outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

things are gonna change, i can feel it

if assholes could fly this place would be an airport

a deep cut for the true heads:

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Screen-Shot-2020-05-05-at-9.14.07-AM.png

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/05/calibration-and-recalibration-and-more-recalibration-ihme-forecasts-by-publication-date/

the IHME model is garbage. we shouldn't have trusted it a month ago, and we shouldn't trust it now.

Just spent about 48 hours in the hospital due to a low platelet count -- basically, it's when chemo turns you into a bleeder in very frightening fashion. And my count isn't too high now, either. :/

I was given the swab test, am COVID negative.

ugh, get better Morbs :(

morbs <3

sounds hard and unpleasant. wish you the best morbs

Morbs glad you’re on the other side. Did you get any sleep?

Bon courage, Morbs. <3

that sounds shitty, and also i'm glad you tested negative. be well morbs

Fuck, that's scary, hope you are ok

Yikes — take care, Morbs.

Did you get any sleep?

That's always a fun morning question from the nurse when they've been waking you up every 2 hours to measure your vital signs.

(I can't even sleep when I know they're gonna do that.)

I wouldn’t either :(

I haven’t been woken up in the middle of the night as a patient, but I know from seeing it on the other side how people don’t really get any sleep in a hospital

shit Morbs, thinking of you

get better dr. m

Get well, Morbs!

been in enough hospitals to know its a shitty experience made slightly better by the fact you're getting help and the nurses understand it's a shitty experience and try to soften it a bit. glad you've been released, cuz that means the general trend is up, not down. get well(er), morbs.

actually the reason I was given for my release is "we can't wait/watch for it to happen," and indeed the problem has returned on a so-far-incidental scale.

Best wishes for better days

Best wishes Morbs

Take care, man.

best wishes Morbs

oof, best thoughts Dr. M.

take it easy morbs, feel better soon

thanks all

most amazingly I got a bed w/in 20 minutes of walking into the ER

Be well and maintain your crank, Morbsy.

good wishes morbs :)

Virtual hugs until I can give you a real one, Dr. Morbius!

Hope you feel better soon, Morbz

sending you good wishes Morbs

Good luck Dr. M

best wishes dr m

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/may/07/peru-jungle-iquitos-coronavirus-covid-19

A hospital in Alsace reports that they had a case of the virus already on 16 November.

I saw Goody Sibber with the virus in November

I saw Goody Proctor with the virus in August

Not sure how credible miscellaneous French doctors are, as a class or individually.

t'inquiètes, j'ai un ordonnance pour ça

I can't imagine a chest CT scan that reveals bilateral interstitial pneumonia would have much specificity - there are other diseases that have similar presentations. If there was a preserved blood sample from that 16 November patient for a rtPCR test, which has pretty much perfect specificity, though lackluster sensitivity, I'd give the report more credence.

i liked my joke better

lol

this is depressing as hell, passing along in case DJP or the late Fred B may find interesting
https://www.middleclassartist.com/post/nats-panel-of-experts-lays-out-sobering-future-for-singers-no-vaccine-no-safe-public-singing

I've been mostly avoiding CNN lately--Doomsday Central, which I hate; do not in any way take that as cutting slack for Trump--but I just watched the whole of this segment from last night's weekly town hall, Laurie Garrett, and she's really good.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/05/08/entire-may-7-coronavirus-town-hall-part-4-sot-vpx.cnn

Ya, I recently started following Laurie Garrett on Twitter. Once your emotions adjust to her "36 month best-case scenario" position, she's a welcome resource.

Another sobering read.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19#

The kind of piece that defines that self-censorship poll last week. I hesitate to link, but I will.

http://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic/

I realize it's written from the right and has a definite agenda. I'm aware of that, so I roll my eyes at things like "Was there a political element here in that the media blew this wildly out of proportion as revenge against Trump and his deplorables?"

I think the basic question, though--what changed between then and now?--is interesting. It goes along with something I said about CNN the other day, that they've become Doomsday Central. Trump and CNN right now are two sides of the same coin. Trump tries to sell you the Yellow Brick Road; with CNN, they're selling the end of the world. They do it because 1) they hate Trump and don't want him reelected--that's a good reason; 2) because something more nuanced than those two extremes is hard work and requires thought (the in-between is how I've experienced this: one bit of news looks promising, the next looks dire); 3) something more nuanced doesn't make for good TV (very influenced by Audience of One here.)

Something's obviously changed even between SARS and now.

Cable news and Donald Trump are two sides of the same heap of fecal matter is basically how I'd sum it up.

xpost talked a little bit about that here: Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020. several factual mistakes in the article, but he refuses to acknowledge them or amend his article (he wrote back to me defensively and ignored 85% of my points and just attached an academic article that didn't even bolster his point.

the basic difference is that 100,000 people died over 4 years whereas he tried to present it like they died in a similar timeframe to COVID, and lots of people likely had antibodies to this flu because it was similar to the 1957 flu.