rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

the betting markets have shifted from about trump 49 biden 42 to almost even in the past like 4 days

xp is he?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

i was only making fun of the "lol 3 of my friends have turned on Trump, print it, the tide is turning" tweet for the most part

Yeah, it's very much in the tradition of enlightened/woke toddler Twitter.

It seems more notable how little deviation there has been in the polling since the end of 2017 - he just bounces around within the margin of a 42% approval no matter what.

his approval ratings are nowhere near his low at this point, but they definitely have sunk. and I wouldn't be surprised if his approval goes down to 42%, but.....I've been wrong the last 7000 times I predicted that.

yeah, there was a lot more fluctuation going on his first year in office. a few polls had him in the lower 30s and he was averaging in the 30s at points. since tax reform, he kinda just goes up and down, up and down, kinda like

a see saw

I think it's inevitable that there will be some increased discontent with him due to news images of protest and riot nationwide. But remember that some of that discontent is from law and order conservatives who want him to squash the protests. I wouldn't fantasize that any of those people have gone BLM, and when the protests subside, those people will probably go back to him rather than switching.

Trump has virtually no room for error, think of all the things that had to go right for him to beat* the most disliked Dem candidate ever in 2016. Trump's re-election chances felt very real before 2020 in that the economy was good, we weren't at war, and unless you lived in Puerto Rico or were a minority the president probably hasn't fucked you over that badly. now there are over 100k dead & 40 million unemployed, with no end to the pandemic in sight, and that was before one of the biggest protests in American history where the POTUS straight up declared war on the American people. this is not a good time to be an American. even the people I know who reliably vote red can feel it.

I mean I definitely think Trump can be beaten but I always thought that. maybe he'll shapeshift

into what, an elephant turd?

A rotting corpse, god willing

it's a completely arbitrary point of contention but I respect the weird political sticker truck guy that was posted on twitter for going with "black live matters" as his taped-on slogan

it's the new slogan line that people and corporations won't cross, due to the prior efforts that were somehow shrugged off. you can say equality, even police brutality, but if you post "black lives matter" then the idiot brigade appears. if you don't post it, then you're shying away from the sentiment that matters

it'll probably lose its weight, or I actually hope it does at it becomes the common currency, but for now it's an arbitrary line

I mean, someone is going to do a "black, south asian, East Asian, African, European, Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, aboriginal, native, First Nations lives matter" post eventually followed by some idiot asking "what about white lives? American white lives?" and the response will ask on what day and time they didn't and we'll have hit the end game of righteous indignation

In Indiana's open primary, with about 72% of the vote in, Bill Weld, who dropped out of the presidential race 6 months ago, has gotten 7.8% of the Republican vote.

Like the Dem primaries, I assume it's going to effect delegate representation?

I think Josh is making the point that nearly 8% of likely Republican voters in Indiana fucking hate Trump.

Yeah. At least. Not only that, these are Republicans who went out during a pandemic, etc., to expressly *not* vote for Trump in a GOP primary.

Yeah I'm glad individuals are changing their views, tbc, I'm just skeptical that there are enough of them to the point that "something is happening." BC I've been hearing that claim since pre-November 2016, and it never seems to materialize into anything meaningful. But I am ready to be pleasantly surprised.

His party lost 40 house seats

xpost don't wanna build too much of a lead too early, then Trump will fake his death, and re-enter the race under a pseudonym

His party lost 40 house seats

Oh good milo’s here

so? 40 house pickup was the largest gains made since 1974 in the House and the third-biggest gain by any party in the last 40 years. I wish the 63 in 2010 didn't always get trotted out like it's the only benchmark of solid gains.

largest *Democratic* gains

one of the reasons why the dems took the house in 2018 is that many voters changed their mind about Trump, is all I'm saying. whether they were regretful trump voters, or non-voters in 2016.

yeah, it was a statement

8% of Trump voters went Democrat in 2018 (of the people who voted), according to this exit poll. It's not nothing.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls

I cannot imagine many voters who changed their minds about Trump sufficiently to vote against Republicans in 2018 will have changed their minds back again to a favorable view based on his subsequent performance in office.

I wish the 63 in 2010 didn't always get trotted out like it's the only benchmark of solid gains.

I didn’t trot it out as any kind of benchmark. It was in response to the idea about drawing conclusions about the Presidential election from a disastrous first midterm. Bill Clinton beat Dole’s ass and Obama whipped Romney’s.

And this is a guy who “won” by like, what, under 50,000 votes combined, across a few swing states?

Exactly. In 2019 you could maybe make the case “he really hasn’t been that bad”, that is if you’re a white dude with a 401k who thinks “climate change is all part of a natural pattern”. I don’t see how you make that argument now. Who does he gain in 2020 that he didn’t have in 2016? Even the fucking Evangelicals are turning against him.

It was in response to the idea about drawing conclusions about the Presidential election from a disastrous first midterm. Bill Clinton beat Dole’s ass and Obama whipped Romney’s.

Well yeah, anything could happen in November

We have five months of COVID, civil unrest, a greater depression and a senile gaffe machine running in opposition. Two weeks ago people were crowing about Biden's lead with senior citizens because of the pandemic... how do those senior citizens feel about tens of thousands of young people of color marching in the streets? No chance that drives them back into the loving arms of the reactionaries.

Drawing lessons from the past, up to and including last week, or making any guesses about the future, including tomorrow, seems foolhardy at this point.

Don't get me wrong, I think he stands a good chance of losing from our current vantage point - I mean, tanking economy, pandemic, nationwide police-protestor clashes. The Democrats have also managed to put up an exceptionally mediocre candidate though, and I also just feel like I've heard it all before about why people who supported trump will finally turn on him.

Not to mention - just like in 2016 - there's always tons of people who will support him without publicly saying so.

and on that day, june 3, 2020, the very last guess about the future was made

there is nothing wrong with guessing about the future, and it's pointless to pretend that people won't do it. the more important thing, i think, is to think about the future with a degree of humility that reflects how uncertain it is

the important thing is to edit your posts retroactively to make it look like u were right all along

We should be worried and sad all the time though because the future might suck and then what do we do? At least if we’re worried and sad we can say “I told you so!” to our neighbors, who we suspect voted for Trump

and they definitely did, fucking neighbors

We can be worried and sad for everything all the time that's happening today AND in the future, come on now.

neighbor to the left has a Confederate/"don't tread on me" mashup flag and neighbor to the right is a Hell's Angel...I suspect they're voting for Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho.

the future might suck

might

Say what you want about eating beef bile cheesecake on camera for lols but dude’s got 16 million subs

In Indiana's open primary, with about 72% of the vote in, Bill Weld, who dropped out of the presidential race 6 months ago, has gotten 7.8% of the Republican vote.

― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, June 2, 2020 10:43 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Weld also got 9% in Nebraska a few weeks ago.

In private polling conducted by Mr. Trump’s campaign, the president is now well behind Mr. Biden, according to people briefed on the most recent round of results. Multiple public surveys this week have found Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden, the former vice president, by double-digit margins, including a Monmouth University poll published on Wednesday that showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 percentage points....

....But Mr. Trump’s belligerent response to protests after the killing of George Floyd, a black man, while in the custody of white police officers in Minneapolis, appears to have worsened his political position even further, officials in both parties said. On an almost daily basis, he has issued a combination of wild threats and complaints about news media coverage and other personal grievances.

“There is no obvious strategy in terms of message,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist based in California. “The president defaults to base messages regardless of strategy, thus the campaign becomes a base-driven campaign.”

Signs of anxiety inside the Trump team are evident across the electoral map. Over the past few weeks, the president’s operation has spent about $1.7 million on advertising in just three states he carried in 2016 — Ohio, Iowa and Arizona — that it had hoped would not be competitive at all this year. Much of that sum went to a concentrated two-week barrage in Ohio, according to the media-tracking firm Advertising Analytics.

The spending in Ohio startled many Republicans, given that four years ago Mr. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton there by eight percentage points.

Perhaps just as telling were two trips last month to Georgia by Vice President Mike Pence. The state has become a source of nagging concern to Republicans, both because of the stakes in the presidential race and because there are two Senate seats up for election this year, including one held by a highly unpopular appointee, Senator Kelly Loeffler, who has been snared in a personal financial scandal.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/us/politics/trump-campaign-virus-protests-polls.html

^ Disrespectful to the purview of this thraed imo, why u step on our doomsaying

trump is gonna win...2nd place

https://d146tiw5d2a33m.cloudfront.net/product_images/6853GOM.jpg?width=328&height=297