rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-older-voters-turning-away-from-trump/

― Karl Malone

Even though it assumes a simple-minded ossified politics that drives me to despair, I think that just as much as Trump's bungling coronavirus, the fact that Joe Biden is a very old white man, who is identified with past politics, is a major factor in the defection of older voters from Trump. They can easily imagine him as president, as opposed to 'that woman' or a 'that socialist'; they trust him to think like one of them, not like somebody with all these strange new ideas. iow, all the same reasons why under-30s look at Biden and want to gouge out their own eyes.

I think saying he's bad at his job is one thing and saying he's incapable of caring about other people--saying he's Trump, essentially--are two different things.

This is sort or where I came into ILX 10 years ago (yikes): pushing back against the horror of horse-race politics. I don't see how threads on ILX that consist of people saying Trump-will-win/no-he-won't/Biden's-doomed/Warren-should-drop-out/Warren-should-stay-in/etc. are any different.

I don't think CNN offers an alternative to the idea that social and economic prosperity, let alone political success, are anything other than a zero-sum game where any republican loss is a gain for democrats, and a corresponding balance of the scales in international relations

Starting to think that maybe “lots of people really hate him” will be more of a deciding factor than I did some weeks ago.

OTOH scenes of widespread looting and lawlessness are the ideal Trump free campaign ad.

just deepfake it to look like Trump was all of the looters

Destroy: all newspaper columnist comparisons to "1968."

all the shots of police brutality will also be a pretty good campaign ad

I was on Facebook saying the same thing--that Nixon had to pay money for this ad in '68, whereas CNN provided him with one for free today (law-and-order speech on the left side of a split-screen, chaos on the right).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEdtwQ8OguY

I don't think it'll work, though. Nixon was (however phony his concern) responding to LBJ's chaos; Trump created this himself.

I don’t think people are going to be rational though, it’s a simple fear reaction and they’ll side with whoever projects toughness and an easy to understand moral schema that demonizes those in the images that scare them.

Imagine if there’d been a candidate who could clearly explain over and over that this is the result of inequitable systems, capitalism, and deliberate creation of division

I’m sure Joe Biden’s vision of “we’ll go back to training cops to shoot you in the lower half of the body, not the top. That’s my promise to you as a Biden” will cut through nearly as well, though

Comparisons to the '60s don't work because liberals are less racist - everyone to the left of Joe Manchin seems to be getting radicalized (in this one area) by all this bullshit. The people who'd latch onto an authoritarian daddy figure were already going to vote for Trump.

^^^ subject to change depending on how long active unrest governs everyone's life

Imagine if there’d been a candidate who could clearly explain over and over that this is the result of inequitable systems, capitalism, and deliberate creation of division

I think this is literally impossible for a huge number of Americans to ever comprehend

it'd help if they got to hear it a lot, though

From those condescending elitists? Pfft

I don’t think people are going to be rational though, it’s a simple fear reaction and they’ll side with whoever projects toughness and an easy to understand moral schema that demonizes those in the images that scare them.

Are you this dumb and easily manipulated? Then maybe don't assume "people" are.

i do think Trump could have used the protests to his advantage if he'd been capable of projecting any sort of gravitas or sobriety. he could even keep his fascism and his law & order bullshit if he'd just been able to be a little grave about it. but the only thing he ever knows how to do is escalate everything to a higher, more insane pitch and I do think there's a substantial set of low-information voters who will be swayed by whoever seems more likely to turn down the temperature.

Noted other places, but one reason he's suddenly on the pose-with-Bibles offensive (I guess he has another church photo op today?) could be due to weakening support among evangelicals. Grain/pillar of salt, etc.

xp unperson: But this is true. There are people like this. Lots of people. I live with some of them. They're watching CNN and supporting Trump and the cops.

Something changed last night. I am hearing from conservative friends and relatives in states like WV, VA, and SC who are finally done with Trump. One is writing in "Romney-Mattis." Another one is voting Biden. He just told me, "I want him [Trump] crushed."

— Matt Lewis (@mattklewis) June 2, 2020

oh cool it's all over!

Some guy is hearing from his friends!

Interested in the very specific breed of brainworm that causes someone to come up with “Romney-Mattis” as a write-in

I want him buried, so I'm gonna....write-in a vote!

I have a fantastic mental image of the Romney-Mattis person and the vibrant green of their incredibly well-manicured lawn.

They haven't read a book that wasn't about World War II since 1973.

The Good Republican Cavalry is on its way.

I think the guy's been found

I got home before the curfew but I passed this truck near 14th street and if this is you, please contact me. pic.twitter.com/r1zKD9990v

— Jane Coaston (@cjane87) June 2, 2020

They'll be here any day now xp

couldn't afford to buy the sticker huh

guys

George W. Bush published something.

The tide has changed. I can hear it.

can't wait to read "Curious George Understands Why We Shouldn't Do Stem-Cell Research"

not surprised by that truck, I feel like I worked with a lot of those dudes in construction

pale manifestations of enlightenment, but don't see why we should mock people who are at least thinking about and maybe reconsidering their positions

Dubya has earned being mocked for the rest of his life, at the very least

these people (other than the Romney-Mattis guy) aren't the butt of the joke. the tweeter is.

oh wait you were talking about Dubya, lol, that didn't even scan cos there's no way taht's happening

wasn't thinking about him

godDAMMIT

W was probably more responsible for the hyper-militarization of the police than any other president. I can't with this new "Gentle George" schtick.

How much credit do we need to give people for merely recognizing that a videotaped murder in broad daylight is a murder?

if you had told me we in 2010 that anyone in america would be looking to W for stable leadership within a decade...

I don’t know how much credit we have to give anyone; I don’t give myself much “credit” for learning and growing over the years, but I accept and recognize that I’ve made progress

Dan did just say he wasn't talkin about Dubya

I am definitely allowed to make “ROMNEY-MATTIS!” joeks though, nobody can take that from me

xxp fwiw I do think people we don't agree with are recalibrating their political opinions

let's pour one out for these three friends of the Daily Beast twitter guy that absolutely, definitely exist

IMO Dan S is trying to make a different, nuanced point and we are kind of being dicks

I mean I do think that I have never seen a more widespread recognition of a police murder as a murder by people across the spectrum. Even Trump kind of sort of tweeted a halfway version of that sentiment. So maybe we have reached some kind of watershed, with people primed by other widely publicized police murders of recent years combined with the fact that this one was just so egregiously obvious and lacking in any plausible justification or excuse. I guess there is some hope in that.