUs. "Flatten the curve" never meant "reduce to zero" or "prevent all illness and death," it was always intended to give the hospitals space to work with those who need them the most. So far that plan seems to be holding within whatever margin, but as always this thing runs on a two week lag, more or less. All they/we can do is check back in a couple of weeks and check the numbers.

But anyway, an ancillary is that *no* states ever really went on lockdown, let alone enforced one. To a large extent it's always seemed to be up to individuals, with some degree of guidance and restriction. The question is how long will people in places where mitigation efforts are apparently working stick with it and, conversely, in places where they never tried that hard in the first place, what if needed will it take citizens to implement social distancing policies and so on *without* government guidance? Because god knows in places like Florida, Georgia, the usual suspects, what you got from the state is probably about as good as you'll ever get from those in charge.

Yeah. I've repeatedly written that Miami-Dade and Broward counties have responded as if it were autonomous states.

check back in August

it won't be pretty

A physician friend who's been on the front lines in Brooklyn says things there at least will be slower until October, when he's planning on the flu + the rona to fuck things up bigger than so far. He's taking a vacation now in anticipation of the hell to come.

Heard a doc on the radio say his number one recommendation right now is to get your flu shot this year ASAP, not only because it covers even more strains than usual (I think) but because it will make it much easier to eliminate (or at least lessen) the flu as the source of Covid-like symptoms should the fabled Next Wave manifest itself. And also give the docs even more breathing space.

Looking at covidexitstrategy.org, a lot of states, even the usual suspects with current increases, have doubling rates around 30 days or so or much higher. For example, New York's right now is 301 days, but at its peak it was doubling every day. Illinois at its peak was every two days, now it is down to 92 days. For comparison, Arizona and Alabama are currently on track to double at less than 20 days, with a couple of other states nipping at their heels, but no one is close to past peaks (yet), and hospital capacity is holding (so far). And FWIW, those states doing worse right now were never particularly trying hard in the first place, so it could be much worse. And maybe it will be.

We have riding cases, riding positivity %, and rising hospitalizations here, so not good

*rising

It's mind boggling and depressing that we've mostly been keeping things in check and not letting it get out of hand until right now, three months in.

i think the US is taking the path that other countries are starting to take - accepting that there will be a lot of deaths, normalizing it, and moving on. there was a NYT story on that last night, although that one focused on countries that are re-opening due to economic hardship - iran, india, mexico (which never "shut down"), and others.

i'd blame it all on trump and his croneys, but it's the governors deciding when to re-open.

oops, sorry forgot which thread this was

it's all the same thread though, literally

i think the US is taking the path that other countries are starting to take - accepting that there will be a lot of deaths, normalizing it, and moving on. there was a NYT story on that last night, although that one focused on countries that are re-opening due to economic hardship - iran, india, mexico (which never "shut down"), and others.

All the crap countries led by right wing wankers you mean?

It is a death cult, after all.

Yeah, I don't know what "other countries" are being referred to---the UK?

In France and Germany, for instance, no such acceptance of mass death has taken place.

The UK, like I said, crap countries led by right wing wankers. Actually England, to be accurate.

Another one: just heard a segment of Australian breakfast radio from Tuesday, where the mother of three on the four-person hosting team sent a soothing message to children returning to school, reminding them that everything wasn't back to normal today, we're just rolling back into it, rolling back into it.

The three-hour daily broadcast continues to have all its half-dozen daily guests appear down the phone line.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/world/coronavirus-reopenings.html

countries cited: Russia, Mexico, India, Colombia, South Africa, and oblique references to "Latin America".

i'm just accepting that life is ruined

xp: The Prime Minister not only took his kids out of school a month before closing schools for other people, he removed them from the state altogether.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vb7htoJAK7g

the US is taking the path that other countries are starting to take - accepting that there will be a lot of deaths, normalizing it, and moving on

this overlooks the fact that with sufficient resources for testing and tracing and for inspecting businesses for compliance with announced public health restrictions, epidemiologists and public health officials know how to apply those resources to slow the spread of the virus considerably, thus reducing the numbers of deaths in a very large way. the stay-at-home orders were never intended as the primary tool for addressing the pandemic, but were only a stopgap to buy time for the correct infrastructure to be put in place.

many of those "other countries" Karl mentioned are far poorer than the USA, but amazingly the USA is still not producing nearly enough test kits, N95 masks, gloves and gowns to meet the amount required to follow the normal procedures for containing epidemics. the problem isn't solved. everyone just got tired of pointing at it and talking about it, and seeing little or no effective response.

for sure. i didn't overlook it, fwiw, i just didn't mention it. the US is in a very different situation than any other country (other than maybe Brazil?) due to the trump administration. it's clear, trump and his team have moved on, and they're done talking about it - at least until the second wave hits and they're forced to again. but if it was up to them, accepting a high death toll and looking the other way would have been the very first and only "strategy"

Not sure where to put this one. My former downstairs neighbor had the cops called on her because her disabled son wasn’t wearing a mask at a Boston Market

https://www.google.com/amp/s/6abc.com/amp/coronavirus-jenkintown-child-kicked-out-of-boston-market-incident-masks/6242854/

That's absolutely appalling, that makes me so angry ghgffhcsdfxvjg

Yeah my son is way too wiggly and sensory-troubled for long-term mask wearing. We were able to keep him mostly masked during a haircut yesterday but he was clearly miserable. I think "best effort" in higher-contact situations is as good as it'll get.

As I've mentioned, my wife works in an urgent care clinic. In absence of available testing, we had been allowing ourselves a hopeful fantasy that:

a.) she probably had already been exposed early on before all the ppe became standard and she likely brought it home and we were all just lucky asymptomatic carriers
b.) having it might possibly mean that you build up immunity and can't contract it again.

Well, she finally got a chance to take an antibody test last week and it just came back negative, so part a is out the fucking window.

fwiw I don't know a single person yet who thinks they could have had it that tested positive for antibodies. The couple next door are an ER doc and a nurse, and they both think they (and their kids) had it in February, but back then they couldn't get a test. They're scheduled for an antibody test in a couple of weeks, iirc, and they're both pretty confident they'll be positive - the doc even thinks he knows the patient that gave it to him - but I'm curious. I want to say I read some stat about how few people are actually testing positive for antibodies, which implies it's not the silent pervasive spreader some thought/hoped it would be. Certainly current spikes in cases and hospitalizations show that it's still got a long way to circulate.

every time I've gone to get tested the line was around the block, which on the one hand I suppose is better than there being nobody there, but since I consolidate errands into one day to minimize going out, it means I haven't gotten it done yet. (and even if I do, I still kind of suspect I had it in January.)

So...have libraries reopened in your counties and cities? Ours did for curbside delivery in early May (a lifesaver), and they opened their doors again last Monday.

My closest branch is the regional one a mile and a half away: an ugly late '70s structure with a huge atrium. An employee guards the door. You must wear a mask at all times (as you must in any interior space in Miami-Dade). Tables are set up as much as 10 feet apart. I went twice last week and counted no more than eight or nine people. Even the public computers, reduced from 20 to 10, only had three people using them. People using tables stuck to their laptops and didn't move an inch.

In other words, I felt comfortable to linger for about an hour to read and finish work. Now I wonder if I did the right thing.

Our libraries have yet to reopen, hoping it's soon. The day they shut down our office in mid-March, just before everything else got shutdown I made plans to stop in the next morning to stock up - unfortunately they made the decision to not open back up that same night. So I'm ready.

According to my mother, my brother and his wife have moved into the "this is all just the flu" camp and aren't taking any precautions at all. My sister-in-law started back up at her job, at a daycare center (which, to be fair, wasn't her idea) yet they still insist on visiting my mom and stepdad every weekend.

it's been two weeks since i attended a protest and... i think i'm fine?

might get tested later this week just to see but iirc the WHO itself is backing down on the asymptomatic carrier narrative

driving around this weekend, you'd swear everything was back to normal. farmer's markets are open. the annual garage sale event in our town is still on. our neighbor across the yard had a massive party with well over 40 people. nobody's wearing a mask at the grocery store. all while we've posted our highest # of confirmed cases. my wife is gonna be ordered back to work next month and I'll be alone with the kids. I feel like I'm going nuts. Why am I even bothering trying to be careful right now

Stats in Texas, and various other parts of the country, are worse now than they ever had been in the past 3 months. I do not think states are going to be able to continue encouraging re-opening for much longer. I expected one or two states will give up fairly quickly and reimpose stricter measures, and other states will then feel like they can follow suit. What's going on right now is very obviously not working.

Most things are open here. I expect, absent some catastrophe, I'll have the option to return to my office sometime in July.

Why am I even bothering trying to be careful right now

This is where I've spent a lot of time this weekend. Like, what's the point of the last three months, if everyone is just going to go back out and spread it just as recklessly as if we hadn't bothered at all? My state is still one of the best in terms of decreasing cases, but it's not going to matter when I keep seeing people taking off for vacations in other states.

Thirded.

Our library is opening for curbside only pretty soon. I think I saw they had a backlog of 10000 books to procure! But it's going to be a while before the building itself opens to the public. Illinois is being pretty conservative, which is to say, safe and smart. For example, I think we've hit Phase 4 benchmarks, but they are still enforcing a wait until the official day. My same doctor neighbor, by the way, told me this weekend that based on what he has seen in the ER, the city/state is doing great, and he's not worried about a big Covid return here as long as everyone continues to follow guidance. Which they seem to be.

Our farmer's market "opened," too, with significant restrictions on interaction. Spacing, crowd, and so on. I think you can order produce for pickup, though.

Katherine, re: testing here, I got tested for antibodies a few weeks ago, and it was so fast it was practically over before it began. Made an appointment the day before, had a five minute video consult, went in the next day, they scanned my insurance and then I went next door for the needle. The bloodwork part took literally 5 seconds, and I got my (negative) results 2 days later.

iirc the WHO itself is backing down on the asymptomatic carrier narrative

not true, this was bungled messaging which was quickly amplified by a million sources (WHO walked it back shortly thereafter)

re: what's the point if everyone around us is fucking up?

every day you can postpone getting it is another day for advances in treatment/vaccines. you might appreciate that if you end up getting a moderate to severe case, which often has very long detrimental and lasting effects

Just because a lot of people are acting like it doesn't matter anymore doesn't mean you have to give up on what you think are reasonable measures. I feel pretty strongly that these people are simply wrong and it's going to become very apparent quickly.