love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

The SAGE advice seems to suggest that if the R number is substantially below 1 then there might be ways to partially open schools and not immediately return to exponential growth but if it's pretty close to 1 then there probably isn't.

Current estimates are somewhere between 0.7 and 1, but they can't be more specific than that - so there's no way to show that re-opening schools wouldn't lead to exponential growth again.

Given that we have been in lockdown for two months, and as blase as Britishes have been about lockdown there's been relatively little movement between regions afaik. So the R number could be substantially lower in some parts of the country than in others.

The R number isn't the only consideration here, it's about the prevalence of the virus more generally. It's less safe to open schools in areas that are coming down from a higher peak.

Although the communications are enough of a mess without throwing regional variations in on top of that.

They are going to need to get really unambiguously clear on comms if they want R to drop further because it's getting proper busy out now. I had to wait to cross the road, ffs

so anyone coming into the uk who breaks the 14-day isolation will pay a £1000 fine on the very small chance that they’re found out

so basically rich people have carte blanche to do whatever the fuck they want, who’d have guessed it

I know of one rich person who has five trips booked in the next four weeks. All the tickets in her name.

Wonder if that surveillance infrastructure they built to monitor poor immigrants will swing into action to stop her.

taking all bets

CLAP THE CUNT IN IRONS

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/22/dominic-cummings-durham-trip-coronavirus-lockdown

Police spoke to Dominic Cummings about breaching the government’s lockdown rules after he was seen in Durham, 264 miles from his London home, despite having had symptoms of coronavirus

At the time, the government had instructed people not to travel and to stay at their family homes. Cummings, however, was seen in Durham. A member of the public is understood to have seen him and made a complaint to the police.

lol

I feel like phoning someone to complain every time I see him too.

His parents can't exactly be spring chickens so what exactly was he doing visiting them a few days after displaying symptoms? This can only be attempted murder as far as I'm concerned.

I know it’s Laura K, but she’s now tweeting in defence of Cummings, clearly on behalf of Cummings, in reply to the journalist who broke the story? fucking hell

Source says his trip was within guidelines as Cummings went to stay with his parents so they could help with childcare while he and his wife were ill - they insist no breach of lockdown

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) May 22, 2020

how the fuck is any of that within the guidelines

He who writes the guidelines can bend the guidelines

my wife’s been ill on and off for weeks and my parents live a lot closer than 250 miles, if only i’d known i could just pop my daughter over to see them because it’s been challenging sometimes

Yes, there’s no fucking way it’s in the guidelines, apart from a passing ref from Deputy CMO made weeks after his trip. Wonder if he’ll last until next PMQs

Knight Andrew Lilico
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYpuzYRWoAMMWsk?format=jpg&name=large

There are several Laura K tweets after that suggesting this isn't going away.

Given that virtually everyone - the media, the civil service, rival Brexiter camps, is desperate to get rid of Cummings this might be the start of open season on him. I wonder if Johnson has convinced himself he can't survive without him or if Cummings has something else on him.

Yes, I think there’s a reasonable chance this does for him.

The five-dimensional chess master, undone by a nosy neighbour who dobbed him in to the filth

What is Lolico for? Is there a soul alive who doesn't think he's a lickspittle cunt?

yes, and his name is andrew lolico

Johnson has presumably been protecting him too - he was ill at the same time, so might have some room to say he didn’t know he’d done it.

What is Lolico for?

true satire or something, he's much funnier than any bbc comedy I can think of.

If he turned out to be a slow-burn parody account it would be surprising, but not *that* surprising.

Remember this? How does a person even dare to assert that this is the opinion they hold?

There is not a "huge problem with racism and prejudice across the whole uk political spectrum". Just in the Corbynite bit of Labour. The rest of the UK mainstream political spectrum isn't racist at all. https://t.co/VDpkJORrH4

— Andrew Lilico (@andrew_lilico) April 2, 2018

The Cummings farrago is the first news story to give me genuine pleasure in months. Will be less pleasurable if he manages to squirm out of it with job intact.

Which he will.

Talking of squirming, watching BBC Breakfast this morning it was painful to watch Naga Munchetty having act as Dominic Cummings' defence counsel when interviewing Ian Blackford - I know that's what she's paid for but ffs.

The "I was just looking after my family" defence appears to have only made people angrier. Its also full of holes re: the claim that it was all within the rules really.

First genuine test of Sir Forensic next week I think. Boris hasn't stepped up to defend Cummings yet either fwiw.

More to the point playing fast and loose with the rules in order to defend your mate when he broke them is going to sow more confusion with the wider public and lead to unnecessary deaths.

No 10 official statement doesn’t say they stand behind him either - says Cummings believes he did nothing wrong, which is leaving a canyon right in front of him by their standards.

http://www.thebohemianblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Rasputin-Story-1a-VISION.jpg

I don't recall the BBC expecting interviewers to put Catherine Calderwood's side of the story when she got caught redhanded - or that guy who was popping out for a quick shag.

I mean on one hand this is an absolutely classic "don't become the story" but really he's going to stand or fall on the extent to which Johnson feels he can't do without him. There can't be a shortage of people to replace him with but maybe Cummings has convinced Johnson he has some special magical dark arts disruptive shit that none of the others have.

I can see him resigning and then being brought back into the fold later on when this has died down. Mandelson managed to pull that trick twice and even Alistair Campbell managed to come back once.

Yes, I think a short spell to be off writing blogs and then a return in time for Brexit. Christ, if Patel can get back in then Cummings can.

I think if there was even a remote chance of him resigning you wouldn’t have Raab and Sunak out there caping for him but idk.

Gove too - all coordinated.

Yes, they are beyond shame now.

I think the resignation comes, if it does, partly because of the drubbing all three are now getting. As well as the usual lot this is outraging precisely those people that Tories listen to: cross grandparents.

Well, you would think so, but UK oldsters are increasingly showing signs of Trumpian delusional behaviour.

this feels like getting al capone for tax fraud, ngl

also dunno how much the tories are truly listening to the demographic that they cheerfully decided to lead to its own extinction earlier this year

Cummings knows where the bodies are buried. The wagons are already circled.

Capone went to prison, lost his marbles due to syphilis, died a dribbling vegetable. Don't see the problem there.

also dunno how much the tories are truly listening to the demographic that they cheerfully decided to lead to its own extinction earlier this year

And who are cheerfully still supporting them.

That's the thing - I don't think they are circled. People on the payroll (and Lolico) are speaking up, but as far as I can see hardly anybody else is, most of the usual outriders are calling for him to go.

"It's not a crime to look after your children" is a terrible message to a set of people that haven't seen adult children+ grandchildren for months — and who you are asking to continue not seeing them. A route out of this might have been "yes he did wrong but", but this lot are literally incapable of admitting even the tiniest error, let alone this.

i think there are two components to the defence: 1. to obfuscate exactly what he did and 2. to emphasise how what he did was nbd

so how he gets nailed is if it can be shown very clearly 1. what he did and 2. why it is a bd

Tory backbenchers are getting restless and aggy as well, you can tell. And a lot of them hate Cummings, so there's hay to be made there.

One of the reasons Starmer was able to force a u-turn on the NHS surcharge was because Johnson was already weak there - it was already a bone of contention on the Conservative benches (plus it was unpopular with the wider country).

what i am not understanding at all is the 'travelled 250 miles so his parents could help with childcare'

were they travelling in the opposite direction? did his children come with him? this is so nuts i can't even cope with the reasoning

I would expect Dominic Cummings' children to have been able to show sufficient fight and self-sufficiency to look after themselves if both their parents were incapacitated and if the house burned down in the meantime then too bad. After all they could just rebuild it themselves.