outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

This tweet seems like not the right way to think about it? Seems more like the original models were terrible and they redid them with a drastic upward shift? I wouldn't expect them to stay 97 percent range if actual major reworking was done to shift upwards.

The CDC projection for 3,000 deaths a day is getting a lot of attention, as it should. But that is a 50th percentile projection. To date, actual deaths have ranged north of the 97th percentile. The 97th percentile projection for June 1 is 15,000 deaths per day. (1/2) https://t.co/TLNvzR7Ldj

— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) May 4, 2020

he's used to worst-case thinking cause his primary beat is climate change

It was the persistence of 97th percentile results that clued them in that their models had to be off. Assuming that 97th percentile results are somehow baked into the viral results, regardless of the model, is ass-backwards.

Lot of news in the past few days about how the IMHE model has been wrong. So what are the other models?

Not a fan of Nate Silver (a beef that has existed since his days at BaseballProspectus), but 538 has collected a half-dozen here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/

It was the persistence of 97th percentile results that clued them in that their models had to be off. Assuming that 97th percentile results are somehow baked into the viral results, regardless of the model, is ass-backwards.

― A is for (Aimless), Monday, May 4, 2020 3:57 PM bookmarkflaglink

yeah, being reactive is the complete opposite of a good model

IMHE just revised model to say 135k dead

lol nbd, just almost double the prediction

is this good news?

https://www.ibtimes.sg/scientists-find-human-antibody-47d11-that-neutralizes-covid-19-virus-infecting-living-cells-44388

It provides a promising avenue for further research, which is always a welcome development.

Especially for researchers

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/frances-patient-zero-died-of-coronavirus-in-december-doctor-says-samples-from-patients-with-flu-like-symptoms-tested-positive/ar-BB13Aj18

Paris doctor confirms COVID-19 presence Dec. 27th, 2019, which is 4 days before the first WHO-reported case in China.

Quoted in full https://pressthink.org/2020/05/the-plan-is-to-have-no-plan/

The plan is to have no plan, to let daily deaths between and one and three thousand become a normal thing, and then to create massive confusion about who is responsible — by telling the governors they’re in charge without doing what only the federal government can do, by fighting with the press when it shows up to be briefed or to ask questions, by fixing blame for the virus on China or some other foreign element, and by “flooding the zone with shit,” Steve Bannon’s phrase for overwhelming the system with disinformation, distraction, and denial, which boosts what economists call “search costs” for reliable intelligence.

Stated another way, the plan is to default on public problem solving, and then prevent the public from understanding the consequences of that default. To succeed this will require one of the biggest propaganda and freedom of information fights in U.S. history, the execution of which will, I think, consume the president’s re-election campaign. So much has already been made public that the standard script for a White House cover up (worse than the crime…) won’t apply. Instead, everything will ride on the manufacture of confusion. The press won’t be able to “expose” the plot because it will all happen in stark daylight. The facts will be known, and simultaneously inconceivable.

“The plan is to have no plan” is not a strategy, really. Nor would I call it a policy. It has a kind of logic to it, but this is different from saying it has a design— or a designer. Meaning: I do not want to be too conspiratorial about this. To wing it without a plan is merely the best this government can do, given who heads the table. The manufacture of confusion is just the ruins of Trump’s personality meeting the powers of the presidency. There is no genius there, only a damaged human being playing havoc with our lives.

Winston, first dog with Covid-19, completely fine.
https://boston.cbslocal.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3859903/2020/05/dog2.jpg

Kerala (pop 35 million) was first in India to get COVID. For past 2 days they have no new cases. The Communist controlled state has implemented “test, trace, isolate, support” & delivers free food & support to homes. In fascist controlled Indian states pandemic continues to grow.

— a$hok (@broseph_stalin) May 5, 2020

what happens in the commie nazi states?

huh, he's actually learned something?

"I used to say 65k and now I’m saying 80 or 90 and it goes up and it goes up rapidly"

Trump: That’s one of the reasons we’re successful, if you call losing 80k-90k people successful
Bret: That number has changed Mr. President. You said 60
Trump: I used to say 65k and now I’m saying 80 or 90 and it goes up and it goes up rapidly pic.twitter.com/v4FbbygF5Q

— Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) May 3, 2020

If u call losing successful
Im a winner

things are gonna change, i can feel it

if assholes could fly this place would be an airport

a deep cut for the true heads:

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Screen-Shot-2020-05-05-at-9.14.07-AM.png

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/05/calibration-and-recalibration-and-more-recalibration-ihme-forecasts-by-publication-date/

the IHME model is garbage. we shouldn't have trusted it a month ago, and we shouldn't trust it now.

Just spent about 48 hours in the hospital due to a low platelet count -- basically, it's when chemo turns you into a bleeder in very frightening fashion. And my count isn't too high now, either. :/

I was given the swab test, am COVID negative.

ugh, get better Morbs :(

morbs <3

sounds hard and unpleasant. wish you the best morbs

Morbs glad you’re on the other side. Did you get any sleep?

Bon courage, Morbs. <3

that sounds shitty, and also i'm glad you tested negative. be well morbs

Fuck, that's scary, hope you are ok

Yikes — take care, Morbs.

Did you get any sleep?

That's always a fun morning question from the nurse when they've been waking you up every 2 hours to measure your vital signs.

(I can't even sleep when I know they're gonna do that.)

I wouldn’t either :(

I haven’t been woken up in the middle of the night as a patient, but I know from seeing it on the other side how people don’t really get any sleep in a hospital

shit Morbs, thinking of you

get better dr. m

Get well, Morbs!

been in enough hospitals to know its a shitty experience made slightly better by the fact you're getting help and the nurses understand it's a shitty experience and try to soften it a bit. glad you've been released, cuz that means the general trend is up, not down. get well(er), morbs.

actually the reason I was given for my release is "we can't wait/watch for it to happen," and indeed the problem has returned on a so-far-incidental scale.

Best wishes for better days

Best wishes Morbs

Take care, man.

best wishes Morbs

oof, best thoughts Dr. M.

take it easy morbs, feel better soon

thanks all

most amazingly I got a bed w/in 20 minutes of walking into the ER

Be well and maintain your crank, Morbsy.

good wishes morbs :)

Virtual hugs until I can give you a real one, Dr. Morbius!